The Storm Prediction Center in Norman issued a Moderate Risk of severe weather over the Southern Plains on March 25, 2015. Convective products were available in AWIPS to help monitor the evolution of this event.

Cloud-Top Cooling (10.7 µm imagery) for GOES-13, 1907-2000 UTC on 25 March 2015 (click to enlarge)

For example, the Cloud-Top Cooling product, above, monitored rapid development of convection over eastern Arkansas just between 1915 and 2000 UTC (the 10.7µm imagery for about the same time is here). Cloud-Top Cooling depicts where the strongest vertical cloud growth is occurring and is most useful for the initiation of the convection (or subsequent re-energized growth). The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere product, below, can also monitor the evolution of the storm from initial growth through maturity and beyond.

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere Product, 1900-2028 UTC on 25 March 2015 (click to animate)

The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere product gauges the likelihood of a storm first producing severe weather (of any kind) in the next 60 minutes. It combines information about the environment (Most Unstable CAPE, Environmental Shear) from the Rapid Refresh Model, about the growing cloud (Vertical Growth Rate as a percentage of the troposphere per minute and Glaciation Rate, also as a percentage per minute), and Maximum Expected Hail Size (MESH) from the MRMS. The storm over east-central OK, crossing over the border of Arkansas, showed a ProbSevere value of 45% at 2004 UTC and of 87% at 2006 UTC; 1-inch hail was reported with this storm (in Roland, OK) at 2005 UTC, and a Severe Thunderstorm warning was issued at 2026 UTC. AWIPS-2 imagery that includes readouts for this storm are below.

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere product, 2000-2026 UTC on 25 March 2015 (click to animate)

Suomi NPP overflew the region shortly before convection developed, and the NUCAPS soundings in the clear pre-convective air described the thermodynamics of the environment. The location of the NUCAPS soundings are shown below, overlain on top of the Suomi NPP VIIRS visible imagery. The Red and Yellow stars show two sounding locations to be discussed. It’s helpful when using NUCAPS soundings to know surface values of temperature and dewpoint, because it can be helpful to adjust the NUCAPS soundings so that surface values are more in line with observations as reported by METARS. Accordingly, the VIIRS visible image with surface METARS plotted is here. Dewpoints in eastern OK and western AR are close to 60 F/15 C.

NUCAPS Sounding Locations at 1833 UTC on 25 March 2015; Red and Yellow Stars indicate sounding locations described below (Click to enlarge)

The soundings from the two starred sites are below. In both cases, the original sounding and a sounding that has been modified by increasing the lowest dewpoint by 2 C are shown. Most Unstable CAPE for the plotted soundings (original and modified) are indicated. NUCAPS Soundings suggest greater instability over west-central/northwest Arkansas than over southwestern Arkansas.

NUCAPS Sounding at the red star location, both original and modified (Click to enlarge)

NUCAPS Sounding at the yellow star location, both original and modified (Click to enlarge)

A short (1900-2015 UTC) GOES-13 visible image animation as the convection started is shown below. Click here for a longer animation (1300 – 2345 UTC); Click here for a faster version of the 1300-2345 UTC animation.

GOES-13 Visible 0.65 µm Imagery (Click to animate)

[Added: This severe weather outbreak caused the first tornado fatality of 2015, in Tulsa County, OK. Satellite imagery of those storms can be found here. ProbSevere product animations from 2024 to 2230 UTC on 25 March and also from 2206 UTC on 25 March to 0012 UTC on 26 March are shown below]

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere product, 2024-2230 UTC on 25 March 2015 (click to animate)

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere product, 2206 UTC on 25 March 2015 to 0012 UTC on 26 March 2015 (click to animate)

View only this post Read Less

Himawari-8 6.2 µm infrared water vapor channel images (click to play animation)

Full-resolution animations of Himawari-8 6.2 µm water vapor imagery suggest what a gamechanger Himawari-8 data is, and what a gamechanger GOES-R data will be. Full-disk imagery at every 10 minutes, and at 2-km resolution, means atmospheric motion vectors computed from water vapor imagery (or other channels, such as the 10.35 µm) will cover a larger area and be far more accurate than with present GOES (or MTSAT).

In addition, because there are multiple water vapor channels on Himawari-8 (as will be on GOES-R), water vapor at different levels in the atmosphere can be tracked easily. In the animation below, low-level cloud streets between Japan and the large storm over the northern Pacific are clearly evident, whereas they are shielded from view in the animation above by high-level cirrus — although their presence is evident once they emerge from under the cirrus. Weighting Functions for two similar channels on the GOES Sounder (from here) show that the shorter-wavelength 6.2µm channel will have a larger response to upper level moisture; the longer-wavelength 7.3 µm channel will have a larger response to lower level moisture. Interactions with land features that are evident in the 7.3 µm imagery below do not show up in the 6.2 µm imagery above because most of the signal at 6.2µm is emitted from the upper troposphere. Combining the three water vapor channels (there is also a 6.9 µm channel, not shown here) gives an excellent three-dimensional representation of water vapor in the atmosphere at high temporal resolution.

Himawari-8 7.3 µm infrared water vapor channel images (click to play animation)

View only this post Read Less

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm infrared channel images (click to enlarge)

The ongoing change in seasons was accompanied last night by a round of convection over the Missouri River Valley. Suomi NPP 11.45 µm imagery from overnight shows scattered convection over Kansas, Missouri and Iowa at 0728 and 0909 UTC. Coldest cloud tops are around -65 C. The Day-Night band showed lightning streaks at both times as well, over east-central Kansas at 0728 and north-central Kansas 0909 UTC.

Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.70 µm Day-Night band visible channel images (click to enlarge)

GOES Sounder DPI Lifted Index, times as indicated (click to enlarge)

The GOES Sounder showed the unstable air that was feeding into this convection. Imagery at three-hourly intervals, above, shows values between 0 and -4 persisting over the central Plains. Plots of 850-mb data on top of the GOES Sounder DPI Lifted index, below, shows the development of strong warm advection over the central Plains that helped feed moisture into the developing convection.

GOES Sounder DPI Lifted Index and Radiosonde data at 850 hPa (click to enlarge)

NUCAPS soundings, created from both CrIS and ATMS data on board Suomi NPP, below, showed steepening mid-level lapse rates over/near Kansas. This convection likely was not surface-based.

Suomi/NPP NUCAPS Soundings near Kansas City (07z) and over Eastern Kansas (09z) with an individual sounding from the starred point plotted (click to enlarge)

View only this post Read Less

GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

GOES-13 (GOES-East) 0.63 µm visible channel images (above; click to play animation) showed a patch of sea fog just off the coast of northeastern Florida on 21 March 2015. As daytime inland heating increased, a sea breeze circulation began to draw some of the offshore sea fog toward the coast.

A closer view is provided by a Suomi NPP VIIRS true-color Red/Green/Blue (RGB) image at 18:08 UTC (below), visualized using the SSEC RealEarth web map server site. The surface visibility at New Smyrna Beach was reduced to 1 mile at the time.

Suomi NPP VIIRS true-color image

A web camera image at 18:17 UTC or 2:17 PM local time (below) showed the dramatic reduction in visibility as the dense sea fog moved inland at Dunlawton Beach (near Daytona Beach).

Dunlawton Beach webcam image

A comparison of Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.64 µm visible channel, 3.74 µm shortwave IR channel, and 11.45 µm longwave IR images (below) showed that the patch of sea fog exhibited a strong signal on the shortwave IR image (due to the efficient reflection of incoming solar radiation by the spherical water droplets), but no signal at all on the longwave IR image (since the temperature of the sea fog feature was nearly identical to that of the surrounding ocean waters).

Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.64 µm visible channel, 3.74 µm shortwave IR channel, and 11.45 µm longwaveIR channel images

The easterly to northeasterly onshore flow along the coast (enhanced by the sea breeze circulation) was well-depicted by the 18 UTC Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) surface winds (below).

Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.64 µm visible channel image, with RTMA surface winds

View only this post Read Less