Favorable orbital geometry of the Suomi NPP satellite and mostly clear skies over the Great Lakes basin allowed for a nearly complete picture of Great Lakes water temperatures from VIIRS on 10 July (in fact, all Great Lakes were viewed on two successive orbits). As has been noted elsewhere, lake water temperatures are running significantly below normal: pockets of surface water in the 30s F (darker blue color enhancement) persist in Lakes Michigan and Lake Huron, and much of Lake Superior still has surface water temperatures in the 30s to near 40°F.

Over the Lake Michigan area, high pressure with light winds in tandem with the thermal contrast between the cold waters (closer view) and the rapidly-warming land surfaces led to the generation of a well-defined lake breeze, which could be seen on GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (below; click image to play animation; also available as an MP4 movie file). Early in the animation, note the formation of a thin patch of fog/stratus over the area of colder waters in northern Lake Michigan, as southeasterly/southerly winds advected warmer air over the cold water (MODIS visible/SST image comparison). The haziness seen moving over the western portion of Lake Michigan at the end of the animation is smoke transported from wildfires in northwestern Canada (Terra MODIS AOD and trajectories)

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The storm in the animation above produced baseball-sized hail in Nebraska (Visible animation is here, courtesy Dan Lindsey from NOAA at CIRA) although MRMS Mesh Hail sizes were “only” in the 1-inch range (that is, nickel to quarter size). How did the ProbSevere product, which product includes MRMS Mesh size as a predictor, perform?

The visible and infrared satellite animation, below, shows quick development in the absence of cirrus obscuration, and the ProbSevere Satellite components from 2230 UTC are both characterized as ‘Strong’. The model components of ProbSevere (MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg, shear exceeding 30 knots) are also strong. Probabilities increased from 40% to >80% before the warnings for the cell were issued.

MRMS values in this case were not extreme; indeed, when the first warning was issued, MESH was still less than 1″ (but ProbSevere was >80%). Satellite growth rates and environmental information in this case compensated for the modest MRMS Mesh values.

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On 08 July 2014 a comparison of GOES-15 (GOES-West) and GOES-13 (GOES-East) 0.63 µm visible channel images (above; click image to play animation; also available as an MP4 movie file) showed the southward and southeastward transport of dense smoke from wildfires that were burning in the Northwestern Territories of Canada. Over the Lower 48 states, the leading edge of the smoke made it as far south as Iowa and northern Illinois. The bulk of the dense smoke was aloft, but at the surface the visibility was reduced to 3-5 miles at some locations in North Dakota.

The above example serves as a good demonstration of the principle of “forward scattering”: the smoke was more evident on visible imagery from GOES-15  early in the day (as the sun was rising), and more evident on visible imagery from GOES-13 later in the day (as the sun was setting).

Suomi NPP VIIRS true-color Red/Green/Blue (RGB) images from the SSEC RealEarth web map server (below) showed the areal coverage of the hazy pall of smoke on 06 July, 07 July, and 08 July.

The IDEA-I forward airmass trajectory model applied to targets of high Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) which were detected by the Terra MODIS instrument over Canada on 08 July are shown below. Such a tool can be used as an aid in air quality forecasting.

===== 09 July Update =====

The Terra MODIS AOD product (below; click to play animation) indicated that the leading edge of the Canadian wildfire smoke had advanced as far southward as northwestern Missouri. The bulk of the highest AOD values over the Dakotas was forecast to be transported slowly east-northeastward toward the Great Lakes region.

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Typhoon Neoguri is forecast to move west of Okinawa later today. The visible images above, from COMS-1 (left) and MTSAT-2 (right) show the storm at around 0800 UTC on 7 July 2014. A distinct eye filled with low-level clouds is apparent.

Magnified views of the storm center (above; click image to play animation; also available as an MP4 movie file) revealed the presence of mesovortices within the eye of Neoguri. The more frequent imaging schedule of COMS-1 (generally every 15 minutes, compared to every 30 minutes with MTSAT-2) allowed the cyclonic circulation of the mesovortices to be more easily identified. Another curious feature seen on the early morning visible imagery was a northwest-to-southeast oriented “cloud cliff” shadow just north of the eye, which was cast by the taller clouds of an eyewall convective burst just to the east. This same signature was seen again on the following morning, in nearly the same location relative to the eye (MTSAT-2 visible/IR image comparison).

ASCAT winds from METOP-B (above) show the structure of the typhoon, with 70-knot winds indicated. The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) image (taken from the CIMSS Tropical Cyclones site) also shows the extreme warmth of the western Pacific Ocean.

Infrared imagery from the past 24 hours show a decline in the satellite structure of the storm. Cold cloud tops have eroded from the northern and western quadrants of the storm, and a circular ring of cold cloud tops around the eye is no longer apparent.

Suomi NPP overflew the storm on Saturday 5 July at 1620 UTC. The color-enhanced VIIRS 11.45 IR image, above (courtesy William Straka, SSEC/CIMSS), shows very cold cloud tops (185 K) southeast of a developing eye.

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