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Catastrophic flash flooding event in the Hill Country of Texas responsible for at least 130 fatalities

By Scott Bachmeier •

5-minute GOES-19 Infrared (10.3 µm) images centered on Kerr County, Texas from 0001-1801 UTC on 04 July — along with plots of 15-minute METAR surface reports [click to play MP4 animation]

5-minute CONUS Sector GOES-19 (GOES-East) Infrared images displayed using RealEarth (above) showed the clusters of thunderstorms that produced up to 9.40″ of rainfall near Ingram (located between Hunt and Kerrville) in Kerr County, Texas during the 24-hour period ending at 1700 UTC (Noon local time) on 04 July 2025. The resulting flash flooding was responsible for at least 130 fatalities (including up to 96 in Kerr County, with 27 of those at the Camp Mystic summer camp located just northwest of Hunt) and over 850 high-water rescues. With rainfall rates as high as 3-4″ per hour at some upstream locations, the Guadalupe River at Comfort rapidly rose to 34.76 feet.

The same sequence of 5-minute GOES-19 Infrared images is shown below — but on a map of County outlines, and including plots of the numerous Flood Advisories, Flood Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings that were issued during that 18-hour period.

5-minute GOES-19 Infrared (10.3 µm) images centered on Kerr County, Texas from 0001-1801 UTC on 04 July, with plots of Flood Advisories (green polygons), Flood Warnings (brighter/solid green polygons) and Flash Flood Warnings (red polygons) against County outlines — along with plots of 15-minute METAR surface reports [click to play MP4 animation]

An animation of the MIMIC Total Precipitable Water product (below) revealed a plume of tropical moisture that was moving northward across south-central Texas during the 02-04 July period, helping to create an environment that was favorable for thunderstorm development (a longer animation beginning on 29 June indicated that this plume of tropical moisture was likely enhanced by the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, after it made landfall in eastern Mexico late in the day on 29 June).

Hourly MIMIC Total Precipitable Water product, from 0000 UTC on 02 July to 1900 UTC on 04 July

The Precipitable Water (PW) value derived from rawinsonde data at Del Rio, Texas at 0000 UTC on 04 July was 2.34″ — just 0.09″ below the climatological maximum of 2.43″ for all Del Rio soundings on 04 July at 0000 UTC (below).

Plot of rawinsonde data from Del Rio, Texas at 0000 UTC on 04 July [click to enlarge]


Climatology of Precipitable Water values for all Del Rio, Texas soundings at 0000 UTC on 04 July [click to enlarge]

Categories: GOES-19, Heavy rain / flooding, Hydrology, Microwave, RealEarth