Seasonably cool Fall-like temperatures overspread the western Great Lakes and northern Plains on 5 October. The animation above shows the Day Cloud Phase Distinction overlain with LightningCast probability from 1321-1721 UTC on 5 October (that is, 8:21-12:21 CDT). SPC on this day was anticipating general thunder over northern Minnesota. Given that, and the autumnal temperatures, as shown below (dewpoints in the 40s, temperature in the 50s) — do you think lightning occurred?

Of course, you should expect lightning to occur. The training data set that was used to create the LightningCast probabilities via Machine Learning includes data from all months. Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB is showing glaciation, and LightningCast is highlighting regions where lightning subsequently occurs. Recall that the probabilities are for lightning (in the form of a GLM observation) to occur in the next 60 minutes.

LightningCast probabilities are available online here.

GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB images with overlays of GLM Flash Extent Density, LightningCast Probability and Local Storm Reports, from 1701 UTC to 1946 UTC (courtesy Scott Bachmeier, CIMSS) [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

Looking ahead for the next 2 hours, GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB images with overlays of GLM Flash Extent Density, LightningCast Probability and Local Storm Reports (above) revealed that some of the convection reached severe levels, producing wind gusts as high as 78 mph at Stannard Rock Lighthouse (identifier STDM4) in western Lake Superior at 1943 UTC (SPC Storm Reports) along with several reports of small (sub-severe) hail.

Given the relatively low GLM Flash Extent Density values associated with this cool-season convection, the default Color Table Min/Max values were changed to 0.5/5.0 (to help identify subtle lightning jumps that preceded some of the high wind reports).

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JMA Himawari-9 Clean Infrared Window (10.4 µm) images, from 0602 UTC to 2347 UTC [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

Target Sector (2.5-minute interval) JMA Himawari-9 AHI Clean Infrared Window (10.4 µm) images (above) showed Typhoon Koinu after it reached Category 4 intensity at 0600 UTC (SATCON) on 04 October 2023. The coldest cloud-top infrared brightness temperatures (-80 to -89C, shades of violet to purple) were generally confined to the southern semicircle of the storm. A faster animation (GIF | MP4) revealed a bit of trochoidal motion (wobble) to Koinu’s eye.

Even though Koinu was traversing an area of warmer water (Sea Surface Temperature | Ocean Heat Content), it was moving through an environment of increasing deep-layer wind shear (source). The general satellite presentation began to deteriorate — with the eye becoming more cloud-filled — as it approached the far southern tip of Taiwan, making landfall around 2332 UTC.

Microwave (85 GHz) images from DMSP and GMI satellites (below) provided 3 views of the evolving eyewall structure at 0934 UTC, 1651 UTC and 2032 UTC.

DMSP-17 SSMIS Microwave (85 GHz) image at 0934 UTC [click to enlarge]

GMI Microwave (85 GHz) image at 1651 UTC [click to enlarge]

DMSP-18 SSMIS Microwave (85 GHz) image at 2032 UTC [click to enlarge]

A toggle between daytime (0450 UTC) and nighttime (1719 UTC) Suomi-NPP VIIRS Day/Night Band (0.7 µm) images (below) also showed that Koinu’s eye became more cloud-filled during that 12-hour period.

Suomi-NPP VIIRS Day/Night Band (0.7 µm) images valid at 0450 UTC and 1719 UTC [click to enlarge]

It is worth noting that the eye of Koinu passed directly over Orchid Island around 1334 UTC — where an unconfirmed wind gust of 213 mph (95.2 m/s) was measured at the Lanyu Weather Station within the rear eyewall at 1351 UTC.

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The North Texas panhandle is experiencing severe weather on October 4, 2023. Animation 1 shows Radar reflectivity in tight areas of convection across the panhandle. The GOES Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB shown in Animation 2 confirms convection, showing overshooting tops becoming wispy ice clouds (appearing orange in the RGB).

An enhanced risk of convection was predicted by the Storm Prediction Center for this exact area. More precise forecasts of weather severity can be assessed using the ProbSevere product. ProbSevere uses a combination of satellite data, ground-based data, and numerical weather models. It can be thought of as a probability of severe weather. Note how ProbSevere follows areas of high reflectivity.

Part of ProbSevere includes ProbHail, which signifies the probability of hail. The figure above overlays ProbHail with Radar Reflectivity. Focus on the bright region to the far right, near the border of Hardeman and Jackson counties. This area has a hail probability equal to 77% and corresponds with reflectivity values near 64 dBZ. With reflectivity values that high, hail is a definite likelihood.

GOES-16 “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) images, with time-matched SPC Storm Reports plotted in red (courtesy Scott Bachmeier, CIMSS) [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector GOES-16 (GOES-East) “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) images (above) included time-matched (+/- 3 minutes) plots of SPC Storm Reports associated with the severe thunderstorms that moved eastward across parts of Oklahoma and Texas on 04 October 2023.

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Mostly clear skies over the western Atlantic on 4 October 2023 meant that the Advanced Clear Sky Processor for Oceans (ACSPO) algorithm could produce a near-complete picture of sea-surface temperatures using data from NOAA-20’s VIIRS instrument. The sinuous Gulf Stream is marked as a region of warmest waters, around 85^oF off the coast of South Carolina (pink in the enhancement used); once past 70^oW Longitude, warmest surface waters in the Gulf Stream are closer to 80^oF (orange in the enhancement).

There is a GOES-16 Level 2 Sea Surface Temperature product as well, computed hourly; it is shown in the animation below that brackets the VIIRS SSTs shown above (and here).

The toggle below compares the higher-spatial-resolution VIIRS SST field with the GOES Level 2 Product.

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