The 2016 Atlantic Tropical Season’s third named storm has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula; Colin became the earliest named “C” storm on record for that basin. MIMIC Total Precipitable Water values for the 72 hours ending at 2300 UTC on 5 June 2016, above, show the storm embedded within a deep band of tropical moisture that has surged northward from the Monsoon Trough / Intertropical Convergence Zone into the northwestern Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico (MIMIC TPW + surface analyses). Moisture extends northeastward along the projected path of the storm into northern Florida. Extensive rains are likely over the Southeast US as the storm moves north. Total Precipitable Water (TPW) from MIMIC is a simple band difference between two microwave channels; that difference is invalid over land where emissivity is highly variable. However, MIRS data can estimate TPW over land and water, and its distribution over the eastern United States, below, derived from a morphed animation of the observations, gives a better indication of the spread of rich moisture over the southeastern United States. In addition, the Blended TPW Product showed values in excess of 70 mm (2.76 inches) over the Gulf of Mexico, which were in excess of 170% of Normal.

Colin was poised to moved over a region of higher Ocean Heat Content that was located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which could help to fuel additional bursts of deep convection similar to that seen on POES AVHRR infrared imagery, below. For more information on Tropical Storm Colin, refer to the CIMSS Tropical Cyclones site and the National Hurricane Center.

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Tropical Depression 2 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bonnie at 2100 UTC on Saturday 28 May, the second named storm of the 2016 Atlantic Season (Hurricane Alex, which formed in January, was the first named storm). The water vapor animation above shows that Bonnie’s initial spin may be traced to a front associated with an occluded system which crawled through the eastern United States, exiting on about 23 May 2016. It’s not uncommon for vorticity associated with extratropical cyclone fronts to sow the seed of a tropical cyclone, especially early (or late) in the season. In this case, the cold front failed to pass Bermuda, and by 27 May, persistent thunderstorms about halfway between Bermuda and the Bahamas suggested tropical cyclogenesis was underway (GOES-13 visible image animations: 26 May | 27 May).

Total Precipitable Water fields from the microwave MIMIC product, above, show the system was embedded deep within tropical moisture (24-26 May animation). Tropical moisture associated with the storm moved up the east coast of the United States into the mid-Atlantic States with local flooding reported. This longer animation (from 21 through 28 May) shows that persistent westward motion of moisture occurred over the tropical Atlantic well in advance of Bonnie’s formation.

The tropical wave that produced Bonnie showed a closed circulation as early as 1012 UTC on 27 May according to Rapidscat scatterometer winds, above, and MODIS Sea Surface Temperatures, below, showed very warm water (with SST values of 80º F) over the Gulf Stream.

Suomi NPP overflew this tropical system at various times during its lifecycle. Shortly after midnight on 27 May 2016, above, strong convection was centered just north of the apparent surface circulation (as inferred by the curved bands of low-level clouds, clouds made visible by moonlight in the night-time VIIRS Day/Night Band visible imagery). Twenty-four hours later, at 0742 UTC on 28 May, below, in a more zoomed-in view, the (then) Tropical Depression Number 2 is supporting strong convection that is obscuring the low-level circulation center.

Finally, at 0723 UTC on 29 May, (above) after strong wind shear has displaced all convection well north of the center, the low-level circulation of Tropical Storm Bonnie is southeast of the South Carolina Coast. Strong convection is over North Carolina. This shear was noted in the 0300 UTC and 0900 UTC (29 May) Discussions from the National Hurricane Center. The effect of shear is apparent in the two GOES-13 Infrared Images below, from 2045 UTC on 28 May when convection was close to the center, and from 1045 UTC on 29 May, shortly before landfall, when convection was stripped from the center and displaced well to the north.

Closer views of the sheared system on 28 May can be seen on 1906 UTC VIIRS and 1937 UTC AVHRR Visible and Infrared images, as well as a GOES-13 Visible animation.

===== 01 June Update =====

The remnant circulation of Bonnie moved very slowly northeastward during the 30 May – 01 June period, as seen in GOES-13 Visible (0.63 µm) images covering each of those 3 days (above; also available as a large 95 Mbyte animated GIF). The periodic formation of deep convective clusters continued to produce heavy rainfall over parts of far eastern North and South Carolina.

On the morning of 01 June, an overpass of the Metop-B ASCAT instrument sampled the flow around the low-level circulation center (LLCC) off the coast of North Carolina; several hours later, Suomi NPP VIIRS Visible (0.64 µm) and Infrared Window (11.45 µm) images provided a high-resolution view of the system at 1755 UTC (below). Cloud-top IR brightness temperatures were as cold as -78º C within the small convective cluster located just north of the LLCC.

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GOES-3 started service on 16 June 1978 and was the operational GOES-West satellite until the late 1980s. Having lost imaging capabilities, it started a second long life as a communications satellite; GOES-3 is currently the oldest operating satellite. Decommissioning will begin on 8 June and run for 15 days. If final decommissioning happens as planned on 23 June, GOES-3’s service life will be 38 years, 7 days.

GOES-3’s arguably most famous imagery occurred during the eruption of Mount St. Helens on 18 May 1980, shown above (click here for an animation of the eruption, courtesy of Barry Roth, SSEC; Tim Schmit, NOAA/ASPB also provided longer visible animations: MP4 | animated GIF).

A comparison of GOES-3 Visible (0.65 µm) and Infrared Window (11.5 µm) images, below, showed that a large portion of the volcanic cloud exhibited IR brightness temperatures of -60º C (darker red color enhancement) or colder as the feature moved rapidly eastward during the first 10 hours following the eruption. It is interesting to note that a small “enhanced-V” or cold/warm (-65ºC/-47ºC) thermal couplet signature was evident on the initial 1545 UTC Infrared image (zoom), as the volcanic ash cloud rapidly rose to an estimated altitude of 12 to 16 miles (20 to 27 km) above sea level.

Some early examples of Full Disk GOES-3 images (on 20 November 1978) are shown below, courtesy of Tim Schmit, NOAA/ASPB.

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4-km resolution GOES-13 (GOES-East) Infrared Window (10.7 µm) images (above) showed the cold cloud tops associated with training and back-building thunderstorms that produced very heavy rainfall (along with some hail and damaging winds) in parts of Southeast Texas during the 26 May – 27 May 2016 period. The images are centered on Brenham, Texas (station identifies K11R), where over 19 inches of rainfall was reported in a 24-hour period (NWS Houston PNS). Note the presence of very cold cloud-top IR brightness temperatures of -80º C or colder (violet color enhancement).

During the overnight hours, a comparison of Suomi NPP VIIRS Day/Night Band (0.7 µm) and Infrared Window (11.45 µm) images at 0801 UTC or 3:01 am local time (below) revealed cloud-top gravity waves propagating northwestward away from the core of overshooting tops (which exhibited IR brightness temperatures as cold as -84º C) located just to the west of Brenham. Due to ample illumination from the Moon — which was in the Waning Gibbous phase, at 71% of Full — the “visible image at night” capability of the VIIRS Day/Night Band (DNB) was well-demonstrated. The bright white streaks seen on the DNB image are a signature of cloud-top illumination by intense lightning activity.

A time series plot of surface weather conditions at Brenham is shown below.

===== 28 May Update =====

A 30-meter resolution Landsat-8 false-color Red/Green/Blue (RGB) image viewed using the RealEarth web map server (above) showed widespread areas of inundation (darker shades of blue) along the Brazos River and some of its tributaries, just to the east and north of Brenham, Texas.

 

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