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Assessing stability before and during a tornadic outbreak

SPC (The Storm Prediction Center) issued a Convective Outlooks on 5 March 2022 (1630 UTC; 2000 UTC) showing an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather over portions of southern Iowa. Preliminary Storm Reports for the day (link) showed tornadoes south of a line from southwestern Iowa to near Des Moines, starting near 2100 UTC. The... Read More

GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB and Derived Lifted Index (in clear skies), 1906 – 2221 UTC, 5 March 2022 (Click to enlarge)

SPC (The Storm Prediction Center) issued a Convective Outlooks on 5 March 2022 (1630 UTC; 2000 UTC) showing an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather over portions of southern Iowa. Preliminary Storm Reports for the day (link) showed tornadoes south of a line from southwestern Iowa to near Des Moines, starting near 2100 UTC. The animation above shows the Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB and the derive Lifted Index as very strong convection (ultimately tornadic) develops over southwestern Iowa in a region where Lifted Index values are near -4.

NOAA-20 overflew the region of convective initiation at around 1930 UTC. Mid-tropospheric lapse rates (700-500 mb) are below. The stability diagnosis shows an unstable atmosphere. A diagnosis of the Total Totals index shows very large values — >50 — over southwestern Iowa and eastern Kansas. Convection in this airmass is likely to be strong.

700-500 mb Lapse Rates derived from gridded NUCAPS profiles, 1930 UTC on 5 March 2022; NUCAPS Sounding Availability points are also shown (click to enlarge)
Total Totals index derived from gridded NUCAPS fields, 1954 UTC on 5 March 2022 (click to enlarge)

The instability over eastern Kansas was also measured with a special radionsonde launch from Topeka at 2000 UTC, and that radiosonde is compared to a NUCAPS profile (close to Topeka in space and in time) below. Some aspects of the two profiles are similar.

Radiosonde at Topeka KS, 2000 UTC on 5 March 2022 (left) and nearby NUCAPS profiles (right) (Click to enlarge)

What do other NUCAPS profiles look like over Iowa? The image below shows NUCAPS sounding availability points, and also 3 profiles at the points indicated. Steepest mid-tropospheric lapse rates are in the southern part of the domain. Recall that tornadoes were south of a line from the southwest corner of Iowa to Des Moines.

NUCAPS profiles at select locations over western Iowa, 1955 UTC on 5 March 2022 (Click to enlarge)

Legacy Atmospheric Profile points at 2051 UTC on 5 March 2022, with one profile indicated (Click to enlarge)

Legacy Atmospheric Profiles from GOES-16 are available at points, and a benefit is that they are produced every 30 minutes, so that changes in atmospheric stability with time can be monitored. (This profiling capability will be greatly enhanced with the sounder instrument scheduled to fly on GEO-XO). The single profile above documents a very steep mid-tropospheric lapse rate just to the south of Des Moines. That same profile (2051 UTC) and one at the same point 30 minutes later (2121 UTC) are shown below.

Atmospheric profiles south of Des Moines, 2051 and 2121 UTC on 5 March 2022 (click to enlarge)

AWIPS imagery in this blog post was created using the NOAA/NESDIS TOWR-S AWIPS Cloud Instance.

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Cold Lake Michigan

Fancy a swim in Lake Michigan today? Mostly clear skies early in the morning of 4 March allowed for a near-complete NOAA-20 VIIRS estimate of Lake Surface Temperatures, as shown above. The warmest surface waters were near 39oF. AWIPS-ready tiles of ACSPO fields are available from CIMSS. The image below... Read More

ACSPO SSTs from NOAA-20 VIIRS data, 0703 UTC on 4 March 2022 (Click to enlarge)

Fancy a swim in Lake Michigan today? Mostly clear skies early in the morning of 4 March allowed for a near-complete NOAA-20 VIIRS estimate of Lake Surface Temperatures, as shown above. The warmest surface waters were near 39oF. AWIPS-ready tiles of ACSPO fields are available from CIMSS. The image below (from which the AWIPS tiles used above were subsected) shows the large geographic region available from the CIMSS direct broadcast. (Here is direct link to direct broadcast directory — available for about 6 days — containing VIIRS imagery from this pass).

NOAA-20 ACSPO SSTs, 0703 UTC on 4 March 2022 (Click to enlarge)

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Creating a VIIRS brightness temperature difference field from direct broadcast data using McIDAS-V

This blog post contains Suomi-NPP VIIRS imagery that was derived (using CSPP) from data downloaded at the Direct Broadcast site at CIMSS. That blog post suggests the need of a brightness temperature difference field from the I04 and I05 data that can be found in this (https://ftp.ssec.wisc.edu/pub/eosdb/npp/viirs/2022_03_03_062_0632/sdr) direct broadcast directory (direct link,... Read More

This blog post contains Suomi-NPP VIIRS imagery that was derived (using CSPP) from data downloaded at the Direct Broadcast site at CIMSS. That blog post suggests the need of a brightness temperature difference field from the I04 and I05 data that can be found in this (https://ftp.ssec.wisc.edu/pub/eosdb/npp/viirs/2022_03_03_062_0632/sdr) direct broadcast directory (direct link, available for about 6 days). The Sensor Data Record directory includes I04 and I05 hdf5 granules that McIDAS-V can read: SVI04_npp_d20220303_t0641201_e0642443_b53613_c20220303071038095682_cspp_dev.h5 and SVI05_npp_d20220303_t0641201_e0642443_b53613_c20220303071039605225_cspp_dev.h5 ; determining exactly which granule you want — there are 10 different granules in this particular directory — is partly trial and error and partly viewing the orbit path (here) and choosing wisely. Save those files into a directory; also save the ‘GITCO’ files (that is: GITCO_npp_d20220303_t0641201_e0642443_b53613_c20220303070838040363_cspp_dev.h5) that contain georeferencing for the Imager (‘I’) bands (similarly, GMTCO files contain georeferencing for the Moderate-resolution ‘M’ bands).

McIDAS-V Data Source load window

After starting up McIDAS-V, you want to load the data. Note above that I’ve clicked on JPSS Imagery, and navigated to the directory containing the downloaded data (that directory also includes the GITCO files for those granules, but you don’t see them here). I’ve chosen both I04 and I05 data files from one granule, observed from 06:41:20.1 to 06:42:44.3. Click on ‘Add Source’ in the lower right corner of the window. If you then expand ‘IMAGE’ under ‘Fields’, you’ll see both I04 and I05 Brightness Temperatures.

McIDAS-V Field Selector window

Next, under the ‘Data Sources:’ tab, click on ‘Formulas’. You will see a ‘Miscellaneous’ tab, and under that tab, a ‘Simple Difference a-b’ choice. Choose that and click ‘Create Display’ — this will pop up a window in which you can choose the a (in this case, I05 Brightness Temperature) and b (for this case, I04 Brightness Temperature). Subsect the portion of the granule that you want to display using shift-left click and drag — and — after clicking ‘create image’ — you end up with the image below (zoomed in).

Created I05 – I04 field over portions of central Florida (Click to enlarge)

There is some fine-tuning yet to do. Under the ‘Legend’ in the image above, right-click on ‘VIIRS 2022-03-03…’ to bring up the Control Window shown below. Slide the ‘Texture Quality’ from ‘Medium’ to ‘High’ (if you have a large image — much larger than this one! — that will test your machine’s RAM!)

Layer Controls Window in McIDAS-V

Similarly, if you right-click (again!) under ‘Legend’ and ‘VIIRS 2022-03-03…’ to ‘Edit->Properties’, you can change the Layer Label to include more information, which I did, as shown in the image below. Finally, I edited the color table to highlight positive values (that is, where I05 – I04 Brightness Temperature Difference is between 0 and 2o C) that might show where stratiform clouds are present. That result is shown below. Yellow in the enhancement shows no difference between the fields, blue is a brightness temperature difference of 2o C. Are you obtaining a good signal of fog in the region of the very dense fog over southern Volusia County? I’d only ask what a ‘good signal’ is!

McIDAS-V display, I05-I04, 0641 UTC on 3 March 2022 (click to enlarge)

Imagery in this post was created using v1.8 of McIDAS-V (downloadable here). You can find further documentation on this here.

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Fires across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley

GOES-16 (GOES-East) Shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm), Fire Temperature RGB. Fire Power, Fire Temperature and Fire Area products (above) displayed signatures of widespread prescribed and/or agriculture fires across parts of the Southern Plans and Lower Mississippi Valley on 03 March 2022. The Fire Power, Fire Temperature and Fire Area derived products are components of... Read More

GOES-16 Shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm), Fire Temperature RGB. Fire Power, Fire Temperature and Fire Area products [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

GOES-16 (GOES-East) Shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm), Fire Temperature RGB. Fire Power, Fire Temperature and Fire Area products (above) displayed signatures of widespread prescribed and/or agriculture fires across parts of the Southern Plans and Lower Mississippi Valley on 03 March 2022. The Fire Power, Fire Temperature and Fire Area derived products are components of the GOES Fire Detection and Characterization Algorithm FDCA; Fire Temperature values were as high as 2300 K, with Fire Power values reaching 220 MW for some of the hottest fires.

Even though the majority of these fires were relatively brief and rather small in areal coverage, many produced notable smoke plumes — which were highlighted by GOES-16 True Color RGB images created using Geo2Grid (below). This smoke reduced the surface visibility to 7-9 miles at a few locations, but one site in southern Missouri reported a visibility as low as 3/4 mile.

GOES-16 True Color RGB images [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

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