Severe thunderstorms developed (in a moderate risk region from the Storm Prediction Center; here are the Storm Reports) over northern Wisconsin late in the day on 28 July 2021 and moved to the southeast (here is an mp4 animation of GOES-16 imagery courtesy of Tim Schmit, NOAA). The Day Night Band imagery, above, from Suomi NPP (0740 UTC) and NOAA-20 (0831 UTC), shows snapshots of the storms as they moved southward into Illinois. The 0740 UTC image include more evidence of lightning — especially in southwestern Wisconsin (the horizontal streaks of light) and just southwest of Dubuque. At 0831 UTC, lightning is not detected in the Day Night Band image.

In addition to carrying the VIIRS (Visible-Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) instrument, Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 also carry the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), and microwave data from that instrument can be used to infer rain rates (using MIRS — Microwave Integrated Retrieval System — algorithms, that are part of Community Satellite Processing Package — CSPP — software available to use at Direct Broadcast sites). The toggles show the Day Night Band image, the ATMS-derived Rain Rate (the green region at 0742 UTC is >3″/hour!), and the base reflectivity at 0740 UTC (below) and at 0831 UTC (bottom). The MIRS Rain Rate (0742 UTC; 0833 UTC) product does outline regions where rain is likely falling, and gives credible values where the heaviest rains are falling. Note the diminishing rain rate over southwestern WI, for example, between 0740 and 0830 UTC — indicative of weaker convection — an observation echoed in the changes in lightning detection with the Day Night band. Changes in radar to reflect that difference in microwave-estimated rain rate are a little more subtle.

Because microwave estimates of rain rate are affected by background emissivity, and because water has a much lower microwave emissivity than land, you can sometimes view land/water boundaries (as in the 0742 UTC Rain Rate, below).

MIRS Rain Rate gives useful information about rains when radar observations cannot be accessed.

MIRS Rain Rate products are available via an LDM feed from CIMSS; they are produced using the Direct Broadcast antenna at CIMSS and are thus very timely.

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RADARSAT Constellation Mission One (RCM1) passed over Nepartak at 0828 UTC on 27 July 2021, and the image above shows the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) winds derived at that time. There is a widespread region of ~40-knot winds (cyan to green in the color enhancement), a bit stronger than the 30-knot winds viewed by MetopA at 1040 UTC (shown here, in this blog post). How certain can a forecaster be of the even-stronger winds that exist in an area near the coast near 37.4ºN, 141.4ºE, and in an arc from 37.5ºN, 142.5ºE to 37.2ºN, 144ºE? There are isolated SAR estimates in that band that are near 60 knots! Are there other data sources to confirm that kind of wind? (See information at the bottom for clarification!)

The image below shows Himawari-8 Clean window imagery at 0829 UTC, just after the image above. Three points with cold cloud tops, suggestive of more vigorous convection, are indicated: (37.6ºN, 141.18ºE); (37.57ºN, 143.01ºE); (37.35ºN, 144.01ºE). The structures in the infrared imagery do match the structures in the SAR winds, but offset a bit to the north in the Himawari-8 imagery, as expected because of the parallax shift: features will be displaced away from the sub-satellite point, with the displacement increasing for higher clouds, and for greater distance from the sub-satellite point (on the Equator at 140.2ºE for Himawari-8). Convective downdrafts could be responsible for the highest winds shown in the SAR analysis.

The strong winds in the image are not observations of strong winds by SAR. Rather, these are most likely the result of reflection off of ice in the atmosphere — ice that is likely to be present around convective towers that have glaciated. (Thanks to Christopher Jackson, GST/NOAA, for this information!)

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GOES-16 “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) images (top) and “Clean” Infrared Window (10.35 µm) images (bottom), with plots of SPC Storm Reports [click to play animation | MP4]

1–minute Mesoscale Domain Sector GOES-16 (GOES-East) “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) images and “Clean” Infrared Window (10.35 µm) images (above) include time-matched plots of SPC Storm Reports produced by supercell thunderstorms that moved east-southeastward across northern Minnesota during the afternoon and early evening hours on 26 July 2021. Severe reports included a tornado at 2213 UTC and hail as large as to 3.0 inches in diameter at 2334 UTC. These storms developed near and north of a warm/stationary frontal boundary (surface analyses).

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As the games of the 2021 Olympics progress, a weakening Tropical Storm Nepartak is moving over coastal waters to the east of Honshu, the main island of Japan. The Total Precipitable Water imagery, above, from MIMIC TPW, shows a plume of moisture wrapped around the circulation center. Himawari-8 Clean Window infrared (10.41 µm) imagery, below , from the Himawari-8 Target scene (courtesy of JMA; here’s a link to more JMA satellite imagery), shows the progression of the storm.

The forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) as of 1800 UTC has the weakening storm backing into northern Honshu (forecast track; it’s also available from JMA). As of 2300 UTC, the center of Nepartak had moved north to Tokyo’s latitude, and convective bands on the west side of the storm are affecting areas around Tokyo, Yokohama, Sagami Bay and Chiba prefecture. Interests in Japan should monitor closely the progress of this storm.

Visible imagery from shortly after sunrise on Tuesday 27 July in Japan shows the storm to the east of Japan; very little convection is within the storm center.

Metop-A overflew Japan at around 1040 UTC on 27 July. Scatterometry (source) showed the wind structure of the storm very nicely.

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