GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

McIDAS images of GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel data on 20 June 2014 (above; click image to play animation; also available as an MP4 movie file) and on 21 June 2014 (below; click image to play animation; also available as an MP4 animation file) revealed the hazy signature of a veil of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust aloft over much of the southern and western portions of the Gulf of Mexico.

GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

The hazy dust signature also showed up well in Suomi NPP VIIRS true-color Red/Green/Blue (RGB) images, as visualized using the SSEC RealEarth web map server (below).

Suomi NPP VIIRS true-color RGB images

The SAL tracking product showed the strong pulse of SAL dust emerging from the African continent on 10 June, then moving rapidly westward across the Atlantic Ocean and over the Caribbean Sea by 17 June (below; click image to play animation).

Meteosat-10 Saharan Air Layer tracking product (click to play animation)

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Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.64 µm visible channel images, with contours of GFS90 500 hPa geopotential height

AWIPS images of Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.64 µm  visible channel data (above) showed the development of early afternoon thunderstorms over the interior of Alaska as an upper-level low moved westward over the region on 19 June 2014.

An animation of VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel images spanning the 18-19 June period (below) depicted large areas of cloudiness exhibiting cold cloud-top IR brightness temperature values in the -45 to -50º C range (darker red color enhancement). During this time some locations across the interior of Alaska received over 4 inches of rainfall, prompting the issuance of Flood Warnings for parts of the Goodpaster, Salcha, and Upper Chena Rivers.

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel images

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Blended Total Precipitable Water product (click to play animation)

The Blended Total Precipitable Water (TPW) product (above; click image to play animation) showed areas where TPW values were in the 25-30 mm or 1.0 to 1.2 inch range (darker green to yellow color enhancement). The corresponding Percent of Normal TPW product (below; click image to play animation) indicated that these TPW values were generally in the 150-200% of normal range for this region and this time of year.

Percent of Normal Blended Total Precipitable Water product (click to play animation)

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Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel and 0.7 µm Day/Night Band images, with cloud-to-ground lightning strikes

A comparison of AWIPS images of Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel and 0.7 µm Day/Night Band data (above) showed very large areas of cold cloud-top IR brightness temperatures associated with Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) over the Upper Midwest region of the US at 08:00 UTC (3:00 AM Central time) on 18 June 2014. The coldest IR brightness temperature was -88º C over far southern  Minnesota.  Numerous bright white “streaks” were seen on the Day/Night Band (DNB) image, which indicated portions of the cloud that were illuminated by intense lightning activity. Cloud-to-ground lightning strikes are also plotted on the DNB image, showing how electrically-active these storms were at the time. The western MCS initially formed over eastern South Dakota during the previous evening, producing a few tornadoes there (SPC storm reports). The eastern MCS began to form later along the Wisconsin/Illinois border region — one aircraft flying near the northern edge of a rapidly-developing thunderstorm encountered severe turbulence.

Shortly after the time of the Suomi NPP satellite overpass, a 08:21 UTC overpass of the NOAA-19 POES satellite provided AVHRR-derived CLAVR-x Cloud Top Temperature (CTT), Cloud Top Height (CTH), and Cloud Type products (below). The minimum CTT value was -84º C, and the maximum CTH value was 14 km; much of the MCS cloud shield was classified as the Overshooting Top type (magenta color).

POES AVHRR Cloud Top Temperature, Cloud Top Height, and Cloud Type products

After sunrise, McIDAS  images of GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel data (below; click image to play animation; also available as an MP4 movie file) showed that the eroding MCS cirrus shield aloft exposed a middle-tropospheric Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) which continued moving eastward across Wisconsin during the day.

GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

Consecutive overpasses of the Terra and Aqua satellites provided MODIS 0.65 µm visible channel images of the region (below). The convective outflow boundary from the earlier MCS activity had acted to push the warm frontal boundary (which had been acting as a focus for convective development) south of the Wisconsin/Illinois border, leaving a relatively stable boundary layer with a weak capping inversion aloft over Wisconsin — as a result, the MCV circulation did not play a role in initiating any new convective development.

MODIS 0.65 µm visible channel images, with surface reports and surface fronts

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Unusual twin tornadoes (click here for a summary of photos/videos from the Capitol Weather Gang) formed in northeastern Nebraska (Storm Reports from SPC) late in the afternoon of the 16th of June 2014. How did satellite data anticipate the development and progression of the severe convection? GOES-13 Sounder data painted a picture of ongoing destabilization in the area. For example, the CIMSS NearCast Product, which  arises from a two-layer Lagrangian Transport Model of Equivalent Potential Temperature, shows increasing stability in a forecast for 2100 UTC on 16 June in forecasts from 1800, 1900 and 2000 UTC, below.

CIMSS NearCast forecasts of Theta-e Differences between two layers, all at 2100 UTC, with initial times at 1800, 1900 and 2000 UTC (click to animate)

The NearCast output, derived from GOES Sounder data, can predict in advance where axes of instability (and more importantly, where gradients in instability; see also comments on NearCast here and here) will occur. GOES Sounder data can also be used to diagnose the present state of the atmosphere. On this particular day, GOES Sounder estimates of Lifted Index (1400, 2000 and 0000 UTC) and CAPE (1400, 2000 and 0000 UTC) all showed ongoing destabilization over the Plains.

GOES-13 Sounder DPI Analyses of Lifted Index and Convective Available Potential Energy at 1400 and 2000 UTC on 16 June and at 0000 UTC on 17 June

The products above outline the general area where convection might develop. Once the convection has developed, the NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere product can be used to diagnose/monitor the likelihood of severe weather (large hail, strong winds, or tornadoes) developing — specifically, the likelihood of when severe weather might first occur. The animation below shows the evolution of the tornadic cell as it moved northeastward through Nebraska. Satellite predictors (Normalized Vertical Growth Rate and Maximum Glaciation Rate) for this cell were strong; both were observed at 1925 UTC, nearly an hour before the observed severe weather. ProbSevere first exceeded 50% at 1950 UTC, 13 minutes before the warning at 2003 UTC. 1-inch diameter hail was reported at 2016 UTC. The first tornado report occurred at 2040 UTC.

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model

MUCAPE in the ProbSevere product above is around 4000-5000 J/kg. A special sounding at OAX (1900 UTC) shows similar CAPE values.

The Suomi NPP satellite had a timely overpass over the Great Plains at around 2000 UTC on 16 June 2014. NUCAPS Soundings from Suomi NPP are available, as plotted below, and can be used to estimate instability.

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm imagery with NUCAPS sounding positions (Green Dots) Superimposed (Click to enlarge)

A sounding at ~42º N, ~97.8º W, below, shows CAPE values around 1000. However, note that the boundary layer temperature and dewpoint are too cool (surface temperature = 21º C) and too dry (surface dewpoint = 12º C). A benefit of the Sounding Software in AWIPS II, however, is that soundings can be easily modified. If the boundary layer is altered such that dewpoints are closer to observed METAR values (20º C), then CAPE values increase to 3000; if the temperatures are modified to be closer to observed values, CAPE increases to more than 4800.

NUCAPS Sounding at 42.07 N, 97.78 W, ~2000 UTC on 16 June 2014 (Click to enlarge)

Suomi NPP VIIRS data at different wavelengths (0.64 µm visible, 1.61 µm near-IR and 11.45 µm longwave IR), below, give a view of the storm just before severe hail was observed. The 1.61 µm imagery suggests a fully-glaciated anvil, and the 11.45 µm imagery shows evidence of several isolated overshooting tops.

Suomi NPP VIIRS data (0.64 µm, 1.61 µm and 11.45 µm) at 2004 UTC on 16 June 2014 (Click to animate)

Click here for a visible image animation from GOES-13; here is an infrared image animation. The famous twin tornadoes in Elkhart, IN, during the Palm Sunday outbreak in 1965 can be seen here.

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