Matthew along the east coast of Florida

October 7th, 2016 |

GOES-13 Visible (0.63 µm) Imagery, 1230-1337 UTC (Click to enlarge)

Hurricane Matthew is on a path that parallels the coast of Florida, with the center remaining just offshore. GOES-13 Visible imagery from a 1-hour time period this morning, above, shows the continued development of convection around the eyewall and the motion of convective bands inland. GOES-13 Visible images with hourly surface winds and wind gusts (in knots) are shown below. The highest wind gust recorded along the central Florida coast was 107 mph (NWS Melbourne PNS).

GOES-13 Visible (0.63 um) images, with hourly surface winds and gusts in knots [Click to play animation]

GOES-13 Visible (0.63 um) images, with hourly surface winds and gusts in knots [Click to play animation]

A 24-hour animation of morphed Microwave imagery (from this site), below, suggests that an eyewall replacement cycle has completed: the very small eye present at storm’s center at the start of the animation has been replaced by a larger-diameter eye at the end of the animation. Storm strength typically drops during eyewall replacements. Note also that the microwave data shows that the strongest convection remained offshore.

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Morphed Microwave Imagery of Matthew showing Strongest Convection, 1200 UTC 06 October to 1100 UTC 07 October 2016 (Click to enlarge)

Infrared imagery from GOES-13, below, also shows the coldest cloud tops to the east of the eye (indicated by the arrow in the image).

GOES-13 Infrared (10.7 µm) Imagery, 1355 UTC. The flashing arrow points to Matthew’s eye (Click to enlarge)

A longer animation of GOES-13 Infrared Window (10.7 um) images with hourly surface winds and wind gusts (in knots) is shown below (MP4 | animated GIF).

GOES-13 Infrared Window (10.7 um) images [Click to play animation]

GOES-13 Infrared Window (10.7 um) images [Click to play animation]

A toggle between Suomi NPP VIIRS Visible (0.64 um) and Infrared Window (11.45 um) images at 1751 UTC is shown below; Matthew was a Category 3 hurricane at that time.

Suomi NPP VIIRS Visible (0.64 um) and Infrared Window (11.45 um) images [Click to enlarge]

Suomi NPP VIIRS Visible (0.64 um) and Infrared Window (11.45 um) images [Click to enlarge]

Hurricane Matthew moves into the Bahamas

October 5th, 2016 |
morphedmw_matthew_last48hrs_ending5oct_1000

Morphed Microwave Imagery showing the eye of Matthew from 1400 UTC 3 October through 1345 UTC 5 October (Click to enlarge)

The animation of Matthew, above, from morphed microwave imagery (from this site), shows the toll that interaction with the high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba has had on the storm (causing it to be downgraded from Category 4 to Category 3 intensity). The formerly distinct eye had eroded, although eye re-formation occurs at the end of the animation. Once again, a comparison of microwave vs infrared imagery revealed that the well-defined eye structure was much more apparent using microwave data. Strengthening/Re-organization of Matthew in the near term will be governed by Sea Surface Temperatures (that are warm) and wind shear (shown below, from this site, that is weak).

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Diagnosed wind shear, 0900 UTC on 5 October 2016 (Click to enlarge)

Total Precipitable Water fields (from this site, using data from here), below, show abundant moisture surrounding Matthew at its present position. There is dry air over the eastern United States landmass, however.

Morphed Total Precipitable water from MIRS, 1300 UTC 4 October – 1200 UTC 5 October (Click to enlarge)

Morphed Total Precipitable water from MIRS, 1300 UTC 4 October – 1200 UTC 5 October (Click to enlarge)

During the morning and afternoon hours, the satellite presentation of Matthew began to slowly improve on GOES-13 Visible (0.63 µm) and Infrared Window (10.7 µm) imagery, below (MP4 | animated GIF), with well-defined convective bursts seen later in the day. Note: the noise seen on the 1645 UTC images was due to solar RFI.

GOES-13 0.63 µm Visible (left) and 10.7 µm Infrared Window (right) images [Click to play animation]

GOES-13 0.63 µm Visible (left) and 10.7 µm Infrared Window (right) images [Click to play animation]

Hurricane Matthew makes landfall in western Haiti, then eastern Cuba

October 4th, 2016 |

GOES-13 Visible (0.63 µm) Imagery, 1045-1245 UTC on 4 October 2016 (Click to enlarge)

Hurricane Matthew has made landfall in western Haiti. The rocking animation (click here for a straight animation) above shows the cloud-filled eye of the storm crossing the Tiburon Peninsula. The storm’s center is forecast to remain largely over water as it moves through the Windward Passage between Cuba and Hispaniola.

A closer look using a 2-panel comparison of GOES-13 Visible (0.63  µm) and Infrared Window (10.7 µm) images, below, shows the deteriorating satellite presentation following interaction with the topography of the islands. The GOES-13 satellite was in Rapid Scan Operations (RSO) mode, providing images as frequently as every 5-7 minutes.

GOES-13 0.63 µm Visible (left) and 10.7 µm Infrared Window (right) images [Click to play animation]

GOES-13 0.63 µm Visible (left) and 10.7 µm Infrared Window (right) images [Click to play animation]

NOAA-18 overflew the region around 1130 UTC while the eye was on land, and the toggle below shows Visible (0.64 µm) and Infrared Window Channel (10.8 µm) imagery from 1130 UTC. The cloud-filled eye is distinct in the infrared image at that time, but a sequence of POES AVHRR Infrared (12.0 µm) images showed the rapid deterioration shortly after landfall (as was seen in the GOES-13 images above).

NOAA-18 AVHRR Visible (0.64 µm) and Infrared (10.8 µm) Imagery, 1130 UTC on 4 October 2016 (Click to enlarge)

A toggle between 1215 UTC GOES-13 Infrared Window (10.7 µm) and 1217 UTC DMSP-18 SSMIS Microwave (85 GHz) images from the CIMSS Tropical Cyclones site, below, revealed that a well-defined eye was still evident in the microwave data.

GOES-13 Infrared Window (10.7 µm) and DMSP-18 SSMIS Microwave (85 GHz) images [Click to enlarge]

GOES-13 Infrared Window (10.7 µm) and DMSP-18 SSMIS Microwave (85 GHz) images [Click to enlarge]

Aqua overflew Matthew shortly after 1800 UTC on 4 October, and the toggle below shows the 1-km visible (0.65 µm) and the 1-km ‘Cirrus Channel’ (1.38 µm). The Cirrus Channel detects radiation at a wavelength where very strong absorption by water vapor is occurring; only high clouds are detected with this channel, and the toggle between the Cirrus Channel and the Visible nicely outlines the cirrus canopy of the storm. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on GOES-R also includes a Cirrus Channel.

Aqua MODIS Visible (0.65 µm) and

Aqua MODIS Visible (0.65 µm) and “Cirrus Channel” (1.38 µm) at 1832 UTC on 4 October 2016 [Click to enlarge]

Meanwhile, to the northeast of Matthew, in the tropical Atlantic, Tropical Storm Nicole has formed. The animation of visible imagery from GOES-13, below, shows a sheared storm; the low-level circulation is west of the deepest convection. It’s unlikely that Nicole will intensify much under such sheared conditions. Cirrus outflow from Matthew is evident at the south and west of Nicole.

GOES-13 Visible (0.63 um) images [click to play animation]

GOES-13 Visible (0.63 um) images [click to play animation]

ASCAT on METOP-A sampled both storms in its morning overpass over the western Atlantic, as shown below. The maximum scatterometer-derived wind speeds were 60 knots with Matthew and 40 knots for Julia.

GOES-13 Visible (0.63 µm) image, with Metop-AASCAT winds [Click to enlarge]

GOES-13 Visible (0.63 µm) image, with Metop-AASCAT winds [Click to enlarge]

Late in the day on 04 October, Category 4 Hurricane Mathew made a second landfall along the far eastern tip of Cuba. As seen in the image toggle below, in spite of a ragged appearance on GOES-13  Infrared Window (10.7 µm) imagery, a distinct eye was still seen using DMSP-18 SSMIS Microwave (85 GHz) data.

GOES-13 Infrared Window (10.7 µm) and DMSP-18 SSMIS Microwave (85 GHz) images [Click to enlarge]

GOES-13 Infrared Window (10.7 µm) and DMSP-18 SSMIS Microwave (85 GHz) images [Click to enlarge]

Tropical Storm Matthew in the Windward Islands

September 28th, 2016 |

Note: Matthew was upgraded to a Hurricane at 1800 UTC on 29 September. See the National Hurricane Center Website for the latest information.

GOES-13 Visible (0.63 µm) and shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm) at 6-hour intervals, 23-28 September 2016 [Click to animate]

GOES-13 Visible (0.63 µm) and shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm) at 6-hour intervals, 23-28 September 2016 [Click to animate]

The area of disturbed weather that has been moving across the tropical Atlantic for the past week, shown above in six-hour steps using visible (0.63 µm) imagery during the day and shortwave infrared (3.9 µm) imagery at night, has developed into a strong tropical storm, named Matthew, as it moves through the Windward Islands. Matthew is embedded with the rich moisture source of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, as shown in the animation below of MIRS Total Precipitable Water, taken from this source. Matthew is also heading towards a region rich in moisture — it appears that dry air should not influence Matthew’s evolution in the near term.

Morphed MIRS Total Precipitable Water, 25-28 September 2016 [Click to animate]

Morphed MIRS Total Precipitable Water, 25-28 September 2016 [Click to animate]

Matthew’s predicted course into the Caribbean is over very warm water with high heat content (below, imagery from the CIMSS Tropical Weather site). Wind shear over the storm is low, with larger values to the west; the region of high shear in advance of Matthew has been preceding the storm for the past 72 hours and it is forecast to continue its retreat from Matthew. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for slow strengthening.

Observed Sea Surface Temperatures and Oceanic Heat Content [Click to enlarge]

Observed Sea Surface Temperatures and Oceanic Heat Content [Click to enlarge]

Wind Shear, 1500 UTC on 28 September [Click to enlarge]

Wind Shear, 1500 UTC on 28 September [Click to enlarge]

Late in the afternoon on the 28th, GOES-13 detected cloud tops cooler than -80º C associated with some of the overshooting tops (the purple enhancement). Overshooting tops can be detected automatically and shown at this website.

GOES-13 Infrared (10.7 µm) imagery, 1445-2045 UTC on 28 September 2016 [Click to animate]

GOES-13 Infrared (10.7 µm) imagery, 1445-2045 UTC on 28 September 2016 [Click to animate]


============== Added, 29 September 2016 =================

Suomi NPP overflew the eastern Caribbean early on 29 September, and the Day Night Band imagery, below, (from RealEarth) shows Matthew west of the Windward Islands. A lone lightning strike is visible in the convective clouds. There appears in this very low light image to be a low-level circulation exposed to the west of the deep clouds, suggesting a sheared storm.

Suomi NPP Day Night Band Visible (0.70 µm) imagery, ~0540 UTC on 29 September 2016 [Click to enlarge]

Suomi NPP Day Night Band Visible (0.70 µm) imagery, ~0540 UTC on 29 September 2016 [Click to enlarge]

A GOES-13 Visible Image animation from just after sunrise shows a the circulation center exposed to the west of the deep convection.

GOES-13 Visible (0.63 µm) imagery, 1045-1245 UTC on 29 September 2016 [Click to enlarge]

GOES-13 Visible (0.63 µm) imagery, 1045-1245 UTC on 29 September 2016 [Click to enlarge]

NOAA-19 overflew Matthew at about 1900 UTC on 29 September 2016, shortly after the storm was upgraded to a Hurricane, and visible imagery from that pass (data courtesy of the AOML Direct Broadcast antenna) shows far less evidence of a sheared storm. The Central Dense Overcast is above the surface circulation.

NOAA-19 Visible (0.63 µm) imagery, 1931 UTC on 29 September 2016 [Click to enlarge]

NOAA-19 Visible (0.63 µm) imagery, 1931 UTC on 29 September 2016 [Click to enlarge]