A prescribed burn in far western Arizona’s Havasu National Wildlife Refuge became uncontrolled as northerly winds unexpectedly increased (gusting to 36 mph at RAWS site QHAA3 just north of the fire, and gusting to 28 mph at Needles Airport just west of the fire around 2300 UTC) — and became the Havasu Fire on 19 January 2026. The fire’s thermal signature was evident in a 2-day animation of 5-minute PACUS Sector GOES-18 (GOES-West) Microphysics RGB images and Next Generation Fire System (NGFS) Fire Detection polygons from 19-21 January (above).

Although the initial fire detection signal was seen in the GOES-18 Microphysics RGB image at 1521 UTC, the initial NGFS Fire Detection polygons appeared at 1606 UTC (below).

A probe of the NGFS Fire Detection polygons at 0451 UTC on 20 January (below) revealed a 3.9 µm infrared brightness temperature of 137ºC — which is the saturation temperature of GOES-18 ABI Band 7 detectors.

On 20 January, GOES-18 GeoColor RGB images (below) showed the south-southeast transport of smoke from the Havasu Fire — hazy conditions were reported in Lake Havasu City during the day. The smoke affected school activities: students at LHUSD schools were kept inside for recess that day, and the evening Lake Havasu High School Boys Soccer game was postponed for another date.

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1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector GOES-19 (GOES-East) True Color RGB images from the CSPP GeoSphere site (below) showed ice that had formed in far southern Lake Michigan (within the nearshore waters of Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana) on 20 January 2026.

1-minute GOES-19 Visible images with plots of surface winds and surface air temperatures (below) depicted the cold air temperatures — from single digits below 0ºF to single digits above 0ºF — that were present near the Lake Michigan coast shortly after sunrise. Along the eastern coast of the lake, surface air temperatures were in the 10-16ºF range, and lake effect cloud bands were producing snowfall in far southwestern Lower Michigan.

The GOES-19 Visible image at 1510 UTC (below) included an overlay of Metop-C ASCAT wind barbs — which showed westerly winds of 20-25 kts that were causing the ice to slowly drift away from the coast.

A toggle between the 1500 UTC GOES-19 Visible image with and without an overlay of the 1500 UTC GOES-19 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) derived product (below) indicated that SST values were as warm as 3.54ºC in the open waters just east of the sea ice.

A 30-meter resolution Landsat-8 Natural Color RGB image visualized using RealEarth (below) provided a more detailed view of the lake ice in the vicinity of Chicago.

On the following day, ice analyses from the Canadian Ice Service (below) showed that the Ice Concentration along the southern shoreline of Lake Michigan was 9/10 to 10/10 (red) and the Ice Stage was “New Lake Ice” (pink).

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Unseasonably cold temperatures were found in the early morning hours of 20 January 2026. This map of observed temperatures from 0800 UTC (2:00 AM CST) shows that a tongue of cold air has plunged southward with subzero temperatures found even in the southern portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin while single-digit temperatures were common throughout the Midwest.

Of particular interest, however, are the isolated temperatures between -11 and -18 in southwestern Wisconsin. Are these temperatures observational outliers with no physical basis, or are they really representative of the conditions on the ground? Let’s use satellites to see if we can learn more about what’s going on.

We’ll start with a regional view of Band 13 from GOES-19. This is the standard 10.3 micron infrared band used to identify the positions of clouds at all hours of the day. However, interpreting this band during abnormally cold conditions can be a challenge, because the color scale used to identify higher-altitude clouds paints the cloud-free surface in the same colors because the temperatures are so low. This animation shows this quite well: there is clearly a lake effect band on the western shore of Michigan’s lower peninsula, and yet it has the same cyan and blue colorization as the immobile parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

The infrared-observed surface temperatures of the upper midwest are clearly heterogeneous. But what is contributing to all of that variability? To analyze this, let’s adjust the color scale of the infrared image. This is a still frame from the 0800 UTC image above, merely adjusted to cnhance the dynamic range over the observed surface temperatures. Light is warmer than dark.

Compare the patterns in the infrared image above to this terrain map from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Note how the colder (darker) regions on the infrared map in southwestern Wisconsin correspond to the valleys in the terrain map, with that pair of -11 F temperatures confined to the Wisconsin River valley. The -18 F temperature is found in the valley of the La Crosse River. Both of these rivers flow through the Driftless Area, the rugged heart of the upper midwest that avoided being flattened by glaciers in the most recent ice age.

We commonly associate increasing altitude with decreasing temperatures. So why are the valleys colder than the tops of the ridges? This is a result of cold air pooling and katabatic flow. The night was clear and calm; see how the surface winds in the earlier figure were between 0 and 5 knots everywhere. In the absence of synoptic scale forcing, smaller scale forcing can take effect. In this case, the air at the top of the terrain experiences strong radiative cooling. After all, there were no clouds above to absorb and emit outgoing infrared radiation. Cold air is also dense air, and so these radiative-cooled air masses flowed downhill into the valleys, where they pooled. This downward flow of radiatively-cooled air is known as a katabatic wind. On the scale of the relatively shallow terrain of the Driftless the flow would be difficult to measure directly, but in mountainous regions they can be quite significant.

Based on all of this, it is likely that the anomalously low temperatures in southwest Wisconsin aren’t false readings, but actually representative of their local microclimate.

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5-minute CONUS Sector GOES-19 (GOES-East) Water Vapor and Infrared images (above) showed the development of a standing wave cloud over northeast Minnesota and Lake Superior on 19 January 2026. This cloud feature was formed by a vertically-propagating internal gravity wave that resulted from the interaction of post-frontal northwesterly surface winds with the topography of the shoreline — the terrain quickly drops from an elevation of about 2000 feet above sea level (over northeastern Minnesota) to about 600 feet above sea level (over Lake Superior) in a very short distance.

The coldest cloud-top infrared brightness temperature associated with this standing wave cloud was -53ºC — which roughly corresponded to the tropopause (at an elevation of 6.9 km), as depicted in 1200 UTC rawinsonde data at International Falls (below).

Similar standing wave clouds have been documented here on the blog, on 19 January 2022 and 08 January 2019.

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