Tropical Storm Arthur forms east of Florida

July 1st, 2014
GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

The first tropical depression (update: Arthur was named as a tropical storm at 1500 UTC 1 July) of the season in the tropical Atlantic has formed just to the east of Florida. The visible imagery animation, above, shows persistent strong thunderstorms with overshooting tops in the area of disturbed weather over the Gulf Stream and the Bahamas. Refer to the National Hurricane Center and the CIMSS Tropical Cyclones sites for particulars on the future track of this system. Note that current forecasts have the system strengthening to a hurricane in the next few days, and close to the North Carolina coast on July 4th.

Metop ASCAT surface scatterometer winds at 1541 UTC, below, indicated that the strongest winds (green barbs, 30-39 knots) were found within the northeastern quadrant of the tropical storm.

GOES-13 visible images with Metop ASCAT surface scatterometer winds (click to play animation)

GOES-13 visible images with Metop ASCAT surface scatterometer winds (click to play animation)

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GOES-13 10.7 µm infrared channel images (click to play animation)

GOES-13 10.7 µm infrared channel images (click to play animation)

The tropical Atlantic has lately been besieged by Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust (see, for example, this post from last week, or this image from today); that dry air suppresses tropical cyclone formation. The animation of GOES-13 10.7 µm imagery, above, shows that this Tropical Depression formed out of an impulse that sank southward from the Carolinas over the past 6 days, so its gradual development has not been impeded by the SAL.

The VIIRS instrument on board the Suomi NPP satellite provided high-resolution imagery over this tropical system shortly after midnight on the 1st (see below). A large cirrus shield with brightness temperatures cooler than -70º C (Green in the enhancement) with a few overshooting tops that are colder than -85º C are present. An analysis of some NUCAPS Soundings from this overpass is here.

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.35 µm infrared imagery, Day/Night Band imagery (0.70 µm) and lightning data at ~0715 UTC on 1 July 2014 (click to toggle through images)

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.35 µm infrared imagery, Day/Night Band imagery (0.70 µm) and lightning data at ~0715 UTC on 1 July 2014 (click to toggle through images)

Arthur’s projected track moves the storm up the East Coast over very warm waters associated with the Gulf Stream. Both MODIS and VIIRS analyses of SSTs show widespread temperatures in excess of 80º F.

A comparison of Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel images at 0717 UTC and 1840 UTC, below, showed that the areal coverage of cold cloud tops was increasing during the day on 01 July, but the deep convection remained well to the southeast of Arthur’s low-level center of circulation.

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel images

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel images

At 1840 UTC, a comparison of the Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel image with the corresponding 0.64 µm visible channel image with an overlay lightning data, below, revealed a large number of cloud-to-ground strikes within the 1-hour period ending at 1900 UTC.

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel image and 0.64 µm visible channel image (with lightning data)

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel image and 0.64 µm visible channel image (with lightning data)

===== 02 July Update =====

GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

Arthur continued to slowly intensify on 02 July, and began to show hints of an organized eye structure on GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (above; also available as an MP4 movie file).

A comparison of AWIPS-2 images of Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.64 µm visible channel and 11.45 µm IR channel images (below) showed that the coldest cloud tops were north of the center of Arthur at 1822 UTC. A buoy just southwest of the center reported winds gusting to 52 knots (60 mph).

Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.64 µm visible channel and 11.45 µm IR channel images

Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.64 µm visible channel and 11.45 µm IR channel images

Even though an eye was not evident on GOES-13 10.7 µm IR channel imagery around 2045 UTC, a DMSP SSMIS 85 GHz microwave image at 2049 UTC did display a well-organized eye signature (below).

GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel image and DMSP SSMIS 85 GHz microwave image

GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel image and DMSP SSMIS 85 GHz microwave image

Hurricane Cristina

June 13th, 2014
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) time series plot

Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) time series plot

A tire series plot of the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (above) showed that Hurricane Cristina experienced a period of very rapid intensification during the day on 12 June 2014. Hurricane Cristina reached Category 4 status, making this the first time in the satellite era that there have been two Category 4 storms by the month of June in the East Pacific basin (the first this year was Hurricane Amanda).

McIDAS images of 4-km resolution GOES-15 10.7 µm IR channel data (below; click image to play animation) showed the rapid formation of the well-defined eye on 12 June.

GOES-15 10.7 µm IR channel images (click to pla animation)

GOES-15 10.7 µm IR channel images (click to pla animation)

An SSMIS-18 satellite 85 GHz microwave image from the CIMSS Tropical Cyclones site (below) showed the well-defined eyewall at 14:33 UTC on 12 June.

SSMIS-18 85 GHz microwave image

SSMIS-18 85 GHz microwave image

About 3 hours later, an overpass of a Metop satellite provided ASCAT surface scatterometer winds (below).

GOES-15 10.7 µm IR image with ASCAT surface scatterometer winds

GOES-15 10.7 µm IR image with ASCAT surface scatterometer winds

Offshore mesovortex affecting the inland penetration of marine stratus along the California coast

June 2nd, 2014
GOES-15 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

GOES-15 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

On 02 June 2014, McIDAS images of 1-km resolution GOES-15 0.63 µm visible channel data (above; click image to play animation) revealed the presence of a cyclonic mesoscale vortex in the vicinity of Point Reyes along the California coast, which appeared to be playing a role in enhancing the inland penetration of marine fog/stratus into areas such as the San Francisco Bay region just south of the mesovortex.

An AWIPS image of 375-meter resolution (projected onto a 1-km AWIPS grid) Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.64 µm visible channel data at 21:07 UTC (below) included overlays of surface station and buoy reports, along with MADIS 1-hour satellite-derived atmospheric motion vectors within the 1050-900 mb layer at 21 UTC. The satellite cloud-tracked winds appeared to be picking up on the cyclonic circulation of the mesovortex. At this particular time, winds at San Francisco (station identifier KSFO) were southwesterly gusting to 23 knots.

Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.64 µm visible channel image, with surface and buoy observations and 1-hour MADIS satellite winds

Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.64 µm visible channel image, with surface and buoy observations and 1-hour MADIS satellite winds

A time series of surface observation at San Francisco International Airport (below) showed the increase in layered stratus clouds (with ceilings of 1000 to 1500 feet) after the southwesterly winds began to increase around 19 UTC.

Time series of surface observations at San Francisco International Airport

Time series of surface observations at San Francisco International Airport

AWIPS images of the GOES-R Cloud Thickness product — with the GOES-R algorithm for Fog and Low Stratus products applied to GOES-15 data — indicated that the thickness of the stratus clouds moving inland across the San Francisco Bay area was only about 500 feet (below; click image to play animation). The thicker stratus clouds with depths of 1000-3000 feet remained off the coast of California.

GOES-15 Cloud Thickness product (click to play animation)

GOES-15 Cloud Thickness product (click to play animation)

The corresponding GOES-15 Marginal Visual Flight Rules (MVFR) product (below; click image to play animation) showed that MVFR probability values were generally below 50-60% in the San Francisco Bay area, with much higher probabilities existing within the offshore marine boundary layer stratus cloud field.

GOES-15 Marginal Visual Flight Rules (MVFR) Probability product (click to play animation)

GOES-15 Marginal Visual Flight Rules (MVFR) Probability product (click to play animation)

Tropical Invest 90E in the eastern Pacific Ocean

May 7th, 2014
MIMIC Total Precipitable Water product (click to play animation)

MIMIC Total Precipitable Water product (click to play animation)

AWIPS images of the MIMIC Total Precipitable Water product (above; click image to play animation) showed the well-defined cyclonic circulation associated with Tropical Invest 90E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean during the 06 May – 07 May 2014 period.

Overlays of the tropical surface analysis at 6-hour intervals (below) indicted that the area of low pressure formed in the region of a fracture in the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) / Monsoon Trough off the southwest coast of Mexico.

MIMIC TPW product with tropical surface analyses

MIMIC TPW product with tropical surface analyses

An overpass of a polar-orbiting Metop satellite provided ASCAT surface scatterometer winds at 16:41 UTC (below). The strongest winds were generally in the 20-30 knot range.

MIMIC TPW product with Metop ASCAT winds

MIMIC TPW product with Metop ASCAT winds

Near the end of the day, the lowering sun angle helped to highlight shadowing on GOES-15 0.63 µm visible channel images (below; click to play animation) associated with overshooting tops in the eastern quadrant of the low; the Tropical Overshooting Tops product helped to unambiguously highlight the location of these overshooting top features.

GOES-15 0.63 µm visible channel images, with Tropical Overshooting Tops product (click to play animation

GOES-15 0.63 µm visible channel images, with Tropical Overshooting Tops product (click to play animation)