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Tag: ProbSevere

Morning storms in central Texas

A mid-level atmospheric wave with subtle warm-air advection forced some strong thunderstorms in central Texas this morning. The operational high-resolution convection-allowing NWP models did not handle these storms well at all. ProbSevere LightningCast, an image-based AI model, picked up on the rapidly growing convection about 15-20 minutes before lightning initiation. LightningCast... Read More

ProbSevere (and NUCAPS) with the Gaylord Tornado

ProbSevere (version 3) is an online tool that is available at this link. It gives the probability that the designated radar object will product severe weather in the next 60 minutes, and it was designed to be used in conjunction with other radar, satellite and model data to increase confidence... Read More