Probability of Moderate or Greater (MOG) Turbulence is a Machine-Learning product that uses satellite imagery (Band 13 — the clean window infrared channel at 10.3 µm — over the GOES-West domain; GOES-16 Probabilities use both Band 13 and the upper-level water vapor imagery — Band 8 at 6.19 µm; training on this product is available here) and GFS estimates of tropospheric stability. The animation above (from this website) shows an axis of maximum probabilities to the northeast of Hawai’i. Two pilot reports of turbulence are plotted in that axis, one near 0910 UTC, one near 1000 UTC.

The upper-level water vapor imagery associated with this feature is shown below. The GOES-17 upper-level water vapor imagery displayed below is showing the effects of the poor functionality of the Loop Heat Pipe (you can investigate more on this topic here). In this animation, that effect is manifest by flickering in the image (that is especially noteable around 11 UTC). The overnight imagery should degrade further in the next few days before recovering later in May.

GOES-17 MOG Turbulence Probability is available in AWIPS, as shown below. The product is produced from the Full Disk Imagery, that is, with a 10-minute cadence.

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The CIMSS Weighting Function website can gauge from what level the information sensed in the upper-level water imagery emerges. The image below, using 0000 UTC GFS data, suggests the information is originating around 300 mb.

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GOES-16 (GOES-East) Low-level (7.3 µm), Mid-level (6.9 µm) and Upper-level (6.2 µm) Water Vapor images (above) showed deep tropospheric waves moving over the Gulf of Mexico on 04 April 2022. Waves propagating west-southwestward were initiated by thunderstorms — but no distinct forcing mechanism was apparent for the wave that was moving northwestward.  

Also included in the animation is an overlay of the CIMSS Moderate or Greater (MOG) Turbulence Probability product — values were very low in areas where the wave features were seen, but were high in the immediate vicinity of a small cluster of thunderstorms (until those storms rapidly dissipated). In this case, there were no pilot reports of turbulence with any of the wave features or the small short-lived cluster of thunderstorms.

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MIMIC (Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS) estimates of Total Precipitable Water, above, and available in real time here, and archived here, show two cyclonic rotations on the poleward side of the deep moisture of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the western Pacific. These two circulations are areas of interest to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, as shown below. At the end of the animation, one circulation (tropical invest 94W) is about to move over the Phillippines. A second feature at the end of the animation is near 10^o N, 150^o E.

You can also view assessments of total column precipitable water (and TPW in pre-defined layers) as measured by NOAA-20 CrIS/ATMS sensors and produced by HEAP software that produces NUCAPS profiles. This SPoRT site displays gridded swaths of precipitable water, and they’re aggregated below in a loop. The latest esimates of layer Relative Humidity are shown below that. The middle-/upper-troposphere over Guam is quite dry!

What does Himawari-8 show over the region? As noted in this blog post, it’s a straightforward task to automatically acquire Himawari data via cron on any unix machine. Daily animations can then be produced, and strung together as shown below in an mp4 (Click here for the animated gif) spanning 01 through 03 April 2022. The convection associated with Invest 94W is obvious early in the animation before its convection collapses. The rotation associated with Invest 95W is apparent to the southeast of Guam at the end of the animation, but the system is poorly organized.

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Why have these systems not developed further? The toggle below shows a mapping of shear and SSTs centered on Invest 95W (click here for a basin-wide analysis of Shear, taken from the SSEC Tropical Weather Website). Given that the atmosphere has low shear, and sea-surface temperatures are warm, it’s possible that dry air to the north has helped prevent organization. The low latitude — between 5^o and 10^o N — might also be a factor.

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1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector GOES-16 (GOES-East) Shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm), Upper-level Water Vapor (6.2 µm), Split Water Vapor BTD (6.2 – 7.3 µm) and Day Convection RGB images (above) showed that the launch of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket (for the Transporter-4 Mission) on 01 April 2022 created a short-lived shock wave that propagated northward through the clouds just off the Florida coast.

A sequence of GOES-16 images from ABI Infrared spectral bands 07-16 at 16:25:55 UTC (below) displayed the Falcon 9 rocket booster’s thermal signature at that time (when the rocket was well above the clouds, at an altitude around 30 km).

A plot of rawinsonde data (source) from Cocoa Beach, Florida (below) indicated that the entire tropospheric column was nearly saturated, supporting the presence of dense layered cloudiness. There was an isothermal 600-650 hPa layer, which could have enhanced horizontal ducting of these shock waves (although it’s curious as to why the direction of wave propagation was primarily northward in the GOES-16 imagery).

Kudos to Todd Beltracchi (The Aerospace Corporation) for bringing this interesting rocket signature to our attention!

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