Total Precipitable Water fields over the western Pacific on 10/11 November 2024, above, show 4 tropical cyclones at different stages of development across the West Pacific. The screenshot from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, below, shows the 4 storms: Yinxing, about to make landfall in Vietnam, Toraji pulling away from the northern Philippines, Tropical Storm 27W in between the Marianas and the Philippines, and Man-yi moving through the Marianas. This screenshot from the CIMSS Tropical Weather website similarly shows the 4 storms lined up in a row.

Himawari-9 imagery, below, shows the two easternmost tropical cyclones. Mid-level water vapor imagery shows dry(ish) mid-level air between the two systems; total precipitable water imagery from (say) 1200 UTC on 11 November also shows a filament of relatively dry air that might influence the development of Man-yi, the easternmost system, in the short term. Clean window infrared imagery shows strong convection intermittently over both systems.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggests Man-Yi will move mostly west towards Guam, affecting the Marianas between 0000 and 1200 UTC on 13 November (this is late in the day on the 13th on Guam). As noted in this Facebook Live recording (from the Science and Observation Officer on Guam), the forecast path for Man-Yi has been evolving with time. Interests throughout the Marianas and Micronesia show pay attention to advisories on this storm, both from JTWC and from the National Weather Service on Guam.

---

On 10 November, GCOM-W1 overflew the developing system. Microwave information at 89 GHz is shown below with derived AMSR-2 surface wind speeds (imagery from Brandon Aydlett, SOO at NWS Guam); the imagery was produced by CSPP software operating on data downloaded at the Direct Broadcast antenna on Guam. Microwave data revealed a sheared system. A low-level swirl is centered near 16^oN Latitude, 154^oE Longitude, note the curved bands to the west and north (darker blue in the enhancement) and deep convection (yellow/red/brown in the enhancement) to the southeast of the low-level swirl. Derived wind speeds show values exceeding 40 knots underneath the strongest convection. (You can view AMSR-2 windspeed at the NASA Worldview site as well here)

---

A basin-wide Shear Analysis, below, from the CIMSS Tropical Weather Site (link), shows strong shear over the system at 1500 UTC on 10 November 2024. Man-Yi’s convection was between 150^o and 160^o E Longitude, and around 13^o N Latitude, as highlighted by the dark arrow below. Strong shear that is diagnosed over the system would displace the convection to the southeast of the near-surface circulation as shown in the microwave imagery above.

By 1500 UTC on 11 November, the shear over the system has weakened as the system approached 150^o E Longitude. Slow strengthening is forecast. The northern Marianas Islands are all under a Tropical Storm Watch.

Thanks to Brandon Aydlett, WFO GUM for the alert about this storm and for the imagery. Thanks also to Douglas Schumacher for the GCOM-W1 imagery. Note that there is more Guam-centered GCOM-W1 89 GHz imagery on 11 November in this blog post.

View only this post Read Less

5-minute CONUS Sector GOES-16 (GOES-East) Nighttime Microphysics RGB + daytime True Color RGB images from the CSPP GeoSphere site (above) displayed the nocturnal thermal signatures (darker shades of violet) of a few wildfires in the vicinity or the New Jersey-New York border — particularly that associated with the larger and persistent Jennings Creek Wildfire along the border — along with the distinct Jennings Creek Wildfire smoke plume that moved southeast across the New York City area and adjacent offshore waters during the day on 9th November 2024. The fire caused some local road closures, and there was 1 firefighter fatality.

GOES-16 Visible images with an overlay of the Fire Mask derived product (a component of the FDCA) (below) also displayed the Jennings Creek Wildfire thermal signature and smoke plume — plots of Ceiling and Visibility showed that this smoke occasionally reduced the surface visibility to 4-6 miles at a few of the New York City area airports (visibility in miles is the number plotted to the bottom left of each 4-letter station identifier).

A Pilot Report over far northeast New Jersey at 1550 UTC (below) indicated the presence of heavy smoke (+FU) at an altitude of 1700 ft — which was restricting the flight-level visibility to 1-1/2 statute miles.

GOES-16 Aerosol Optical Depth values over the NYC area were occasionally at or slightly above 1.0, as depicted by darker red pixels (below).

NEW INCIDENT – WILDFIRE ALERT: Jennings Creek Wildfire – West Milford, Passaic County@NJDEPForestFire is on scene of a wildfire burning in the area of Greenwood Lake Turnpike and East Shore Rd in West Milford, Passaic County. The fire is also burning in Orange County, New York. pic.twitter.com/fBo98MFVPh

— New Jersey Forest Fire Service (@njdepforestfire) November 9, 2024

View only this post Read Less

Hurricane Rafael is in the Gulf of Mexico, drifting to the west. The MIMIC Total Precipitable Water (TPW) animation, above, shows a notable thinning in the band of moisture connecting Rafael to deep tropical moisture located over the southern Caribbean Ocean. Dry air from the Yucatan is also wrapping into the circulation, and dry air is east of Rafael (over Florida), north of Rafael (along the southern Gulf Coast) and west of Rafael.

The animation below shows clear-sky Level 2 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) fields from GOES-16, with Band 13 imagery in regions where clouds are present. There is warming of the cold cloud tops during the 14 hours of the animation; one might also infer a decrease in TPW in the feed of moisture linking Rafael in the Gulf to the moisture in the southern/western Caribbean Sea — that is, an agreement with the MIMIC TPW fields above.

GOES-16 Water Vapor infrared imagery (Band 9, “Mid-level” water vapor, 6.95 µm), below, also shows dry mid-level air surrounding Rafael. The eye of the Hurricane is apparent early in the animation below, but then fills.

---

Visible Imagery, below, plotted with GLM observations of Flash Extent Density (scaled from 0-16) show a compact storm with lightning occasionally occurring near the center. A distinct eye is not present. The storm will pass very near mid-Gulf Buoy 42001 during the day today.

---

For more information on Rafael, refer to the National Hurricane Center website here.

View only this post Read Less

Day Night Band imagery from NOAA-20, below, captured from the NASA Worldview site, shows a great increase in emitted light associated with the Mountain Fire on 7 November over Ventura County, CA, to the north of Los Angeles. This occurred during a time with little lunar illumination — when moonlight is available, the smoke plume of fires can be revealed.

View only this post Read Less