Day Night Band imagery from the three JPSS Satellites — NOAA-21 (1515 UTC), Suomi NPP (1537 UTC) and NOAA-20 (1602 UTC) show Tropical Storm Man-Yi as it approached the southern Marianas Islands early in the morning on 13 November 2024 (Guam Time). These images were created using CSPP Software and data downloaded at the Direct Broadcast site on Guam. The Deep Convection with the system is close to the surface center. That was not the case 12 hours earlier!

Himiwari-9 visible imagery (Band 3, 0.64 µm), below (from this site), from 0300 – 0510 UTC on 12 November show a low-level swirl of clouds to the northwest of the deepest convection.

Shortwave infrared imagery from Himawari-9 (Band 7, 3.9 µm) shows the low-level circulation separate from the convection until about 1000 UTC. Shortly before that time, convection develops into and persists within the center of the low-level swirl of clouds.

As of 0000 UTC on 13 November, the deepest convection with Man-Yi is passing south of Guam. Winds at the Guam airport are easterly, with gusts to 40 mph. The statement below was issued at 841 AM/13 November Chamorro Standard Time (2241 UTC on 12 November).

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Thanks to Douglas Schumacher, CIMSS, for the Day Night Band imagery from Guam.

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GOES-16 (GOES-East) Red Visible images and the Land Surface Temperature derived product (above) showed a large area of relatively fresh snow cover across the Plains of eastern Colorado on 11th November 2024 — this deep snow cover was the result of a closed upper-level low which moved across the area 2-3 days earlier, producing impressive accumulations. This significant snow cover was having a notable effect on surface air temperatures, keeping them anywhere from 10-20 F colder than adjacent areas of bare ground.

Over interior areas with deeper snow cover, cursor sampling of the Land Surface Temperature at Limon (above) and at La Junta (below) revealed values in the mid 30s F.

At locations along or near the edge of the snow cover, their surface air temperature was somewhat cooler if winds were blowing off the snow pack. This effect was very apparent at Burlington (KITR) along the eastern edge of the snow cover, with cool NW winds keeping their air temperature in the upper 30s F (below).

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Total Precipitable Water fields over the western Pacific on 10/11 November 2024, above, show 4 tropical cyclones at different stages of development across the West Pacific. The screenshot from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, below, shows the 4 storms: Yinxing, about to make landfall in Vietnam, Toraji pulling away from the northern Philippines, Tropical Storm 27W in between the Marianas and the Philippines, and Man-yi moving through the Marianas. This screenshot from the CIMSS Tropical Weather website similarly shows the 4 storms lined up in a row.

Himawari-9 imagery, below, shows the two easternmost tropical cyclones. Mid-level water vapor imagery shows dry(ish) mid-level air between the two systems; total precipitable water imagery from (say) 1200 UTC on 11 November also shows a filament of relatively dry air that might influence the development of Man-yi, the easternmost system, in the short term. Clean window infrared imagery shows strong convection intermittently over both systems.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggests Man-Yi will move mostly west towards Guam, affecting the Marianas between 0000 and 1200 UTC on 13 November (this is late in the day on the 13th on Guam). As noted in this Facebook Live recording (from the Science and Observation Officer on Guam), the forecast path for Man-Yi has been evolving with time. Interests throughout the Marianas and Micronesia show pay attention to advisories on this storm, both from JTWC and from the National Weather Service on Guam.

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On 10 November, GCOM-W1 overflew the developing system. Microwave information at 89 GHz is shown below with derived AMSR-2 surface wind speeds (imagery from Brandon Aydlett, SOO at NWS Guam); the imagery was produced by CSPP software operating on data downloaded at the Direct Broadcast antenna on Guam. Microwave data revealed a sheared system. A low-level swirl is centered near 16^oN Latitude, 154^oE Longitude, note the curved bands to the west and north (darker blue in the enhancement) and deep convection (yellow/red/brown in the enhancement) to the southeast of the low-level swirl. Derived wind speeds show values exceeding 40 knots underneath the strongest convection. (You can view AMSR-2 windspeed at the NASA Worldview site as well here)

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A basin-wide Shear Analysis, below, from the CIMSS Tropical Weather Site (link), shows strong shear over the system at 1500 UTC on 10 November 2024. Man-Yi’s convection was between 150^o and 160^o E Longitude, and around 13^o N Latitude, as highlighted by the dark arrow below. Strong shear that is diagnosed over the system would displace the convection to the southeast of the near-surface circulation as shown in the microwave imagery above.

By 1500 UTC on 11 November, the shear over the system has weakened as the system approached 150^o E Longitude. Slow strengthening is forecast. The northern Marianas Islands are all under a Tropical Storm Watch.

Thanks to Brandon Aydlett, WFO GUM for the alert about this storm and for the imagery. Thanks also to Douglas Schumacher for the GCOM-W1 imagery. Note that there is more Guam-centered GCOM-W1 89 GHz imagery on 11 November in this blog post.

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5-minute CONUS Sector GOES-16 (GOES-East) Nighttime Microphysics RGB + daytime True Color RGB images from the CSPP GeoSphere site (above) displayed the nocturnal thermal signatures (darker shades of violet) of a few wildfires in the vicinity or the New Jersey-New York border — particularly that associated with the larger and persistent Jennings Creek Wildfire along the border — along with the distinct Jennings Creek Wildfire smoke plume that moved southeast across the New York City area and adjacent offshore waters during the day on 9th November 2024. The fire caused some local road closures, and there was 1 firefighter fatality.

GOES-16 Visible images with an overlay of the Fire Mask derived product (a component of the FDCA) (below) also displayed the Jennings Creek Wildfire thermal signature and smoke plume — plots of Ceiling and Visibility showed that this smoke occasionally reduced the surface visibility to 4-6 miles at a few of the New York City area airports (visibility in miles is the number plotted to the bottom left of each 4-letter station identifier).

A Pilot Report over far northeast New Jersey at 1550 UTC (below) indicated the presence of heavy smoke (+FU) at an altitude of 1700 ft — which was restricting the flight-level visibility to 1-1/2 statute miles.

GOES-16 Aerosol Optical Depth values over the NYC area were occasionally at or slightly above 1.0, as depicted by darker red pixels (below).

NEW INCIDENT – WILDFIRE ALERT: Jennings Creek Wildfire – West Milford, Passaic County@NJDEPForestFire is on scene of a wildfire burning in the area of Greenwood Lake Turnpike and East Shore Rd in West Milford, Passaic County. The fire is also burning in Orange County, New York. pic.twitter.com/fBo98MFVPh

— New Jersey Forest Fire Service (@njdepforestfire) November 9, 2024

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