CRAS

Model Analyses and Forecasts

These models fuse retrievals from satellite observations into weather forecasts:
CRAS45NA || 45AK || CRAS40HI || CRAS20US || CRAS15MW || CRAS90NA || CRAS48SP

The WRF Transition Experiment for the North Central US is ongoing.

Last updated:  Fri Jul 25 15:43:18 UTC 2014

Northern Hemisphere
  00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC
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2014-07-25
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2014-07-24
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CRAS45NA — 84-hour Forecast for North America
Assimilates GOES Sounder water vapor and clouds
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2014-07-25
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2014-07-25
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CRAS45AK — 84-hour Forecast for Alaska-North Pac
Assimilates GOES Sounder, Aqua/Terra MODIS water vapor and clouds
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2014-07-25
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2014-07-24
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CRAS40HI — 72-hour Forecast for Hawaii-Pacific Ocean
Assimilates GOES Sounder water vapor and clouds
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48-Hr Snow Plot

2014-07-25
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48-Hr Snow Plot

2014-07-24
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CRAS20US — 48-hour Forecast for United States
Assimilates GOES Sounder water vapor and clouds
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1-Hr Wisconsin

2014-07-25
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1-Hr Wisconsin

2014-07-25
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CRAS15MW — 36-hour Forecast for Midwest-Central US
Assimilates GOES Sounder water vapor and clouds
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4-Panel Charts

2014-07-25
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2014-07-24
CRAS90NA — 180-hour Forecast for North America
Southern Hemisphere
  00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC
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2014-07-25
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2014-07-24
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CRAS48SP — 72-hour Forecast for Antarctica-South Pole
Assimilates Aqua/Terra MODIS water vapor and clouds

WRF Transition Experiment
  00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC
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2014-07-25
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2014-07-25
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CRAS20MKX — 36-hour Forecast based on NWS MKX WRF domain
Assimilates GOES Sounder water vapor and clouds on GFS background
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2014-07-25
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2014-07-25
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WRF20MKX GFS — 36-hour Forecast based on NWS MKX WRF domain
Initial conditions and boundary conditions from previous (06/18Z) GFS run
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2014-07-25
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2014-07-25
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WRF20MKX CRAS — 36-hour Forecast based on NWS MKX WRF domain
Initial conditions and boundary conditions from initial hour CRAS20MKX run
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2014-07-25
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2014-07-25
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WRF20MKX CIGB — 36-hour Forecast based on NWS MKX WRF domain
Initial conditions of GFS + GOES-13 Sounder and GFS boundary conditions


CRAS AUTOMATED ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES MADISON WI
0343 PM UTC FRI JUL 25 2014

GEMPAK IMAGE GENERATION FOR THE 20140725/12Z CRAS15MW IS NOW COMPLETE.

.END

Google Earth KML Output

KML 
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CRAS/CRTMA GRIB2 Output

* Directory for CRAS45NA GRIB2 Messages on AWIPS 212 Grid
* Directory for CRAS45AK GRIB2 Messages on AWIPS 216 Grid
* Directory for CRAS40HI GRIB2 Messages on AWIPS 254 Grid Subset
* Directory for CRAS20NC GRIB2 Messages on Custom North Central US Grid
* Directory for CRTMA5GL GRIB2 Messages on Custom Great Lakes Grid

WRF Transition Experiment Verification

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* CRAS-WRF Accumulated Precipitation Differences for Recent Runs:  00Z, 12Z
    CRAS-WRF Total Precipitable Water Differences for Recent Runs:  00Z, 12Z
    CRAS-WRF Total Sky Cover Differences for Recent Runs:  00Z, 12Z
* Verification Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Recent Runs:  00Z, 12Z

WRF Transition Experiment Forecast Skew-T Comparisons

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* Comparison of 00 UTC radiosonde observation against CRAS/WRF forecasts for:
    Int'l Falls, MN,     North Platte, NE,     Springfield, MO

* Comparison of 12 UTC radiosonde observation against CRAS/WRF forecasts for:
    Int'l Falls, MN,     North Platte, NE,     Springfield, MO

These computer forecasts are EXPERIMENTAL and are used by atmospheric scientists to assess the value of satellite observations in numerical weather prediction. Although the accuracy of these products is consistently good, forecast errors can occur due to non-receipt of data, observation errors, and computer problems. The forecasts are fully automated and are not always closely monitored by CIMSS scientists. The risk of using the CRAS to plan weather-sensitive activities falls on the user. Feedback will help us improve deficiencies in the CRAS. Please forward any comments to the CRASmaster using the contact form.


About these Forecasts

The purpose of the CRAS is to test the use of satellite observations in a numerical prediction model. The quality of a numerical forecast depends on having accurate observations of the environment to define the forecast model's initial state. Here is a list of the observations that are currently used in the CRAS 12-hour spin-up forecast:
    3-layer precipitable water (mm) from the GOES-13/15 sounders
    Cloud-top pressure (hPa) and effective cloud amount (%) from the GOES-13/15 sounders
    4-layer thickness (m) from the GOES-13/15 sounders
    Cloud-top pressure (hPa) from MODIS
    Gridded hourly precipitation amounts from NCEP
    Cloud-track and water vapor winds (m/s) from the GOES-13/15 imagers
    Cloud-top pressure (hPa) and effective cloud amount (%) from the GOES-13 imager
    Surface temperature (C), dew points (C) and winds (m/s)
    Sea surface temperature (C) and sea ice coverage (%) from NCEP rtg analysis


Support for the National Weather Service

* CRAS GRIB2 Model Output in D-2D
    * NWS Area Forecast Discussions referencing CRAS
* Special Pacific Ocean Sector for Forecast Operations in American Samoa
* Archive of Forecast Synthetic IR Window Loops from Select Runs (Animated GIFs)
* BUFKIT Forecast Soundings for Select Wisconsin Locations, as well as International Falls, MN, North Platte, NE, and Springfield, MO, from Recent Runs of:  WRF20GFS, WRF20CRAS, WRF20CIGB

Numerical Weather Prediction Research at CIMSS

* 61 km CRAS Hurricane Track Prediction Project

* 60-hour Simulation of the Edmund Fitzgerald Storm

* Numerical Weather Prediction Concepts

* Land Surface Energy/Water Budget Studies

* CIMSS Convective Development Nearcasting Model (CCDNM) — GOES-East
    * Nowcasting Analysis Project using the GOES sounder
* CIMSS Convective Development Nearcasting Model (CCDNM) — GOES-West

* Publications referring to CRAS


U. Wisconsin SSEC CIMSS NESDIS CoRP NESDIS STAR
Please refer questions or comments to the CRASmaster using the contact form.

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