RealEarth recently added Full Disk versions of IFR Probability and Low IFR Probability products for both GOES East (GOES-16) and GOES West (GOES-17). The animation above shows the simple way to display them: go to the RealEarth site (link), and enter ‘IFR Probability’ into the Search Tool, then drag the GOES-16 or GOES-17 thumbnail onto the globe. GOES-16 and GOES-17 Full Disk imagery typically has a 10-minute cadence. Did you notice in the GOES-17 Full Disk image the signal over the big island of Hawai’i? That’s also shown below, toggling with the GOES-17 ‘Clean Window’ Infrared (10.3 µm) Band 13 image. IFR Probability is highest along the slopes of Hawai’i’s volcanoes; IFR Probability computation does have knowledge of terrain height.

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CSPP Geosphere is a GOES-16 visualization website that uses Cloud Computing (and CSPPGeo software) to create imagery. The animation above shows the Night Microphysics RGB over the central United States starting at 0856 UTC and extending 12 frames (as noted in the saved mp4 filename). The animation above uses a more accurate definition of the Night Microphysics RGB; you can tell the difference in temperature in the low clouds between the cold stratus (yellow enhancement) over the Midwest and the warmer clouds (closer to blue/cyan) over the southern Plains and over North Carolina. Note that there are also low clouds over Alabama under the high clouds; perhaps IFR Probability fields (available in RealEarth) over that state are a more logical choice to define low clouds there.

The new CSPP Geosphere site — being tested now at CIMSS — includes GOES-17 data (and will include GOES-18 data when available, as GOES-18 support is currently being added to CSPP Geo software). Thus, one can create imagery over the Pacific Ocean including Hawaii.

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The new Geosphere site should be available in Summer 2022.

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1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector GOES-16 (GOES-East) “Red” Visible (0.64 µm), Shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm) and Infrared Window (10.35 µm) images along with 5-minute Fire Temperature images (above) showed intensification of 3 portions of the combined Calf Canyon Fire and Hermits Peak Fire in New Mexico on 01 May 2022. Active fire behavior was aided by surface winds gusts in the 45-54 mph range and very dry air within the boundary layer; these large fires also burned very hot, with 3.9 µm Shortwave Infrared brightness temperatures reaching 138.71ºC — the saturation temperature of ABI Band 7 detectors. Coldest 10.35 µm cloud-top brightness temperatures of intermittent pyroCumulus clouds were around -37ºC (darker yellow enhancement). The Fire Temperature derived product is a component of the GOES Fire Detection and Characterization Algorithm FDCA.

However, in a comparison of 375-meter resolution NOAA-20 VIIRS True Color RGB, Shortwave Infrared (3.74 µm) and Infrared Window (11.45 µm) images valid at 2026 UTC — downloaded and processed using the SSEC/CIMSS Direct Broadcast ground station (below), a small cluster of cloud-top 11.45 µm brightness temperatures of -40 to -43.6ºC (red enhancement) indicated that this feature met the criteria for classification as a pyrocumulonimbus cloud.

The Calf Canyon Fire previously generated a pyroCb cloud on 22 April.

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The animation above shows GOES-16 Band 13 Infrared imagery (10.3 µm) monitoring the development of the tornadic thunderstorm just east of Wichita that spawned the EF-3 Andover, KS, tornado (on the ground from 0110 through 0131 UTC) on 30 April 2022 (SPC Storm Reports; Write-up on storms from NWS Wichita). The storm responsible for the tornado was ahead of the cold front, which front is obvious in the infrared imagery to the west of Cherokee (OK) and Anthony (KS). Polar Hyperspectral Soundings (available at this website) are being demonstrated at the Hazardous Weather Testbed this year (starting in late May); how did those model products do with this isolated storm out in front of the approaching cold front? The animation below shows the Significant Tornado Parameter forecasts at 0100 UTC from forecasts starting from 1800 through 2300 UTC on 29 April. Maximum values of STP are over the southeast Kansas, especially for the forecasts initialized at 2100 and 2300 UTC. Guidance was suggesting where to focus attention on the possibility of strongest convection.

The PHSnMWnABI model outputs other variables, of course, and the updraft velocity at the Level of Free Convection (LFC) and the hourly Liquid Precipitation are shown below. Note the two separate regions of convection (based on the updraft velocities), and how a strong system is present near Wichita at 0100 UTC from the 2300 UTC initialization. The forecast model is pointing a forecaster towards the type of evolution that might happen: Convection in more than one location — with strong updrafts along the front (notable in the Lifted Index and CAPE fields — not shown) but also convection out ahead of that feature as shown in the updraft velocities in the 2300 UTC model run (shown at bottom)

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What did other forecasting models show for this event? The animation below shows ensemble mean STP from the HREF initialized at 1200 UTC on 29 April. (imagery courtesy Jim Caruso, SOO at WFO ICT). STP increases in the vicinity of the observed tornado between 0000 and 0100 UTC. HREF Ensemble Mean Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy (MUCAPE) has an axis over the Andover region; updraft helicity signatures are also shown.

A regression of the 4-h max probability of Tornado (here), from a 2200 UTC initialization and valid through 0200 UTC, shows highest probabilities encompassing most of Butler County (in which Andover is the most populous city). Forecast updraft helicities are greatest just north of Andover.

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