A shortwave impulse spawned numerous supercell thunderstorms in a highly unstable and well-sheared environment in the Southeast U.S. ProbSevere v3 readily tracked numerous severe and tornadic storms across the region.One storm in particular produced tornadoes in Madison, Alabama, and prompted a tornado emergency warning. In this example, the ProbTor v3 was much higher... Read More

A negatively tilted shortwave trough and associated dynamical response created a rapidly deepening surface low in the Dakotas on May 15. These features worked together to bring high theta-E air from the southern U.S. up into Minnesota and Wisconsin, creating ample instability in the region. A strong mid-level jet streak... Read More

Blizzards, dust storms, fires, floods, thunderstorms and tornadoes were the result of very strong back-to-back negatively tilted shortwave troughs through the eastern half of the U.S. From Texas to Wisconsin, New York to Florida, severe wind gusts, large hail, and deadly tornadoes were recorded. The hardest hit states during the... Read More

The ProbSevere LightningCast version 1 (v1) model uses machine learning and GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data to predict the probability of lightning in the next 60 minutes. This version will be operational at NOAA later in 2025.As research and development continues, a new version of the model (LightningCast v2) adds... Read More