The ProbSevere LightningCast version 1 (v1) model uses machine learning and GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data to predict the probability of lightning in the next 60 minutes. This version will be operational at NOAA later in 2025.As research and development continues, a new version of the model (LightningCast v2) adds... Read More

GOES-19 is slated to become the next operational GOES-East in April. Despite being trained on GOES-16 data, CIMSS and NOAA scientists have been busy evaluating the AI lightning-prediction model, LightningCast, on GOES-19 output to prepare for the operational transition and see how adaptable the model is.Overall, the LightningCast output on... Read More

A positively-tilted upper-level trough generated severe thunderstorms across the eastern U.S. recently. The associated surface low-pressure system with attendant cold front spawned numerous severe storms from Mississippi to Ohio to Virigina.The LightningCast model picked up on this developing convection, providing 10-30 minutes of lead time to lightning initiation in many... Read More

Lightning dashboard for Bismarck Airport, North Dakota.