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The Evolution of a Wisconsin Winter

Spring has clearly sprung in the blog’s home base of Madison, Wisconsin, in the upper midwestern United States, with air temperatures and the activity of both animals (like migratory birds) and people (like joggers) showing that the winter of 2024-2025 is no more. The memories of the cold, icy conditions... Read More

Spring has clearly sprung in the blog’s home base of Madison, Wisconsin, in the upper midwestern United States, with air temperatures and the activity of both animals (like migratory birds) and people (like joggers) showing that the winter of 2024-2025 is no more. The memories of the cold, icy conditions of just a few weeks ago are slowly receding into the past.

Perhaps the most identifiable and important characteristic of Madison is its position within the chain of lakes along the Yahara River. These glacial lakes, remnants of the last great ice age 15000 years ago, dominate the culture and activity of the community. The central city and the state capitol are built on the isthmus between the two largest lakes, Mendota and Monona, while numerous parks, terraces, and civic structures dot the shores. The study of limnology (the science of inland bodies of water) had many of its formative developments at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, and today Lake Mendota (at 39 square miles or 101 square km) is considered the most scientifically studied lake in the entire world.

Satellites enable us to monitor how the city and its lakes were impacted by the winter. The Wisconsin State Climatology office maintains a list of lake freezing and thawing dates that stretches back continuously to the 1850s. This year, the office noted two distinct stretches of freezing for Lake Mendota, one from 25 to 27 December, and another from 7 January to 15 March. Through the combination of the very-high resolution observations from the Sentinel-2 series of surface-observing satellites and the coarser but more temporally frequent observations from the VIIRS instruments aboard the SNPP series of satellites, it’s possible to monitor how these vital freshwater ecosystems evolved over the course of the winter.

Compare these two images taken exactly one month apart (8 November vs. 8 December). One challenging aspect of working with Sentinel-2 data is that the very high spatial resolution comes at the expense of swath width, so overpasses of a particular location only occur every few days, and if there are clouds in the way at the time there’s nothing to be done but wait until the next opportunity. Still, this provides us an important view of the evolution of the lake ice. On 1 November, the lakes are entirely ice free, but freezing is clearly starting to occur in the bays, inlets, and shores. Still, the lakes are largely ice free.

What a difference five days make! It’s now 13 December and smaller and shallower lakes are frozen while ice continues to build along the edges of the larger lakes. There’s even some evidence of ice structures starting to develop in the middle of Mendota and Monona as well. Given the constant cloudiness of the upper midwest during winter, it is a while until the next clear sky view, but one finally arrives in mid-January.

This view, from 17 January, depicts a somewhat unusual sight for Madison: frozen lakes but no surrounding snow. It was usually cold enough for snow to fall, it was just an unusually dry winter. Data from the Wisconsin State Climatology Office show that less than half the normal snowfall up to that point in the winter had actually fallen, with approximately half of the total snowfall up to that point occurring on a single day, 19 December. Remember, the lakes had thawed after 27 December, so whatever snow had fallen during that event had long since melted before this overpass.

A satellite view from approximately one month after the previous one, however, shows that things have changed immensely. Madison was blanketed with 3.6 inches of snow on the 12 February and received another 3.4 inches as a Valentine’s Day present on the 14th. This stunning view from 21 February shows the contrast between the urban texture of the city of Madison and its suburbs, the featureless snow cover of the lakes, and the relatively flat terrain of the agricultural regions to the northeast and northwest.

This next view, on 8 March, shows the interesting phenomenon where there’s fresh snow on the ice but not on the land. Ice has a much higher specific heat capacity than soil, meaning that applying the same amount of energy to an equal mass of ice and soil will cause the soil to experience a much larger temperature increase. When 1.2 inches of snow fell on 5 March and another 0.4 inches fell on 7 March, the city and surrounding countryside was enough to melt this snow as it fell. However, the lakes were cold enough to prevent the snow that fell on them to melt. The resulting image shows stark white lakes set against the typical early-spring coloration of urban and rural Wisconsin. However, looking closely at this image shows that the lakes are already starting to melt: there are regions where open water is clearly visible.

Just a few days later, on 13 March, the melting has accelerated. The snow is gone from the ice while the the ice itself has clearly thinned. It won’t be long now before the lakes resume their liquid phase entirely. Smaller lakes like Lake Wingra (due south of Lake Mendota) had snow cover in the previous image but are now clearly water. And in fact, this final view from earlier this week (on 25 March) confirms the melt to be complete:

VIIRS can also be used to look at the evolution of the lakes over the course of the winter. The spatial resolution is not as fine as on Sentinel-2, but the wider swaths ensure daily coverage. The VIIRS Today site operated by SSEC allows for quicklooks of VIIRS overpasses. These images were used to create an animation of the Madison-area lakes from 1 March to 20 March 2025 as seen from VIIRS on NOAA-20. Thanks to a remarkably cloud-free stretch of early March, the evolution of the ice cover is easy to follow.

Here, you can see that at the start of March the lakes were still ice covered, that they emerged with a fresh cover of snow after clouds passed overhead, and that they rapidly melted over the course of just a few days. It’s an annual cycle of life in Madison, and while the ice fishers and skaters may be disappointed that they have to put away their hobbies for several months, the canoers and sailors cannot wait to get back out on the water.

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Fast-moving wildfires produce pyrocumulonimbus clouds over South Korea

2.5-minute JMA Himawari-9 “Red” Visible (0.64 µm), Shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm) and “Clean” Infrared Window (10.4 µm) images (above) showed the formation of 3 pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds that were spawned by a wildfire complex in the eastern part of South Korea on 25 March 2025. The pyroCbs exhibited cloud-top 10.4... Read More

2.5 minute JMA Himawari-9 “Red” Visible (0.64 µm, top), Shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm, center) and “Clean” Infrared Window (10.4 µm, bottom) images, from 0200-1047 UTC on 25 March [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

2.5-minute JMA Himawari-9 “Red” Visible (0.64 µm), Shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm) and “Clean” Infrared Window (10.4 µm) images (above) showed the formation of 3 pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds that were spawned by a wildfire complex in the eastern part of South Korea on 25 March 2025. The pyroCbs exhibited cloud-top 10.4 µm infrared brightness temperatures (IRBTs) in the -40s C (denoted by shades of blue to cyan), a necessary condition to be classified as a pyroCb. The first 2 small, brief pyroCb pulses formed at 0832 UTC and 0840 UTC, with the largest and more long-lived pyroCb developing at 0842 UTC. These were the first pyroCb clouds to be documented in South Korea.

2.5-minute JMA Himawari-9 Shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm) images, from 0300-1402 UTC on 25 March [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

2.5-minute Himawari-9 Shortwave Infrared images (above) showed that the wind-driven wildfire complex made a rapid eastward run beginning around 0700 UTC, reaching the coast shortly after 1200 UTC. These fires burned more than 111000 acres, making it South Korea’s largest wildfire event on record. At least 28 fatalities have been reported.

A toggle between surface analyses at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC (below) indicated that a low pressure system had moved from northeastern China to the Yellow Sea — and tightly spaced isobars behind the low across the Korean Peninsula at 1200 UTC supported the presence of strong winds that were responsible for the rapid eastward run of the wildfire complex that produced the pyroCb clouds. As the cold front associated with this low pressure passed Cheongju Air Base (RKTU, located west-northwest of the fires) there was a wind gust to 43 kts (49 mph) at 0606 UTC — while at Daegu (RKTN, located south of the fires) there was a wind gust to 30 kts (35 mph) at 0900 UTC.

Surface analyses at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC on 25 March

10-minute Himawari-9 True Color RGB images created using Geo2Grid (below) also revealed the hazy signature of Asian blowing dust that was streaming eastward across the Korean Peninsula — including a SW-to-NE oriented band of dense airborne dust focused along the aforementioned cold front (0700 UTC image). The pyroCb cloud was just crossing the coast of Korea at 0900 UTC.

10-minute JMA Himawari-9 True Color RGB images, from 0000-0910 UTC on 25 March [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

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1-minute GOES-18 images to monitor heavy rainfall potential across American Samoa

Due to a lack of radar coverage over American Samoa, WSO Pago Pago requested 1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector coverage over the islands during a period of heavy rainfall risk. GOES-18 (GOES-West) Clean Infrared Window (10.3 µm) images (above) displayed showers and thunderstorms that moved across the American Samoa island of Tutuila (where Pago Pago... Read More

1-minute GOES-18 Clean Infrared Window (10.3 µm) images with an overlay of GLM Flash Points, from 1901 UTC on 24 March to 0400 UTC on 25 March [click to play MP4 animation]

Due to a lack of radar coverage over American Samoa, WSO Pago Pago requested 1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector coverage over the islands during a period of heavy rainfall risk. GOES-18 (GOES-West) Clean Infrared Window (10.3 µm) images (above) displayed showers and thunderstorms that moved across the American Samoa island of Tutuila (where Pago Pago International Airport NSTU is located) on 24 March 2025 — which produced periods of moderate to heavy rainfall (leading to flash flooding and landslides, prompting the issuance of a Flash Flood Warning; there were local storm reports of up to 4.5″ of rainfall in 3 hours). The coldest cloud-top infrared brightness temperature associated with these thunderstorms was -86ºC (brighter shades of white embedded within dark black regions).

A listing of Pago Pago surface observations is shown below — highlighting the time period displayed by the 1-minute GOES-18 imagery (during which NSTU received 3.72″ of rainfall in 3 hours). Local time in American Samoa is 11 hours behind UTC.

Surface observations from Pago Pago, American Samoa (NSTU) — the red box highlights the time period covered by the 1-minute GOES-18 imagery [click to enlarge]

Around the time of onset of the thunderstorms that moved across the island of Tutuila, nearby satellite-derived Total Precipitable Water values were as high as 2.39 in (below). This thunderstorm development was focused along a west-to-east oriented surface trough (Fiji Meteorological Service surface analyses: 2100 UTC | 0000 UTC | 0300 UTC).

GOES-18 Clean Infrared Window (10.3 µm) image with an overlay of the Total Precipitable Water derived product and GLM Flash Points at 2206 UTC on 24 March [click to enlarge]


The heavy rains that occurred were within a large region of atmospheric moisture as shown in the MIMIC TPW animation below of Total Precipitable Water. MIIMIC TPW values started decreasing around 0900 UTC on 25 March 2025.

MIMIC estimates of Total Precipitable Water 0000 UTC 23 March 2025 – 2000 UTC 25 March 2025 (Click to enlarge)

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You can use GOES-R Soundings to mitigate the loss of conventional radiosondes

Staffing issues at a number of WFOs has lately meant gaps in the launching of soundings, either at 0000 UTC or at 1200 UTC. Satellite profiles derived from the GFS model and nudged towards ABI observations are available in AWIPS, and these products can fill in some of that missing... Read More

Staffing issues at a number of WFOs has lately meant gaps in the launching of soundings, either at 0000 UTC or at 1200 UTC. Satellite profiles derived from the GFS model and nudged towards ABI observations are available in AWIPS, and these products can fill in some of that missing information. (This training video will show where the products are in the AWIPS menu — scroll forward to 5 mins 25 seconds). The image below shows the Legacy Atmospheric Profile (LAP) display in AWIPS for a single time, with points that will have — every 30 minutes — a vertical profile of temperature and moisture if clouds are not present. (Click here to see an animation that demonstrates how clouds affect the distribution of valid points with clear sky products).

GOES-16 Legacy Atmospheric Profiles, 1351 UTC at 24 March 2025 (Click to enlarge)

The point highlighted in central Oklahoma is close to a launch site at Norman. The 0000 and 1200 UTC soundings from KOUN are shown below. There is considerable drying aloft between the two times and, of course, low-level cooling.

Upper Air Sounding, KOUN, 0000 and 1200 UTC on 24 March 2025 (Click to enlarge)

What do the Legacy Profiles show for this span of time? That’s shown in the animation below. The profiles are much smoother than you observe with radisondes, and thin layers of moisture (or dryness) that could be synoptically important are not well-resolved. However, the profiles capture the overall evolution of the atmosphere. A strength of LAP data is monitoring changes, and the edges of gradients. Those gradients might be a lot easier to view by loading Derived Stability Indices (CAPE, Lifted Index, etc) and Total Precipitable Water fields that are derived from the LAP data. (AWIPS note: I’ve been unable to get pop-up SkewTs to work with LAP data. Maybe that’s just my AWIPS however).

Half-hourly profiles of temperature and moisture, 1121 UTC 23 March through 1151 UTC 24 March 2025. (Click to enlarge) Missing times occur when clouds move over 35.3 N, 97.5 W.

The following two toggles directly compare the 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC KOUN soundings with the closest-in-time profiles. There are similarities between the two profiles.

0000 UTC/24 March 2025 sounding at KOUN, and nearby 2151 UTC/23 March 2025 LAPS Profile (Click to enlarge)
1200 UTC soundings at KOUN, and nearby 1151 UTC LAPS Profile on 24 March 2025 (Click to enlarge)

Of course, if you have clouds (or even if you don’t!), you could also look at NUCAPS profiles that incorporate microwave imagery, albeit at coarser temporal resolutions. On this day, the NOAA overpass occurred in clear skies. The image below shows NUCAPS profiles overlain with LAP data (plotted in coral) at about the same time, and also GOES-East band 13 imagery to approximate the cloud cover.

GOES-16 Band 13 (Clean window infrared, 10.3) imagery, 0821 UTC on 24 March 2025 along with LAP Profiles (in coral) and NUCAPS profiles (green and yellow) at approximately the same time. (Click to enlarge)

The Slider Juxtapose below compares somewhat-adjacent NUCAPS and LAP thermodynamic data at 0852 UTC on 24 March. (click here for a toggle).


These profiles do not include winds. A substitute for the winds could be from ACARS data.

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