The Storm Prediction Center predicted a moderate risk of severe weather (link) over the southern Plains of the US on 15 June 2023. The animation above shows surface-based CAPE derived from 4-km WRF model output. This model incorporates information from Polar Hyperspectral Soundings via the Fusion process. Model CAPE fields are overlain... Read More

Cincinnati’s 25th running of the Flying Pig Marathon commenced on the morning of Sunday, May 7th, despite deteriorating weather conditions. After a round of storms at about 09:30 UTC, which subsequently passed through, race officials began the marathon as scheduled at 10:30 UTC. Figure 1 shows the composite reflectivity and LightningCast contours... Read More

A long-wave diffluent trough centered over California and Nevada was helping to force benign convection along the Laramie Mountains, which run roughly from Laramie to Casper, Wyoming. The ProbSevere LightningCast model, which uses AI and GOES-R data to predict the probability of lightning in the next hour, was able to highlight... Read More

There was a conditional outlook for severe storms in Oklahoma on April 19th, owing to uncertainty in the forcing for ascent and a stout warm-sector cap. Well, the cap broke, and mayhem ensued in central Oklahoma. A break in the cirrus deck in southwest Oklahoma likely contributed to surface heating... Read More