A shortwave impulse spawned numerous supercell thunderstorms in a highly unstable and well-sheared environment in the Southeast U.S. ProbSevere v3 readily tracked numerous severe and tornadic storms across the region.One storm in particular produced tornadoes in Madison, Alabama, and prompted a tornado emergency warning. In this example, the ProbTor v3 was much higher... Read More

On March 19, a potent shortwave trough forced the development of a strong surface cyclone and moisture return into central Illinois, with ample surface theta-e and deep-layer shear to sustain surface-based convection.In the animation below, you can see the quickly developing convection and associated ProbSevere v3 contours evolve. The storm... Read More

Blizzards, dust storms, fires, floods, thunderstorms and tornadoes were the result of very strong back-to-back negatively tilted shortwave troughs through the eastern half of the U.S. From Texas to Wisconsin, New York to Florida, severe wind gusts, large hail, and deadly tornadoes were recorded. The hardest hit states during the... Read More

I awoke to thunderstorms in Madison, Wisconsin this morning. The elevated storms were riding a warm front at 850 mb, fueled by moderate-to-strong warm-air advection.This was a good opportunity to look at ProbSevere LightningCast version 2, which includes Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) Reflectivity -10C as a predictor, along with several visible, near-infrared,... Read More