Hurricane Sally weakened to a Tropical Storm at 1800 UTC on 16 September. Sally is a prodigious rainfall producer. CMORPH (CPC Morphing Technique) Precipitation estimates (blogged about earlier) are available at this Real Earth website. Hourly estimates from 1300 through 2200 UTC are shown above.  Many locations over southern Mississippi show hourly multi-inch accumulations for much of the day.

Daily precipitation for the 24 hours ending at 00 UTC on 17 September is shown below.  A large area of Mississippi shows values between exceeding 100-150 mm.  Click here to see a 24-h precipitation total image for the period ending 1200 UTC on 17 September (from this website) A series of daily images of 24-hour precipitation (at bottom) shows the evolution of the diagnosed precipitation from 09-16 September.

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At 0500 UTC on 16 September 2020, Hurricane Sally rapidly intensified (ADT | SATCON) to a Category 2 storm, and soon thereafter made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama at 0945 UTC. During that time period, 1-minute GOES-16 Infrared imagery — with and without an overlay of GLM Flash Extent Density (above) — displayed a ragged eye structure, along with a lack of GLM-detected lightning activity in the immediate vicinity of the storm center. The eye passed just to the west of Buoy 42012, where the wind gusted to 95.2 knots or 110 mph at 0510 UTC (below).

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How did Sally change the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Northern Gulf? The toggle below of Advanced Clear Sky Processor for Ocean (ACSPO) SSTs from VIIRS, derived using CSPP (the Community Satellite Processing Package) and direct broadcast data at CIMSS, shows SSTs about 2ºF cooler (cyan in the enhancement, about 80ºF) compared to surrounding waters that are 82-83ºF..

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Hurricane Sally was moving very slowly in the north-central Gulf of Mexico at sunrise on 15 September 2020. A GOES-16 Mesoscale sector placed over the storm allowed for 1-minute imagery, and the Clean Infrared window animation, above, for the 2 hours centered on Sunrise, show a compact storm south of Mobile Bay and east of the Mississippi River delta. Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data overlain on the ABI imagery show active lightning in a feeder band to the east of the storm, but little lightning in the storm center.

Intensification of Sally has been affected by dry air near the storm (as mentioned in this discussion, for example). The toggle above of GOES-16 infrared upper-level and lower-level water vapor imagery (observed at 6.19 µm and 7.34 µm, respectively), shows warm brightness temperatures to the west of the storm.  These warm temperatures (yellow in the 7.34 µm image, blue in the 6.19 µm image) are regions of mid-level dryness:  the top of the moist layer is farther down in the atmosphere in these regions.

Morphed microwave imagery, below, (from this site), shows the effect of dry air on the storm structure.  The eyewall almost forms — but it is eroded along its southern edge by dry air.

The 1200 UTC MIMIC Total Precipitable Water (TPW) field, below (from this site) suggests that dryer Continental air might be affecting the storm.  Advected Layer Precipitation Water from 1200 UTC (here, from this site), tells a similar tale.

Visible imagery, below, at sunrise shows a thick clouds over the center of the storm.  The appearance is similar to yesterday’s. A visible animation (from 1130-1313 UTC) without the GLM overlay is available here.

===== 21 UTC Update =====

1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector GOES-16 (GOES-East) “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) and “Clean” Infrared Window (10.35 µm) images — with and without an overlay of GLM Flash Extent Density (above) showed a series of convective bursts that rotated around the center of Category 1 Hurricane Sally during the daylight hours. Minimal GLM-detected lightning activity was seen with these convective bursts.

A toggle between Suomi NPP VIIRS Visible (0.64 µm) and Infrared Window (11.45 µm) images (below) showed Sally at 1806 UTC. The coldest cloud-top infrared brightness temperature northwest of the eye was -86ºC.

For the latest information on Hurricane Sally, refer to the pages of the National Hurricane Center.  (Direct link to Sally)

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Sally was upgraded to a Hurricane at 1600 UTC on 14 September. (Link)

Hurricane warning have been issued along the central Gulf Coast on 14 September as strengthening tropical storm Sally approached.  MIMIC estimates of total precipitable water, above, for the 24 hours ending at 11 UTC on 14 September show the moist airmass in the Gulf that is helping to sustain the storm.  (Also apparent in the imagery:  Hurricane Paulette, moving over the island of Bermuda, and Pacific Tropical Storm Karina.  (For more information on these storms (and other storms during this active Atlantic Hurricane Season), and for the latest on Sally, refer to the National Hurricane Center)

Both Suomi NPP and NOAA-20 overflew Sally between 0700 and 0800 UTC on 14 September, and Day Night Band imagery for the storm (source) is shown below. The 50-minute time step between the two images show little because of a lack of lunar illumination, but westward expansion of the cloud shield near the Mississippi River delta is apparent. This suggests adequate upper-level divergence for continued storm intensification.

GOES-16 animations of infrared imagery for the 12 hours endings near 1300 UTC on 14 September, below, also show an expansion in the size of the coldest cloud tops in the storm’s center. A frontal zone is also apparent in the infrared imagery, stretching from New York/Pennsylvania southwestward to north Texas. This front will limit how far north the effects of Sally — post landfall — can move. (The forecast as of 14 September moves the post-landing remnants of Sally through Georgia).

Low-level Water vapor infrared imagery (GOES-16 Band 10, at 7.3 µm; click here for the Upper-level Water vapor infrared imagery, at 6.2 µm), below, using an enhancement courtesy William Churchill, WFO Key West (Click here for the Band 10 animation with a more familiar, perhaps, ‘dry yellow’ enhancement), also shows the expansion of the clouds in the central core of the storm. An apparent outflow channel from the storm south over Cuba also shows up in the animation.

A GOES-16 mesoscale sector is viewing the development of Sally, allowing for 1-minute imagery.  Visible imagery below, for two hours shortly after sunrise, shows active convection ongoing in the center of the storm and an obvious expansion of the central dense overcast. Both things support strengthening is the inner core structure.

===== 21 UTC Update =====

1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector GOES-16 (GOES-East) “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) and “Clean” Infrared Window (10.35 µm) images — with and without an overlay of GLM Flash Extent Density (above) showed Hurricane Sally after it was upgraded to a Category 2 storm at 21 UTC. A series of convective bursts could be seen developing near the center of Sally; as is usually the case, very little GLM-detected lightning activity was associated with these types of convective bursts located within close proximity to the eye. Winds at Viocsa Knoll — an elevated oil platform, located just northwest of the storm center — gusted to 94 knots or 108 mph at 2100 UTC (shortly after gusting to 102 knots or 117 mph at 2020 UTC).

You can find more information on Sally at the SSEC Tropical Website (Link). For official forecasts, refer to the pages of the National Hurricane Center. Interests along the central Gulf Coast should be preparing for the arrival of this storm, in addition to monitoring its progress.

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