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Episode 40 of the ongoing eruption of Kilauea

By Scott Bachmeier •

A combination of 10-minute Full Disk scan and 5-minute PACUS Sector GOES-18 (GOES-West) False Color RGB images from the NOAA/CIMSS Volcanic Cloud Monitoring site (above) showed the signature of a volcanic cloud following the eruption of Kilauea on the Big Island of Hawai`i — which became apparent after 1831 UTC on 12 January... Read More

GOES-18 False Color RGB images, from 1631-2316 UTC on 12 January [click to play MP4 animation]

A combination of 10-minute Full Disk scan and 5-minute PACUS Sector GOES-18 (GOES-West) False Color RGB images from the NOAA/CIMSS Volcanic Cloud Monitoring site (above) showed the signature of a volcanic cloud following the eruption of Kilauea on the Big Island of Hawai`i — which became apparent after 1831 UTC on 12 January 2026, and soon thereafter began moving south-southeast. (This was Episode 40 of the ongoing Kilauea eruption; Episode 1 began on 23 December 2024.) Since this False Color RGB product uses the ABI 8.5 µm spectral band (which is sensitive to SO2 absorption) in its green component, shades of cyan were indicative of a high concentration of SO2 within the volcanic cloud.

A plot of rawinsonde data from Hilo (below) indicated that NW winds were present between the altitudes of 2.2-4.4 km (the summit of Kilauea is at an elevation of 1.25 km), which were responsible for the south-southeast transport the volcanic cloud. According to the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, the volcanic plume rose to altitudes of 4 km over the eruption site, before moving southeast at higher altitudes.

Plot of rawinsonde data from Hilo, Hawaii at 0000 UTC on 13 January [click to enlarge]

GOES-18 True Color RGB images from the CSPP GeoSphere site (below) provided a view of the volcanic cloud that initially developed at 1816 UTC and later moved south-southeast of the Big Island. In addition, an overshooting top was frequently seen directly over the eruption site. A larger-scale animation that extends to sunset is available here.

5-minute GOES-18 True Color RGB images, from 1726-2351 UTC on 12 January [click to play MP4 animation]

GOES-18 Shortwave Infrared images (below) displayed the thermal signature of lava fountaining and lava flows during Kilauea’s eruption (which was briefly masked by clouds at times).

5-minute GOES-18 Shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm) images, from 1721 UTC on 12 January to 0416 UTC on 13 January [click to play MP4 animation]

As early as 1836 UTC on 12 January (14 minutes after eruption onset), the thermal signature exhibited a 3.9 µm brightness temperature of 137.88ºC (below) — which is the saturation temperature of GOES-18 ABI Band 7 detectors. This saturation temperature was intermittently seen until the eruption episode ended at 0404 UTC on 13 January.

Cursor sample of the maximum GOES-18 Shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm) brightness temperature over the Kilauea eruption site at 1836 UTC on 12 January [click to enlarge]

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Thundersnow in New Mexico

By Scott Bachmeier •

1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector GOES-18 (GOES-West) Infrared and Visible images (above) included plots of GLM Flash Points — which showed an area of convection that produced thundersnow and 1/4 mile visibility at Grant, New Mexico (KGNT) and prompted the issuance of a Special Weather Statement which mention of a snow squall affecting areas that... Read More

1-minute GOES-18 Infrared images (left) and Visible images (right) with plots of GLM Flash Points (white dots), a Special Weather Statement issued at 2311 UTC (white polygon) and METAR surface reports (cyan), from 2132 UTC on 08 January to 0001 UTC on 09 January; Interstate highways are plotted in red [click to play MP4 animation]

1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector GOES-18 (GOES-West) Infrared and Visible images (above) included plots of GLM Flash Points — which showed an area of convection that produced thundersnow and 1/4 mile visibility at Grant, New Mexico (KGNT) and prompted the issuance of a Special Weather Statement which mention of a snow squall affecting areas that included a portion of I-40 east of Grant late in the day on 08 January 2026.

A larger-scale view of 1-minute GOES-18 Infrared images (below) extended past sunset — when convection with lightning produced more thundersnow at Double Eagle II (KAEG) just NW of Albuquerque International Airport (KABQ). A Special Weather Statement was issued at 0035 UTC (image | text) as this thunderstorm began to produce accumulating graupel — graupel (GR) was later reported at KABQ, beginning at 0104 UTC (METARs). A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was then issued for that storm as it produced 1.00-inch diameter hail at 0100 UTC.

1-minute GOES-18 Infrared images with an overlay of GLM Flash Extent Density, plots of GLM Flash Points (white dots), Special Weather Statements (white polygons) and METAR surface reports (cyan), from 2142 UTC on 08 January to 0101 UTC on 09 January [click to play MP4 animation]

In a toggle between the GOES-18 Infrared image at 0050 UTC that included GLM Flash Points with/without an overlay of GLM Flash Extent Density (below), note that the 2 GLM Flash Points are parallax-corrected (to match their location at the surface), while the GLM Flash Extent Density gridded product is *not* parallax-corrected (and therefore exhibited a slight NNE displacement in GOES-18 imagery).

GOES-18 Infrared image at 0050 UTC on 09 January with plots of GLM Flash Points (white dots) — with/without an overlay of GLM Flash Extent Density [click to enlarge]

The coldest cloud-top infrared brightness temperatures of the thunderstorm in the vicinity of Albuquerque — around -50ºC — were just below the Most Unstable (MU) air parcel’s Equilibrium Level (EL), according to a plot of rawinsonde data from KABQ (below).

Plot of rawinsonde data from Albuquerque, New Mexico at 0000 UTC on 09 January [click to enlarge]

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Ice leads in the Chukchi Sea

By Scott Bachmeier •

VIIRS Infrared images from Suomi-NPP and NOAA-21 (above) showed widespread ice leads in the Chukchi Sea during the 3-day period from 06-08 January 2026. A combination of surface wind stress and ocean currents influenced the motion and evolution of these ice leads.Surface analyses (below) showed a tighter pressure gradient across the... Read More

Suomi-NPP and NOAA-21 VIIRS Infrared images, from 0028 UTC on 06 January to 2332 UTC on 08 January [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

VIIRS Infrared images from Suomi-NPP and NOAA-21 (above) showed widespread ice leads in the Chukchi Sea during the 3-day period from 06-08 January 2026. A combination of surface wind stress and ocean currents influenced the motion and evolution of these ice leads.

Surface analyses (below) showed a tighter pressure gradient across the Chukchi Sea early in the 3-day period, as high pressure was approaching from the Siberian Sea — which would have induced a stronger northerly flow across the VIIRS image domain displayed above. As the core of this high pressure settled over eastern Siberia on 08 January, the pressure gradient relaxed across much of the Chukchi Sea, with a lighter westerly flow likely becoming more prominent toward the end of the 3-day period.

6-hourlty surface analyses, from 0000 UTC on 06 January to 0000 UTC on 09 January [click to play animated GIF]

Daily results using an AI-based sea ice lead detection method covering the entire Arctic Ocean are shown below; the Chukchi Sea is located near the bottom center of the images.

AI-based VIIRS sea ice lead detection from 06-08 January [click to enlarge]

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Mountain wave turbulence across eastern Colorado

By Scott Bachmeier •

1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector GOES-19 (GOES-East) Water Vapor and Visible images (above) included plots of Pilot Reports (PIREPs) of Moderate to occasionally Severe turbulence — several of which were in the vicinity of mountain waves over parts of eastern Colorado on 05 January 2026. It was notable that in the area where mountain... Read More

1-minute GOES-19 Water Vapor images (6.9 µm, left) and Visible images (0.64 µm, right) with plots of Pilot Reports of turbulence, from 1811-2310 UTC on 05 January [click to play MP4 animation]

1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector GOES-19 (GOES-East) Water Vapor and Visible images (above) included plots of Pilot Reports (PIREPs) of Moderate to occasionally Severe turbulence — several of which were in the vicinity of mountain waves over parts of eastern Colorado on 05 January 2026. It was notable that in the area where mountain waves were very apparent in Water Vapor images (immediately downwind of the high terrain of the Rocky Mountains), there were no clouds seen in the corresponding Visible images.

Cursor samples of 2 PIREPs of Moderate to Severe turbulence are shown below. In the immediate vicinity of the earlier 1939 UTC PIREP, the distinct signature of mountain waves — adjacent bands of warm/dry subsiding air (shades of yellow) and cool/moist rising air (shades of blue) — was evident in the Water Vapor image.

GOES-19 Water Vapor image (6.9 µm, left) and Visible image (0.64 µm, right) at 1939 UTC on 05 January, with a cursor sample of a PIREP of Moderate to Severe turbulence between the altitudes of 12500-13500 ft [click to enlarge]

GOES-19 Water Vapor image (6.9 µm, left) and Visible image (0.64 µm, right) at 2310 UTC on 05 January, with a cursor sample of a PIREP of Moderate to Severe turbulence at an altitude of 11000 ft [click to enlarge]

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