As a strong arctic cold front moved southward across the Gulf of Mexico toward southern Mexico on 04-05 February 2026, the cold front fractured as it moved inland across Mexico’s Isthmus of Tehuantepec — the cold air was then channeled southward through Chivela Pass and emerged as a Tehuano (or “Tehuantepecer“) gap wind that eventually fanned outward across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and adjacent Pacific Ocean. 10-minute Full Disk scan GOES-19 (GOES-East) Near-Infrared images (above) showed the hazy plume of dust that was being transported offshore — along with a narrow arc cloud that marked the edges of this Tehuano flow.

The pulse of Tehuano winds emerging southward across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the adjacent Pacific Ocean was seen in ASCAT winds (source) from Metop-B and Metop-C (below).

The highest Metop-B wind speed was 40 kts (below).

At the leading (southern) edge of the Tehuano flow, a ship reported NE winds gusting to 35 kts at 1800 UTC (below).

The broad plume of dust lofted by Tehuano winds was apparent in True Color RGB images (source) from both GOES-18 and GOES-19 (below).

A relatively narrow smoke plume was seen near the middle of the broad dust plume — and a closer look using 5-minute CONUS Sector GOES-19 GeoColor RGB images with Next Generation Fire System (NGFS) Fire Detection polygons (below) showed the larger/hotter wildfire that was responsible for producing this smoke plume.

Just south of the Pacific coast of Mexico, wind-driven significant wave height values derived from SWOT were as high as 9.55 ft at 2321 UTC (below).

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GOES-19 (GOES-East) SUVI images from the SSEC Geostationary Satellite Imagery site (above) displayed a brief but strong solar flare that occurred on 04 February 2026.

A bulletin issued by the Space Weather Prediction Center (below) classified the X-class flare’s intensity as X4.2.

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A deepening circulation north of Palau in the western Pacific is projected to intensify into a tropical storm between 3 and 4 February 2026. This system is currently (as of 1600 UTC on 3 Feb 2026) labeled as Invest 94W, but analysis from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects intensification into a tropical cyclone. A closer look at satellite products can help inform the discussion of what will happen next. Infrared satellite imagery from Himawari-9’s Advanced Himawai Imager reveals a largely asymmetric circulation between Palau and the Micronesian island of Yap.

It can be hard to identify the center of circulation given upper level divergent flow is at times obscuring the lower level flow. Scatterometry can help clear up the confusion by providing a more easily-discernible view of the ocean surface-level winds. Unfortunately, the center of circulation has slipped through the gaps of the most recent ASCAT overpasses, so the broader but noisier OSCAT-3 winds have to be used instead. Winds appear to be on the order of 30-40 kts at the heart of the circulation.

Of course, warm sea surface temperatures are an important factor in tropical cyclone development. The NOAA Geo-Polar blended SST product is a valuable resource for this. Here, the area surrounding the invest has been circled to aid in location. SSTs are between 28-32 C (82 -90 F) so a substantial amount of latent heat is available for the developing system to access.

Larges amounts of water vapor are present in the atmosphere as well, as seen in the CIMSS MIMIC-TPW2 product. The invest is found between 130 and40 degrees E at 10 degrees N. These satellite-derived total precipitable water values are approaching 70 mm.

The CIMSS Environmental Steering product calculates mean winds over various layers through analysis of satellite-observed motion. For an as-yet weaker system like Invest 94W, the 700-850 hPa mean layer can provide useful insight (stronger cyclones use deeper layers). Here, the steering flow suggests that the system will propagate westward toward the Philippines as time progresses.

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48 hours of 5-minute CONUS Sector GOES-19 (GOES-East) Water Vapor images that included hourly plots of surface weather type (above) showed the development of a winter storm that produced up to 19.5″ of snowfall and wind gusts as high as 64 mph in eastern North Carolina (storm summary) — and even some light snow in far northern Florida — from 30 January to 01 February 2026.

A GOES-19 Mesoscale Domain Sector provided 1-minute imagery of this winter storm — and a closer view centered over eastern North Carolina using Water Vapor and Infrared imagery (below) depicted the formation of west-to-east oriented mesoscale cloud bands which enhanced snowfall rates as they moved northward across eastern North Carolina to southeastern Virginia.

As clouds cleared after the storm moved offshore, GOES-19 True Color RGB images from the CSPP GeoSphere site (below) showed that some of the fresh snow cover across Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina began to melt during the day on 01 February.

As the low pressure system moved off the US East Coast and rapidly intensified to Hurricane Force, hazy areas seen in GOES-19 True Color RGB images (below) represented enhanced solar reflection off of high waves and sea spray (where strong surface winds were present to the east and southeast of the low center, behind its cold front).

GOES-19 Visible images with plots of Derived Motion Winds (DMW) (below) depicted a large swath of DMW speeds >50 kts (yellow) east and southeast of the Hurricane Force low center. GLM Flash Extent Density also showed that lightning activity was associated with areas of convection near and northeast of the low center.

DMW speeds were as high as 82 kts in the region of the hazy signature east of the low  pressure center (below).

Altimeter significant wave height values east of the Hurricane Force low were as high as 46.13 ft derived from SWOT at 2130 UTC and 50.47 ft derived from AltiKa at 2239 UTC on 01 February (below).

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