Visible imagery over Hurricane Milton after sunrise on 7 October, above, shows a compact system about 100 miles northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. The predicted track of the storm center is superimposed on the imagery. Note that Milton’s sustained winds at 1500 UTC, 135 knots, represents an 80-knot increase over the previous 24 hours. Only 2 Atlantic Basin storms have strengthened more rapidly (source). Milton is forecast to move just south of due east, before turning northeastward towards Florida (where preparations for the storm should be completing). Milton on Monday morning is in a region of very warm water, and in an atmosphere with little shear, as shown below (analyses from this website). Much stronger shear is present over the northern Gulf, however.

The animation below shows upper-level water vapor infrared imagery (Band 8, 6.19) along with GLM observations of Flash Extent Density and GOES-16 Derived Motion Wind vectors. Lightning is observed within the eye of Milton, a hallmark of rapidly-developing tropical cyclones. In addition, the very strong shear over the northern Gulf is apparent: east-northeast winds at low levels with very strong west-southwest winds aloft. The satellite-derived winds also show the characteristic anticyclone over the hurricane. Note, however, that the Day Night Band imagery over Milton (from NOAA-21, at 0802 UTC, downloaded from this site) shows no evidence of lightning near the eye at that time.

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Dry air can weaken hurricanes. Is there any evidence of dry air in the vicinity of Milton? The Band 8 imagery above shows dry air over the northern Gulf, far from Milton. MIMIC Total Precipitable water fields, below (source), for the 24 hours ending a 1400 UTC show abundant moisture surrounding the storm. Also apparent in that animation: the front moving south into the Deep South. The circulation with this system will have a bearing on the future path and strength of Milton.

Interest on Florida, on both west coasts from north of Tampa to the Keys, and on the east coast from Jacksonville to north of Miami, should closely monitor the progress of this storm. For the latest information refer to the National Hurricane Center, and the NWS Forecast offices in Tampa, Jacksonville, Melbourne, Miami and Key West.

GOES-19 is undergoing post-launch testing and is considered to be preliminary/non-operational by NOAA. Satellite operators were able to capture several hours of 30-second mesoscale imagery of Hurricane Milton on October 7, 2024. There are some missing times in the animation because of missing data and some poorly navigated images, which is not unexpected during post-launch testing.

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NOAA was formed on October 3, 1970. To commemorate this date, a few GOES related figures. GOES has been around since 1975, although there were earlier non-operational versions operated by NASA, such as ATS.

H/T

These GOES-19 ABI are early images (preliminary and non-operational), beta stage. Both McIDAS-X and geo2grid software was used in generating these images, using data via the UW/SSEC Data Services. More about GOES-16 and GOES-18. T. Schmit works for NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, from Madison, Wisconsin.

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ABI

There are many examples of GOES monitoring the Moon’s shadow on the Earth. This example below occurred on October 2, 2024 and is the CIMSS true color RGB composite from the (Preliminary/Non-operational) GOES-19 ABI. A link to the mp4. And a loop that extends to 21 UTC. Another blog on GOES-19 ABI.

In general, images that have been Raleigh-corrected can make the region of the shadow appear larger. Two examples are below (SSEC GOES-West and East) and the CIRA geoColor.

SUVI

The SUVI also saw the Moon, as it passed in front of the Sun.

A 6-panel SUVI image from near 16 UTC.

More SUVI imagery are available from the SWPC and the UW/SSEC (including RGBs and daily 6-panels).

H/T

These GOES-19 ABI are early images (preliminary and non-operational), beta stage. Both McIDAS-X and geo2grid software was used in generating these images, using data via the UW/SSEC Data Services. More about GOES-16 and GOES-18. T. Schmit works for NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, from Madison, Wisconsin.

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As first hinted at in this blog post, the Community Satellite Processing Package for Geostationary Data (CSPP-Geo) (https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/csppgeo/ ) group at CIMSS has released a beta version of a unix-based package that computes LightningCast probabilities.  LightningCast (available online in real time for select regions) diagnoses the probability of a Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) observation of lightning within the next hour, given a suite of ABI Channels (Bands 2, 5, 13, 15, that is: 0.64 µm, 1.61 µm, 10.3 µm, 12.3 µm) or AHI Channels (Bands 3, 5, 13, 15; 0.64 µm, 1.61 µm, 10.4 µm, 12.3 µm).  Output is in the form of GeoJSON files, GR Placefiles, netCDF files (including AWIPS-compatible netCDFs), and imagery with lightning probability contours overlain on top (as shown above).  The software will also plot GLM Flash Extent Density fields if you have access to the gridded GLM fields (and CSPP Geo has a package that will create those if you don’t).  The package works on GOES-R CONUS/PACUS domains, or mesoscale domains, or within subsected regions of the Full Disk (provided the subsected region is smaller than about twice the size of the CONUS/PACUS domain).  The generated contours can also be parallax-corrected.

Access to the software does require a free log-in that supplies your email to the CSPP Geo team.  This email is used for follow-on support for things like updates and patches that might occur.  Download the package (from here) to a clean directory on your machine, un-tar it, and you’re ready to go.

The following (simple!) command, run in the directory created when the downloaded software package is un-tarred, created the image shown up top. Refer to the users’ manual for a complete set of commands. Note that the domain created — from 53^oW to 70^oW and 1^oN to 10^oN — is not available at the RealEarth instance.

./lightningcast --skip-geojson --make-dcp-image --ll-bbox -70.0 -53.0 1.0 10.0 /path_to_GOES16_Data/abi/L1b/RadF/*M6C02*s20242761420*

The software allows you (if you wish) to change the contour values from the defaults of 10/25/50/75. That is shown in the invocation that created the imagery beneath the code.

./lightningcast --skip-geojson --make-dcp-image --ll-bbox -70.0 -53.0 1.0 10.0 --probability-contours 1 2 5 50 90 --image-probability-colors "#00A5A5" "#00FFFF" "#00FF44" "#554400" "#FF1010"  /path_to_GOES16_Data/abi/L1b/RadF/*M6C02*s20242761420*

CSPP Geosphere imagery subsequent to the LightningCast Probabilities shown above is below. Where do you think lightning has occurred?

As noted above, the software package creates LightningCast probabilities with Himawari data as well, as along as you have access to Himawari HSD data. The following command created the imagery at the bottom. Note in all the invocations in the blog post that the file name specified resolves to one unique file. The software package will be able to resolve the other data needed from this one file name.

./lightningcast --skip-geojson --make-dcp-image --ll-bbox 110.0 130.0 -1.0 10.0   /path_to_HSD_Data/HS_H09_20241002_0500_B03_FLDK_R05_S0110.DAT

LightningCast software released is a beta version of the code. If you encounter unexpected behavior, please report it!

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