GOES-10 10.7 µm IR images

McIDAS images of the GOES-10 10.7 µm IR channel (above) showed very cold cloud top temperatures associated with a large Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) that developed over northern Argentina and moved across Uruguay and into far southern Brazil on 19 November 2009. The MCC exhibited unusually cold IR brightness temperature values, as low as -89º C (dark purple color enhancement) at 04:58 UTC. In addition, early in the animation you can see several “enhanced-v” signatures on the IR imagery — this satellite signature indicates that severe convective storms have a high potential for producing damaging winds, large hail, or tornadoes. There were media reports of a tornado and hail in parts of Uruguay, and according to the Metsul Blog this MCC produced very strong winds (gusting to 82 mph or 36.8 meters per second) and heavy rainfall (2.8 inches or 70 mm in 2 hours) as the storm moved into the Rio Grande do Sul region of southern Brazil.

GOES-10 (launched in 1997) is currently positioned in orbit at approximately 60 degrees West longitude in support of the Earth Observation Partnership of the Americas EOPA project or GEOSS Americas — however, due to end-of-life fuel conditions, GOES-10 will cease operations on 01 December 2009.

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MIMIC Total Precipitable Water product

AWIPS images of the MIMIC Total Precipitable Water (TPW) product (above) revealed the formation of a long “atmospheric river” of moisture over the North Atlantic Ocean during the 17-19 November 2009 period. MIMIC TPW values were as high as 60 mm (darker orange color enhancement) within the moisture plume.

The surface analysis (below) showed that this moist plume was along and ahead of a cold front that was trailing southward from a deepening mid-latitude cyclone. This plume of moisture was contributing to very heavy rainfall and significant flooding over parts of the United Kingdom — Seathwaite reported a 24-hour rainfall amount of 12.36 inches (314 mm), which if confirmed as accurate will set a new record for 24-hour precipitation in the UK (UK Met Office).

MIMIC TPW with surface analysis

A composite of GOES-12 and Meteosat-9 water vapor imagery (below) suggested that this long atmospheric river tapped into a pocket of deep tropical moisture (associated with the remnants of what was formerly Hurricane/Tropical Storm Ida), and was then brought northward within the warm conveyor belt in advance of the deepening cyclone over the North Atlantic Ocean.

GOES-12 and Meteosat-9 water vapor imagery

The Blended Total Precpitable Water – Percent of Normal product (below) indicated that this moist plume was rather anomalous for the season over the North Atlantic region, containing values of TPW that exceeded 200% of normal (yellow color enhancement).

Blended Total Precipitable Water - Percent of Normal

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MODIS visible and near-IR snow/ice channel images

CIMSS has been distributing MODIS imagery and products in AWIPS (via LDM subscription) since 2006 — and we are now in the process of testing and evaluating AVHRR imagery and products for distribution to NWS forecast offices via a similar process. Let’s now utilize a few of these MODIS and AVHRR products to interrogate snow cover and cloud features across parts of Idaho and western Montana on 13 November 2009. A comparison of the 1-km resolution MODIS visible channel and 2.1 µm near-IR “snow/ice channel” images (above) showed a broad area of snow cover across the region, which fell during the previous 2 days. Snow cover (in addition to dense tree cover, and water) are strong absorbers at the 2.1 µm wavelength, so these features appear much darker on the snow/ice channel image — therefore, bright features on the visible image that are also dark on the snow/ice image are indeed snow. The maximum snow depth at the time was 17 inches (43 cm) at Bozeman (station identifier KBZN), located near the center of the images.

A comparison of the 1-km resolution MODIS snow/ice channel and the MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) product (below) revealed that this area of snow cover was having an obvious effect on Land Surface Temperatures across the state of Montana: LST values in the bare ground portions of the east were in the 40º to 50º F range (green to yellow colors), while the areas with deep snow on the ground exhibited LST values in the +5º to +15º F range (cyan to blue colors). The daily high temperatures across the state of Montana on 13 November ranged from 20º F at Three Forks in the southwest to 44º F at Glendive in the far east — and the coldest morning low was -14º F at Wisdom in the far west.

MODIS snow/ice channel and Land Surface Temperature product

Now let’s focus our attention on the cloud features that were over parts of Idaho and Montana at that time. A comparison of the 1-km resolution MODIS 11.0 µm “IR window” and 3.7 µm “shortwave IR” images (below) showed that there were some very cold cloud features that were likely cirrus (brightness temperatures of -30º to -40º C, blue to green colors) over northern Idaho and far northwestern Montana on the IR window image — however, there was a large area of clouds located just to the east of those cirrus clouds that exhibited significantly warmer (+15º to +25º C, darker gray) appearance on the 3.7 µm shortwave IR image. The shortwave IR channel is very sensitive to the reflection of solar radiation of the tops of supercooled water droplet clouds — so a quick comparison of the IR window and the shortwave IR channels offers some cursory information on the character and composition of various cloud features. Note that there also appeared to be a few other darker patches of supercooled water droplet clouds located over parts of southwestern Montana and southern Idaho.

MODIS 11.0 µm IR window and 3.7 µm shortwave IR images

The 4-km resolution MODIS Cloud Phase product (below) offered confirmation about the presence of ice crystal cirrus clouds (salmon color enhancement) over northern Idaho and far northwestern Montana, with supercooled water droplet clouds (blue color enhancement) located farther to the east.

MODIS Cloud Phase product

The 1-km resolution AVHRR Cloud Type product (below) supported the MODIS Cloud Phase product, indicating supercooled water droplet cloud (cyan color enhancement) to the east of the various classifications of ice crystal cloud (yellow, orange, and red color enhancements) over northern Idaho and far northwestern Montana.

AVHRR Cloud Type product

The 1-km resolution AVHRR Cloud Top Temperature (CTT) product (below) showed that the area of supercooled water droplet cloud exhibited CTT values of -18º to -20º C (cyan colors), with the cirrus cloud features farther to the west exhibiting CTT values as cold as -40º to -50º C (darker blue colors).

AVHRR Cloud Top Temperature product

The 1-km resolution AVHRR Cloud Top Height product (below) indicated that the tops of the supercooled water droplet clouds over northwestern Montana were around 4 km or 13,000 feet (light yellow color enhancement), with the tops of the cirrus clouds farther to the west at a much higher 8 km or 26,000 feet (darker orange color enhancement).

AVHRR Cloud Top Height product

The 1-km resolution AVHRR Cloud Particle Effective Radius product (below) indicated that the supercooled water droplet cloud particles in northwestern Montana were generally in the 20-25 micrometer range (cyan colors), with the cirrus cloud ice crystals farther west at a much larger 40-50 micrometers (darker blue colors).

AVHRR Cloud Particle Effective Radius product

For the sake of comparison, let’s also examine the corresponding “10 km” resolution GOES Sounder Cloud Top Height (CTH) derived product image (below), which actually has an effective field of view closer to 20 km for large satellite viewing angles over the northern Lower 48 states — Sounder CTH values ranged from 7,000-12,000 feet (orange to yellow to green colors) for the supercooled water droplet clouds in northwestern Montana up to 35,000 feet (lighter cyan colors) for the cirrus clouds located just to the west.

Note that the GOES Sounder Cloud Top Height product (as well as some of the AVHRR cloud products shown above) indicated a number of “false cloud features” in the area of the deep snow cover over southwestern Montana — the large temperature gradients associated with the edges of such areas of snow cover can sometimes fool the cloud product algorithms into portraying cloud top height or cloud top temperature data where no clouds actually exist.

GOES Sounder Cloud Top Height derived product image

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A strong storm is bringing high winds and rain to the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to New Jersey. This dangerous weather will persist through tomorrow. The weather results from the combination of the extratropically transitioned remnants of Ida — over southern North Carolina — and a strong high pressure system over New England. (See a surface analysis here). Various satellite-derived products can be used to explore this system.

Consider the water vapor loop above. Towards the end of the loop, features in the vapor are developing and moving westward over Virginia and North Carolina. That observation combined with the continued eastward motion in the water vapor signal over the southeast part of the US suggests the formation of a closed circulation. Such a development will slow the eastward progression of the system, prolonging the period of stormy weather on the coast.

Satellite observations of total precipitable water (a blended product from AMSU and SSM/I on the NOAA series of Polar Orbiters) show large values — greater than 200% of normal — over the eastern United States. Superimposed near-surface winds from the QuikScat scatterometer show a broad region of gale-force winds over the Ocean. The long fetch of the wind over open ocean will allow large waves to develop. (A zoomed-in version of the QuikScat winds, here, includes a 57-knot wind with a rain flag of only 1% — meaning it’s a “good” wind. Peak surface wind gusts from reporting stations on land at this time included 44 knots at Norfolk, Virginia, 43 knots at Wallops Island, Virginia, and 42 knots at Elizabeth City, NC). The long duration of the storm event and the winds will exacerbate matters. A loop of precipitable water derived from SSMI and AMSRE (here) shows the tropical origins of the moisture over the eastern part of the United States, and also the movement of more moisture in from the east.

Abundant moisture is leading to large rainfalls. Rainfall rates are estimated using data from the AMSU instrument on the NOAA series of POES spacecraft. There are numerous pixels in the short loop above, including suggesting rains exceeding 20 mm per hour. There is also a westward drift suggested in the loop.

Visible image loops (rocking loops) from GOES-12 and GOES-14 show the westward drift of clouds into western Virginia and the Carolinas as the system starts to close off. A near-surface circulation center can also be inferred over southern North Carolina.

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