Version 1 of the NOAA/CIMSS LightningCast model uses GOES-R ABI images to predict the probability of lightning in the next 60 minutes at any given location. It is being transitioned to NOAA/NESDIS operations. LightningCast v2 has been developed and is being evaluated at NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed. Version 2 incorporates MRMS Reflectivity at -10oC, which is... Read More
A shortwave impulse spawned numerous supercell thunderstorms in a highly unstable and well-sheared environment in the Southeast U.S. ProbSevere v3 readily tracked numerous severe and tornadic storms across the region.One storm in particular produced tornadoes in Madison, Alabama, and prompted a tornado emergency warning. In this example, the ProbTor v3 was much higher... Read More
A negatively tilted shortwave trough and associated dynamical response created a rapidly deepening surface low in the Dakotas on May 15. These features worked together to bring high theta-E air from the southern U.S. up into Minnesota and Wisconsin, creating ample instability in the region. A strong mid-level jet streak... Read More
Blizzards, dust storms, fires, floods, thunderstorms and tornadoes were the result of very strong back-to-back negatively tilted shortwave troughs through the eastern half of the U.S. From Texas to Wisconsin, New York to Florida, severe wind gusts, large hail, and deadly tornadoes were recorded. The hardest hit states during the... Read More
