As part of the Hazardous Weather Testbed this year at the Storm Prediction Center, CIMSS will be demonstrating forecast model output initialized with hyperspectral data from Polar Orbiters that is fused with ABI data; this methodology takes advantage of (for example) the high spectral resolution of CrIS on NOAA-20 and the high spatial and temporal resolution of the ABI on GOES-16. (See this blog post). Preliminary storm reports for 29-30 March 2022 are shown above, scattered severe weather occurred over the southern Plains. What did the PHSnMWnABI data look like for this event, specifically for the severe weather in northwestern Arkansas reported around 0909 UTC?

The toggle above compares two estimates of instability, one using just thermodynamics (Convective Available Potential Energy — CAPE), one incorporating model wind fields as well (STP). This 11-hour forecast was a bit fast, bringing the largest tornado threat into northwestern Arkansas by 0700 UTC (in reality, per the SPC, severe weather occurred shortly after 0900 UTC). The toggle below compares 11-h forecast of CAPE to the initial field (i.e., 00-h) of CAPE at 0700 UTC and the GOES-16 Band 13 infrared (10.3 µm) satellite imagery at 0700 UTC. The initial field certainly shows enhanced instability lagging behind the coldest cloud tops!

ProbSevere (version 3), as shown at this website, will also be demonstrated at HWT this year. The readout below, from 0701 UTC, shows the strongest convection lagging the predicted region of strongest instability.

ProbSevere version 3 at 0916 UTC shows a maximum over the severe storm near Springdale, AR. The ProbSevere readout (from this website) for that radar object, shows a maximum value at 0910 UTC.

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Use the model forecast fields to better identify the regions of risk in the 3-12 hour timeframe, and then use observation-based products to hone in on exactly where the biggest threat exists.

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GOES-16 (GOES-East) Dust RGB images (above) highlighted the development of widespread blowing dust (brighter shades of pink/magenta) across northern Chihuahua, Mexico and parts of Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma on 29 March 2022. Strong winds within the corridor between a dryline and an approaching cold front were gusting as high as 65 knots — and the lofted blowing dust was reducing the surface visibility to 1.5 miles at some locations. Much of that region had been experiencing severe to exceptional drought conditions.

GOES-16 True Color RGB images created using Geo2Grid (below) provided another view of the blowing dust plumes (shades of tan to light brown), as well as a few narrow plumes of smoke (dull shades of white) from wildfires that spread quickly due to the strong winds.

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Farther to the north, severe thunderstorms developed ahead of the dryline across eastern Kansas — and overlapping 1-minute GOES-16 Mesoscale Sectors provided 30-second imagery of these storms; “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) images with plots of time-matched SPC Storm Reports are shown above, during the hours leading up to sunset.

After sunset, isolated tornadoes were reported in northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, as seen in GOES-16 “Clean” Infrared (10.35 µm) images (below).

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A 50- to 60-vehicle crash over central Schuylkill County (in Pennsylvania), with fatalities, on north-bound Interstate 81 occurred at around 11 AM EDT (TV news report; radio report), which is 1500 UTC. Day Cloud Phase Distinction, above shows the characteristic yellow/green/chartreuse shading that is associated with snow in cold air moving over I-81 in central Schuylkill County just before the reported time of the crashes. A longer animation below (with sparse surface observations — note no observations in Schuylkill County) during the day shows ongoing snow squalls during the course of the day.

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1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector GOES-16 (GOES-East) “Red” Visible (0.64 µm), Shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm), Fire Power and Fire Temperature (above) displayed the smoke plumes and thermal signature of the Crittenburg Complex of wildfires that developed south-southwest of Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas on 27 March 2022. Thermal signatures became evident around 1600 UTC or 11:00 am CDT; within 3 hours this fire was burning very hot, with 3.9 µm Shortwave Infrared brightness temperatures reaching 138.71ºC — the saturation temperature of ABI Band 7 detectors — as early as 1900 UTC. The Fire Temperature and Fire Power derived products are components of the GOES Fire Detection and Characterization Algorithm FDCA.

GOES-16 True Color RGB images created using Geo2Grid (below) showed that the smoke plume eventually drifted north-northeastward over parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area.

A toggle between Suomi-NPP VIIRS True Color RGB and False Color RGB images at 2032 UTC is shown below. The images were downloaded and processed via the Direct Broadcast ground station at SSEC/CIMSS, and are available for AWIPS via LDM subscription.

About 12 hours later, nighttime signatures of the Crittenburg Complex were still apparent in Suomi-NPP VIIRS Day/Night Band (0.7 µm) and Shortwave Infrared (3.74 µm) images (below). The lights just north of the fire (seen in Day/Night Band imagery) were likely due to firefighting assets in that area, working to slow the northward spread of the fire.

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