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Detection of a prescribed burn near Flagstaff, Arizona using GOES-18 and GOES-19: NGFS vs FDCA

By Scott Bachmeier •

The Campbell Mesa prescribed burn occurred just east of Flagstaff, Arizona on 09 April 2025. Given that this location is approximately midway between the views of GOES-18 (GOES-West, with a satellite zenith angle for Flagstaff of 48.72 degrees) and GOES-19 (GOES-East, with a satellite zenith angle for Flagstaff of 56.13 degrees), this fire served as a good opportunity to compare detection using the Next Generation Fire System (NGFS) and the currently-operational Fire Detection and Characterization Algorithm (FDCA).

GOES-18 (GOES-West) GeoColor RGB images with an overlay of NGFS fire detection polygons, from 1701 UTC on 09 April to 0101 UTC on 10 April [click to play MP4 animation]

Beginning with GOES-18/GOES-West NGFS imagery (above), the initial detection of a thermal anomaly for this prescribed burn occurred at 1726 UTC — with the maximum Feature Fire Radiative Power (674.67 MW) and Pixel 3.9 µm Temperature (174 ºF) being detected 4.8 hours later at 2216 UTC. With the corresponding GOES-19/GOES-East NGFS imagery (below), the initial detection of a thermal anomaly for this prescribed burn occurred at 1806 UTC — with the maximum Feature Fire Radiative Power (623.83 MW) and Pixel 3.9 µm Temperature (163 ºF) being detected 4.2 hours later at 2216 UTC. This fire produced a rather dense smoke plume, which drifted over parts of Interstate 40 east of Flagstaff.

GOES-19 (GOES-East) GeoColor RGB images with an overlay of NGFS fire detection polygons, from 1701 UTC on 09 April to 0101 UTC on 10 April [click to play MP4 animation]

Now taking a look at fire detection using the FDCA Fire Mask from GOES-18/GOES-West and GOES-19/GOES-East (below), the initial detection from GOES-19 was at 1806 UTC (in agreement with the NGFS initial detection) — but the initial detection from GOES-18 was not until 2156 UTC (nearly 4 hours later!). South/southwest winds at Flagstaff (KFLG) occasionally gusted to 20-23 kts, which may have played a role in fire’s longevity and dense smoke production.

Visible (0.64 µm) images with an overlay of the FDCA Fire Mask derived product from GOES-18 (left) and GOES-19 (right), from 1656 UTC on 09 April to 0031 UTC on 10 April; Interstate highways are plotted in magenta [click to play MP4 animation]

Was the large discrepancy between GOES-18 and GOES-19 FDCA initial detection times due to terrain effects? Looking at images of Topography with an overlay of the GOES-18/GOES-19 FDCA Fire Mask (below), the answer is probably not — and we can’t separate that from where the GOES detector samples actually fall on the fire. What we do know is that the NGFS is more sensitive than the FDCA, which is by design, and we see that demonstrated in this case (with the much earlier GOES-18 initial detection).

Topography images with an overlay of FDCA Fire Mask pixels at 2156 UTC on 09 April, from GOES-18 (left) and GOES-19 (right); Interstate highways are plotted in magenta [click to enlarge]

Categories: Fire detection, GOES-18, GOES-19, NGFS, Red-Green-Blue (RGB) images