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Polar Hyperspectral Modeling at the Hazardous Weather Testbed (Week 2)

The second week of the Hazardous Weather Testbed (here is the blog site) ran 6-10 June 2022, and this blog post will discuss one or two of the events that happened this week. I was away from the Testbed on the first two days, and day #4 was not an active day for severe... Read More

The second week of the Hazardous Weather Testbed (here is the blog site) ran 6-10 June 2022, and this blog post will discuss one or two of the events that happened this week. I was away from the Testbed on the first two days, and day #4 was not an active day for severe weather during the Testbed hours. The daily maps that summarize the short-term forecasts and the observed severe weather (courtesy Bill Smith, Sr) are shown below. On all days, the STP forecasts and analyses overlapped the region of severe weather.

Forecasts of Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) from different forecast runs (1400, 1800, 2000, 0000) and observed severe weather associated with STP forecasts, Monday 6 June 2022 (Click to enlarge)
Forecasts of Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) from different forecast runs (1400, 1800, 1800, 2200) and observed severe weather associated with STP forecasts, Tuesday 7 June 2022 (Click to enlarge)
Forecasts of Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) from different forecast runs (1800, 2000) and observed severe weather associated with STP forecasts, Wednesday 8 June 2022 (Click to enlarge)

Wednesday’s STP example over southeast Indiana was one of the better predictions of the week (and it’s also discussed in this HWT blog post). The ProbSevere objects contours are surrounding maxima in the STP field. As during week 1, there were many examples that showed ProbSevere signals along the perimeter of large MUCAPE values (Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy; that is — in the MUCAPE gradient). Here’s an example from 2000 UTC on 8 June 2022 (the same time as the image below).

2-h forecast of STP valid at 2000 UTC on 8 June 2022, along with ProbSevere contours valid at 2000 UTC (Click to enlarge)
Forecasts of Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) from different forecast runs (2200 UTC and later) and observed severe weather associated with STP forecasts, Thursday 9 June 2022 (Click to enlarge); severe weather on this day mostly occurred after HWT activities ended.

As with Week 1, forecasters found great utility in using PHSnABI model output in anticipating where convection might form; that is, it was most useful in the pre-convective environment, and forecasters found 0-4h forecasts most useful.

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GOES-18 (Prelim/Non-Op) ABI 16-panels

Even though GOES-18 is currently preliminary, non-operational, ABI 16-panels are being generated for both the Full Disk and “PACUS” (Pacific US) sectors. GOES-18 arrived near the GOES-West position to continue post-launch checkout on June 6, 2022 and the ABI was started scanning early (UTC time) on June 7. To access the images, select “GOES-18”, choose a... Read More

Even though GOES-18 is currently preliminary, non-operational, ABI 16-panels are being generated for both the Full Disk and “PACUS” (Pacific US) sectors. GOES-18 arrived near the GOES-West position to continue post-launch checkout on June 6, 2022 and the ABI was started scanning early (UTC time) on June 7. To access the images, select “GOES-18”, choose a Region (sector), and “16Panel” for the parameter. (GOES-16 and GOES-17 are available as well). The sector choices are called “CONUS” and “Full Disk” but for GOES in the West location the CONUS sector is often referred to as “PACUS” since it includes the NE Pacific Ocean and western part of the contiguous United States (plus Hawaii).

NOAA and NASA recently released the first ABI (Advanced Baseline Imager) imagery from GOES-18 (including this 2-min video). GOES-T was launched on March 1st and both GOES-16 and GOES-17 monitored the rocket signature. GOES-18 is the third in the GOES-R series and is currently located at approximately 136.8W, having been relocated from its initial geostationary checkout position at 89.5W. GOES-18 is slated to become NOAA’s operational GOES-West in early 2023 after going through many tests. Before that, the ABI on GOES-18 will become the operational imager during two GOES-17 Loop Heat Pipe times. Also see this satellite liaison post. Also see these other GOES-18 related blog posts.

GOES-18 (preliminary, non-operational) “CONUS” sector 16 panel.

There are 2 visible, 4 near-infrared and 10 infrared bands. A still image of all 16 bands for the “PACUS.”

GOES-18 (preliminary, non-operational) “Full Disk” sector 16 panel.

A still image of all 16 bands for the Full Disk.

H/T

Thanks to the many (thousands) who made the GOES-18 ABI possible. These GOES-18 ABI are early images (preliminary and non-operational, calibration improvements are possible. McIDAS-X software was used in generating these images. More about GOES-16 and GOES-17.

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GOES-18 imagery resumes, from its position over the Pacific Ocean

* GOES-18 images shown in this blog post are preliminary and non-operational *Following its initial Post-Launch Test (PLT) period at 89.5°W longitude, GOES-18 reached a near-operational PLT position over the Pacific Ocean at 136.8°W longitude — and began transmitting images again at 0120 UTC on 07 June 2022. Although the first... Read More

GOES-18 Mid-level Water Vapor (6.9 µm) images [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

* GOES-18 images shown in this blog post are preliminary and non-operational *

Following its initial Post-Launch Test (PLT) period at 89.5°W longitude, GOES-18 reached a near-operational PLT position over the Pacific Ocean at 136.8°W longitude — and began transmitting images again at 0120 UTC on 07 June 2022. Although the first few images were contaminated with striping, a 24-hour period of Full Disk GOES-18 Mid-level Water Vapor (6.9 µm) images is shown above. A “Earth from Orbit” video (GOES-18 Goes West) was produced (with image contributions from CIRA and CIMSS), as well as this Satellite Liaison Blog post. Two sources of near-realtime GOES-18 imagery include Geostationary Satellite Images and 16-panel displays.

A sequence of GOES-18 daytime CIMSS True Color RGB and nighttime Infrared Window images — created using Geo2Grid — is shown below. A similar animation using daytime Rayleigh-corrected True Color RGB images is available here.

GOES-18 daytime CIMSS True Color RGB and nighttime Infrared Window images (credit: Tm Schmit, NOAA/NESDIS/ASPB) [click to play MP4 animation]

Taking a closer look at the northern Bering Sea region, GOES-18 “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) images (below) revealed a strong southerly surge of thin stratus clouds flowing through the Bering Strait — which impinged upon Saint Lawrence Island, Alaska. Note that numerous ice floes could be seen through the semi-transparent stratus layer. Other patches of drift ice were apparent to the southwest of Saint Lawrence Island, and also near the coastlines of Russia and Alaska. In addition, a hazy plume of wildfire smoke could be seen swirling clockwise off the southwest coast of Alaska.

GOES-18 “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) images [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

In the southwestern portion of Interior Alaska, 1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector GOES-18 Visible and Shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm) images (below) depicted the smoke plume and thermal signature associated with the ongoing Hog Butte Fire (which was started by lightning on 05 June). Over the fire point source, intermittent pyrocumulus jumps could be seen penetrating the top of the expanding smoke plume.

GOES-18 “Red” Visible (0.64 µm, top) and Shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm, bottom) images [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

Farther to the south, in a comparison of Visible images from GOES-17 (GOES-West), GOES-18 and GOES-16 (GOES-East) (below) a well-defined eddy circulation was evident off the coast of southern California. The images are displayed in the native projection of each satellite.

“Red” Visible (0.64 µm) from GOES-17 (left), GOES-18 (center) and GOES-16 (right) [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

GOES-18 Visible images (below) showed widespread thunderstorms that developed over the High Plains, which then moved eastward.

GOES-18 “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) images (credit: Tim Schmit, NOAA/NESDIS/ASPB) [click to play MP4 animation]

===== 08 June Update =====

GOES-18 Water Vapor images (below) included plots of hourly surface wind barbs and gusts — and displayed a well-defined undular bore associated with a lee-side cold frontal gravity wave that was propagating southward through westward across Texas  and New Mexico on 08 June.

GOES-18 Mid-level Water Vapor (6.9 µm) images, with plots of hourly surface wind barbs and gusts (knots) [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

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GOES-17 IFR, Low IFR, and MVFR Probability fields over South Alaska

IFR (Instrument Flight Rules) Probability estimates the likelihood that IFR conditions are occurring by fusing GOES-17 satellite data with model output. The satellite-derived products give output of low IFR, (LIFR), IFR, and Marginal Visual Flight Rules (MVFR). In aviation, the difference between these classifications is generally:Low Instrument Flight Rules (LIFR): Ceilings are less than 500 feet above ground... Read More

IFR (Instrument Flight Rules) Probability estimates the likelihood that IFR conditions are occurring by fusing GOES-17 satellite data with model output. The satellite-derived products give output of low IFR, (LIFR), IFR, and Marginal Visual Flight Rules (MVFR). In aviation, the difference between these classifications is generally:


Low Instrument Flight Rules (LIFR): Ceilings are less than 500 feet above ground level and/or visibility is less than 1 mile.


Instrument Flight Rules (IFR): Ceilings are 500 to 1,000 feet and/or visibility 1 to 3 miles.


Marginal VFR (MVFR): Ceilings are 1,000 to 3,000 feet and/or visibility is 3 to 5 miles.

An example of GOES-17 IFR, Low IFR, and MVFR Probability fields along with the red visible channel (0.64 microns) over South Alaska on 07-June-2022 from 16:00 to 17:50UTC. Note how flight rules probability changes as cloud cover (seen from the visible imagery in the bottom right panel) changes [click to enlarge].

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