Cold temperatures over the Great Lakes (the Green Bay 850-mb sounding temperatures, for example, were -11.9º C at 0000 UTC and -8.1º C at 1200 UTC) on 18-19 November 2021 generated extensive cloud cover and occasional snow showers. The nighttime microphysics RGB, above, showed extensive stratiform clouds downwind of Lake Michigan. The GOES-16 Cloud Top Phase product at this time (here) uniformly showed water droplets over lower Michigan.

Skies over eastern Lake Michigan were clear enough at 0811 UTC to allow some lake-surface temperature computations using NOAA-20 VIIRS channels and the ACSPO algorithm. Diagnosed lake-surface temperatures are in the low 50s (º Fahrenheit; the colorbar range is 40º to 55º F).

NUCAPS Sounding Availability points are also shown in the image above, and three points near/over western Lake Michigan — near Escanaba MI, east of Sheboygan WI, and near Racine, WI — are shown below.

NUCAPS profiles on this day over western Lake Michigan were uniformly warmer than 2-hour forecast NAM Nest profiles from the 0600 UTC model run. The image below compares (via Sharppy, using the NUCAPS in the Cloud methodology outlined here) model (red and green lines) and NUCAPS (purple lines) near Escanaba. NUCAPS shows warmer low-level temperatures (and also cooler mid/upper-tropospheric temperatures). Comparisons for the NUCAPS point east of Sheboygan and NAM Nest values at Sheboygan, and the NUCAPS point near Racine and the NAM Nest values at Milwaukee (note that for those two linked plots, the colors are flipped: NUCAPS Temperature and Dewpoint are red and green, respectively, and NAM Nest values are purple) are similar: NUCAPS values in the lowest part of the atmosphere are warmer than the NAM Nest. How might that affect the downwind production of lake-effect clouds and precipitation?

NUCAPS profiles give a model-independent estimate of temperature and dewpoint in the atmosphere. They are available about halfway (in time) between routine upper-air soundings in the lower 48 states of the USA. ‘NUCAPS Sounding Availability’ can be found under the ‘Satellite > S-NPP and NOAA-20’ menu.

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In-flight turbulence affected Hawaiian Air Flight 51 (JFK to HNL) late in the afternoon on 17 November 2021 (Click here for the flight path from the flightaware website. A screen-capture of the flight levels, below (cropped from the FlightAware website), shows turbulence occurring between 0141 and 0145 UTC on 18 November as the plane was flying at FL400 near 22.5º N, 154º W. That places the storm in the middle of MOG values exceeding 50% in a convective storm to the northeast of Hawaii, a storm in which other planes were also experiencing turbulence, as shown in the animation above (taken from the CIMSS Turbulence website). Here is the image for 0150 UTC, right after the turbulence affected the aircraft.

One passenger suffered a minor head injury during this event, and declined treatment. (Link). Training on this product is available at this site (direct link to recording is here).

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GOES-17 ABI Imagery (and level 2 Products), below, show persistent vigorous convection developing in a region with Lifted Indices around -2. Level 2 Cloud Top Height, at bottom, (the colorbar has been modified from default values to 35000-45000 feet), show persistent development of cloud tops exceeding 40000 feet, the cruising level of HAL51!

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GOES-17 (GOES-West) True Color RGB images created using Geo2Grid (above) showed a cyclonically-rotating actinoform cloud feature that was moving west-southwestward across the East Pacific Ocean (about midway between Hawai’i and California) on 16 November 2021.

In GOES-17 Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB images (below), the increasing shades of green exhibited by the curved bands of shallow convection suggested that those features were likely mixed-phase clouds — composed of a combination of liquid/supercooled water droplets and ice particles. 

Similarly, in a toggle between NOAA-20 VIIRS True Color and False Color RGB images viewed using RealEarth (below), darker shades of cyan suggested the presence of mixed-phase banded cloud elements within the core of the actinoform feature.

Other examples of actinoform clouds can be examined by scrolling through this link.

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MIMIC Total Precipitable Water, shown above, shows a narrow ribbon of rich moisture stretching from north of Hawaii northeastward to the Pacific Northwest. Rainfall associated with this Atmospheric Rivr resulted in widespread flooding over Washington State (USA) and British Columbia (Canada). The system also generated very strong winds.

CMORPH estimates of rain, below, from Real Earth, show substantial 24-h rain amounts on 14-15 November, with peak values on 15 November of 75 mm in southern British Columbia. (This automated gauge along the Nooksack River at North Cedarville WA showed >4″ of rain (graph)) The 7-day accumulation ending at 2359 UTC on 15 November shows a few values in excess of 200 mm. CMORPH estimates suggest that heaviest rains were just north of the US-Canada border.

The excess rain’s impact on Nooksack Falls, north of Washington’s Mt Baker are shown below.

Satellite estimates of flooding are available at this website. For example, the image below (from this direct RealEarth link) shows flood extent over northwestern Washington (note the US-Canada border in the image) on 16 November 2021.

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News videos of the impact of the flooding on the Sumas Prairie near Abbottsford are here, here, here and here. Click here for video footage from near Sumas, WA. Other Washington imagery is here. This storm was well-forecast, as noted here.

Measured streamflow on the Nooksack River reached historic or near-historic volumes, as shown in these streamflow plots at North Cedarville (graph), Everson (graph) and Ferndale (graph) (all from this site).

NOAA-20 true-color imagery, below, from 31 October and 16 November, taken from the VIIRS Today website, show silt from this flood event.

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The difference between the 16 November and 17 November Joint ABI/VIIRS Flood Extent product is shown below. The extensive flooding on the Sumas Prairie near Abbotsford in Canada is apparent.

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