RADARSAT Constellation Mission One (RCM1) passed over Nepartak at 0828 UTC on 27 July 2021, and the image above shows the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) winds derived at that time. There is a widespread region of ~40-knot winds (cyan to green in the color enhancement), a bit stronger than the 30-knot winds viewed by MetopA at 1040 UTC (shown here, in this blog post). How certain can a forecaster be of the even-stronger winds that exist in an area near the coast near 37.4ºN, 141.4ºE, and in an arc from 37.5ºN, 142.5ºE to 37.2ºN, 144ºE? There are isolated SAR estimates in that band that are near 60 knots! Are there other data sources to confirm that kind of wind? (See information at the bottom for clarification!)

The image below shows Himawari-8 Clean window imagery at 0829 UTC, just after the image above. Three points with cold cloud tops, suggestive of more vigorous convection, are indicated: (37.6ºN, 141.18ºE); (37.57ºN, 143.01ºE); (37.35ºN, 144.01ºE). The structures in the infrared imagery do match the structures in the SAR winds, but offset a bit to the north in the Himawari-8 imagery, as expected because of the parallax shift: features will be displaced away from the sub-satellite point, with the displacement increasing for higher clouds, and for greater distance from the sub-satellite point (on the Equator at 140.2ºE for Himawari-8). Convective downdrafts could be responsible for the highest winds shown in the SAR analysis.

The strong winds in the image are not observations of strong winds by SAR. Rather, these are most likely the result of reflection off of ice in the atmosphere — ice that is likely to be present around convective towers that have glaciated. (Thanks to Christopher Jackson, GST/NOAA, for this information!)

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GOES-16 “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) images (top) and “Clean” Infrared Window (10.35 µm) images (bottom), with plots of SPC Storm Reports [click to play animation | MP4]

1–minute Mesoscale Domain Sector GOES-16 (GOES-East) “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) images and “Clean” Infrared Window (10.35 µm) images (above) include time-matched plots of SPC Storm Reports produced by supercell thunderstorms that moved east-southeastward across northern Minnesota during the afternoon and early evening hours on 26 July 2021. Severe reports included a tornado at 2213 UTC and hail as large as to 3.0 inches in diameter at 2334 UTC. These storms developed near and north of a warm/stationary frontal boundary (surface analyses).

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As the games of the 2021 Olympics progress, a weakening Tropical Storm Nepartak is moving over coastal waters to the east of Honshu, the main island of Japan. The Total Precipitable Water imagery, above, from MIMIC TPW, shows a plume of moisture wrapped around the circulation center. Himawari-8 Clean Window infrared (10.41 µm) imagery, below , from the Himawari-8 Target scene (courtesy of JMA; here’s a link to more JMA satellite imagery), shows the progression of the storm.

The forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) as of 1800 UTC has the weakening storm backing into northern Honshu (forecast track; it’s also available from JMA). As of 2300 UTC, the center of Nepartak had moved north to Tokyo’s latitude, and convective bands on the west side of the storm are affecting areas around Tokyo, Yokohama, Sagami Bay and Chiba prefecture. Interests in Japan should monitor closely the progress of this storm.

Visible imagery from shortly after sunrise on Tuesday 27 July in Japan shows the storm to the east of Japan; very little convection is within the storm center.

Metop-A overflew Japan at around 1040 UTC on 27 July. Scatterometry (source) showed the wind structure of the storm very nicely.

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The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather over the western Atlantic, to the north of the Bahamas and south of Cape Hatteras. The three-hour animation from the CSPP GeoSphere site (link, above), shows convection and a small low-level cyclonic circulation. This system is drifting to the east, towards Florida, and is in an environment of small values of vertical wind shear (the analysis below is from the CIMSS Tropical Weather Site) that could augur further development. Refer to the pages of the National Hurricane Center for more information.

The Day Night Band image from Suomi NPP, below, from the early morning of 25 July 2021, (from the VIIRS Today website) shows the storm under the waning Buck Full Moon. Compare that to the NOAA-20 Day Night Band image from 24 July, the night before (link): the amount of convection decreased between 24 and 25 July.

On the morning of 26 July 2021, the disturbance is moving into Florida/Georgia. Convection associated with the system is not over its center. (CSPP Geosphere link)

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