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Rapid ice growth in Lake Erie

GOES-16 (GOES-East) “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) images (above) showed the widespread coverage of ice across Lake Erie on 31 January 2022. Surface winds were generally light across the region, minimizing wind stress on the pack ice. A careful inspection of the imagery revealed some straight pathways cut through the ice by US... Read More

GOES-16 “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) images, with surface wind barbs (knots) plotted in cyan [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

GOES-16 (GOES-East) “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) images (above) showed the widespread coverage of ice across Lake Erie on 31 January 2022. Surface winds were generally light across the region, minimizing wind stress on the pack ice. A careful inspection of the imagery revealed some straight pathways cut through the ice by US Coast Guard icebreakers.

An Aqua MODIS True Color RGB image from the MODIS Today site (below) provided a higher-resolution view of the linear icebreaker paths in the western portion of the lake (where the ice was generally thicker).

Aqua MODIS True Color RGB image [click to enlarge]

The entire icebreaker channel was apparently completed sometime before sunrise on 31 January — the western portion was evident in a Sentinel-1A Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Normalized Radar Cross Section (NRCS) image (source) at 2324 UTC on 30 January, and its eastward continuation was seen in a RCM-1 SAR NRCS image at 1136 UTC image on 31 January (below).

SAR NCRS images from Sentinel-1A at 2324 UTC on 30 January and from RCM-1 at 1136 UTC on 31 January [click to enlarge]

A toggle between GOES-16 Visible images at 1801 UTC on 29 January and 31 January (below) showed the marked increase in ice coverage during that 48-hour period.

GOES-16 “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) images at 1801 UTC on 29 January and 31 January 2022 [click to enlarge]

In fact, a GLERL plot of current Lake Erie ice coverage compared to the historical average (below) showed that the percentage of ice cover had recently become well above average for the date.

Plot of current Lake Erie ice coverage (black) compared to the historical average (red) [click to enlarge]

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Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US winter storm

GOES-16 (GOES-East) Mid-level Water Vapor (6.9 µm) images (above) showed the widespread precipitation (WPC Storm Summary) produced by a midlatitude cyclone that rapidly intensified off the Northeast US coast on 29 January 2022.GOES-16 Water Vapor images with hourly plots of wind barbs and gusts (below) showed that the highest wind gusts occurred near the New England coast.GOES-16... Read More

GOES-16 Mid-level Water Vapor (6.9 µm) images, with hourly surface weather type plotted in yellow [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

GOES-16 (GOES-East) Mid-level Water Vapor (6.9 µm) images (above) showed the widespread precipitation (WPC Storm Summary) produced by a midlatitude cyclone that rapidly intensified off the Northeast US coast on 29 January 2022.

GOES-16 Water Vapor images with hourly plots of wind barbs and gusts (below) showed that the highest wind gusts occurred near the New England coast.

GOES-16 Mid-level Water Vapor (6.9 µm) images, with hourly surface wind barbs plotted in red [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

GOES-16 Air Mass RGB images (below) included contours of RAP40 model PV1.5 pressure — an indicator of the height of the “dynamic tropopause” — which showed that the dynamic tropopause had briefly descended to the 900 hPa pressure level at 20 UTC.

GOES-16 Air Mass RGB images, with contours of RAP40 model PV1.5 pressure plotted in cyan [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

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Lake Effect snow over Chicago

Lake Effect snow moved over Chicago on 28 January 2022. Along-lake winds, as shown below in scatterometry from this site, produced a single snow band that released on Chicago. The image above shows Nighttime microphysics with and without radar displayed. Once the relationship between the radar and the RGB is established, it is... Read More

GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics with and without radar at 0641 UTC on 28 January 2022 (Click to enlarge)

Lake Effect snow moved over Chicago on 28 January 2022. Along-lake winds, as shown below in scatterometry from this site, produced a single snow band that released on Chicago. The image above shows Nighttime microphysics with and without radar displayed. Once the relationship between the radar and the RGB is established, it is not difficult to monitor the stationarity of the band.

Great Lakes scatterometry at 0000 and 1200 UTC on 28 January 2022 (Click to enlarge)
GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics with and without radar at 1001 UTC 28 January 2022 (Click to enlarge)

After sunrise, other ABI bands are available to highlight precipitating lake-effect snowbands. RGB combinations that include Band 5 (1.6 µm) are of particular use because they can highlight glaciation in the cloud. Consider the examples below showing two RGBs and visible imagery with and without radar overlain. Which one would you choose and use to highlight the precipitating snow band? Will that choice change with sun angle, do you think?

GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB with and without radar at 1536 UTC 28 January 2022 (Click to enlarge)
GOES-16 Band 2 Visible (0.64 µm) with and without radar at 1536 UTC 28 January 2022 (Click to enlarge)
GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB with and without radar at 1536 UTC 28 January

The Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB, below, animated from 1426 to 1921 UTC (click here to see the animation without observations), highlights the narrow nature of the band as it moves inland over Chicago.

GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase Distinction with hourly surface observations, 1426 – 1921 UTC on 28 January 2022 (Click to enlarge)

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Heavy Rain threat over the Samoan Islands

Microwave-derived estimates of Total Precipitable Water (TPW), above, from MIMIC TPW, show an increase in moisture around the Samoan Islands to the west of 170o W. Percent of Normal mappings of blended TPW in this region, as shown below (taken from this site), show values at >150% of normal.In anticipation of heavy... Read More

MIMIC Total Precipitable Water over the South Pacific Ocean, 0000 UTC on 25 January – 2100 UTC on 27 January 2022 (click to enlarge)

Microwave-derived estimates of Total Precipitable Water (TPW), above, from MIMIC TPW, show an increase in moisture around the Samoan Islands to the west of 170o W. Percent of Normal mappings of blended TPW in this region, as shown below (taken from this site), show values at >150% of normal.

Percent-of-Normal TPW from the NOAA/NESDIS Blended TPW Product website, 1800 UTC on 27 January 2022 (Click to enlarge)

In anticipation of heavy rains, the National Weather Service Pacific Region requested a Mesoscale Domain (a complete list of messages is here) centered on Tutuila, the main island of American Samoa, through 1100 UTC on 28 January. An animation of GOES-17 Band 13, below, (every 5 minutes, rather than the 1-minute cadence of Mesoscale domains) overlain on top of the Level 2 Total Precipitable Water product (a product that is computed hourly for the Full Disk domain), shows a focus of convection moving westward over American Samoa and Samoa. Note the degradation of the Level 2 Product TPW that is associated with the poor functionality of the Loop Heat Pipe on GOES-17 that occurs at night. Magenta values in the TPW enhancement signify values exceeding 2″. Samoa and American Samoa are within a ribbon of exceptional moisture.

GOES-17 Mesoscale 2 domain Band 13 (Clean Window, 10.35 µm) overlain on top of clear-sky Full Disk Total Precipitable Water, 0900 – 2144 UTC on 28 January 2022 (Click to enlarge)

GOES-17 Visible Imagery, below, during the daytime, also show widespread convection moving into the Samoan waters. A benefit of the visible imagery is that surface lines of convergence that may initiate convection are apparent with the 5-minute cadence shown below; those lines are even more apparent in 1-minute imagery (shown here from 1825 – 2234 UTC)

GOES-17 Band 2 Visible (0.64 µm) Imagery, 1734 – 2144 UTC on 27 January 2022 (Click to enlarge)

Added, 28 January: the two final hours of the mesoscale domain are shown below. The axis of the deepest moisture has shifted westward through the mesoscale domain from the previous day; showers continue to develop.

GOES-17 Clean Window infrared (Band 13, 10.35 µm) and Total Precipitable Water, 0903 – 1102 UTC (Click to enlarge)

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