A long-wave diffluent trough centered over California and Nevada was helping to force benign convection along the Laramie Mountains, which run roughly from Laramie to Casper, Wyoming. The ProbSevere LightningCast model, which uses AI and GOES-R data to predict the probability of lightning in the next hour, was able to highlight... Read More

There was a conditional outlook for severe storms in Oklahoma on April 19th, owing to uncertainty in the forcing for ascent and a stout warm-sector cap. Well, the cap broke, and mayhem ensued in central Oklahoma. A break in the cirrus deck in southwest Oklahoma likely contributed to surface heating... Read More

The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere team created a tool to help forecasters monitor the time tendency of lightning potential at a static point. The static points in the map below are mostly civilian airports and army airfields throughout the U.S. From the ProbSevere LightningCast website, a user can toggle on the “Lightning meteograms” layer... Read More

The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere LightningCast model uses GOES-R ABI reflectances and brightness temperatures along with artificial intelligence methods to predict next-hour lightning anywhere in the GOES-R field of view. It is particularly adept at nowcasting lightning initiation. A long, potent cold front spawned a number of storms from Iowa to Texas today... Read More