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Fog in and around the Aleutians

The hourly animation above shows the GOES-17 Night time Microsphysics RGB over and surrounding the Aleutian Islands, from 0800 – 1300 UTC on 18 May 2022. Yellowish features are low clouds in this RGB; low clouds at warmer temperatures have a blue/cyan tint because the inclusion of Band 13 infrared... Read More

GOES-17 Night time Microphysics RGB over the Aleutian Islands and surrounding waters, hourly from 0800 -1300 UTC on 18 May 2022 (Click to enlarge)

The hourly animation above shows the GOES-17 Night time Microsphysics RGB over and surrounding the Aleutian Islands, from 0800 – 1300 UTC on 18 May 2022. Yellowish features are low clouds in this RGB; low clouds at warmer temperatures have a blue/cyan tint because the inclusion of Band 13 infrared (10.3 µm) brightness temperatures in the ‘blue’ part of the RGB will change the color representation of low clouds. High clouds — red in the RGB — are also present along the western edge of the domain, over the Bering Sea — and are apparent as thin clouds over the low clouds over the Aleutians, visible as purple streaks.

Are the low clouds shown above fog — that is, are the clouds touching the surface? That’s hard to tell with certainty over Marine Environments. The single surface observation — at St Paul Island (PASN) in the Bering Sea, does show fog/low stratus present, and IFR conditions. An inference from that observation might be extended into the entire region. Real-time webcams and ship observations can also help with the determination of whether low clouds are actually banks of fog.

IFR Probability fields, below, for the same 6 observation times, incorporate model-derived estimates of low-level saturation, suggesting more low-level variability to the low clouds/fog over the Bering Sea (and in the Gulf of Alaska south of the Aleutians); that’s shown more clearly in this toggle between the two fields at 1200 UTC. Note also that a useful signal is produced underneath the high clouds at the western edge of the domain: even though the satellite gives no direct observations of the low-level clouds there, model estimates can nevertheless give information on low-level saturation.

GOES-17 IFR Probability fields, hourly from 0800 – 1300 UTC on 18 May 2022 (Click to enlarge)

When the sun is above the horizon, the Night time Brightness temperature difference field (10.3 µm – 3.9 µm) signal flips sign because of the large amounts of 3.9 µm solar reflectance; thus the Nighttime Microphysics RGB is less useful in low-cloud detection. The toggle below compares the Night Time Microphysics RGB and the IFR Probability field at 0400 UTC. Note that the observation at St Paul Island at this time does not show IFR conditions — and IFR Probabilities there are not quite so large as later, as displayed in the animations above.

Nighttime Microphysics RGB and IFR Probability fields, 0400 UTC on 18 May 2022, along with surface observations (Click to enlarge)

The imagery above were all captured using a National Weather Service AWIPS machine, with dataflow over the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN) that supplies data products to the offices. What if you don’t have that resource? RealEarth contains Full-Disk IFR and Low IFR Probability fields from GOES-16 and GOES-17 (search for IFR within the search box at the RealEarth website). An animation of IFR Probability from GOES-17, from 1000 UTC – 1250 UTC, at 10-minute steps (the scanning cadence of GOES-17 Full Disk imagery) is below.

IFR Probability fields, 1000 – 1250 UTC on 18 May 2022 (click to enlarge)

GOES-17 Full-Disk Nighttime microphysics RGB imagery is available from a variety of sources. For example, it’s at the NOAA/NESDIS Imagery viewer (link); at the CIRA Slider ; the mp4 animation below is taken from a coming upgrade to the CSPP Geosphere site that shows Night time Microphysics RGB imagery at night (and true color imagery during the day).

GOES-17 Nighttime Microphysics RGB, 1000 – 1300 UTC on 18 May 2022

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Another pyrocumulonimbus cloud spawned by the Calf Canyon Fire in New Mexico

Preliminary / non-operational GOES-18 “Red” Visible (0.64 µm), Shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm) and “Clean” Infrared Window (10.35 µm) images (above) showed that the Calf Canyon Fire/Hermits Peak Fire in northern New Mexico produced another another pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) cloud on 14 May 2022 — following 2 previous pyroCb events on 10 May and 01 May. This particular pyroCb first exhibited cloud-top infrared brightness... Read More

GOES-18 “Red” Visible (0.64 µm, top), Shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm, center) and “Clean” Infrared Window (10.3 µm, bottom) images, with hourly plots of surface reports [click to play animated GIF | MP4]

Preliminary / non-operational GOES-18 “Red” Visible (0.64 µm), Shortwave Infrared (3.9 µm) and “Clean” Infrared Window (10.35 µm) images (above) showed that the Calf Canyon Fire/Hermits Peak Fire in northern New Mexico produced another another pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) cloud on 14 May 2022 — following 2 previous pyroCb events on 10 May and 01 May. This particular pyroCb first exhibited cloud-top infrared brightness temperature (IR BT) values of -40C and colder (shades of blue in the bottom panel) at 2211 UTC, and later attained IR BTs in the -50s C (shades of red in the bottom panel).

A comparison of Suomi-NPP VIIRS True Color RGB, False Color RGB, Infrared Window and Shortwave Infrared images valid at 2032 UTC is shown below. These VIIRS images were acquired and processed using the Direct Broadcast ground station at SSEC/CIMSS.

Suomi-NPP VIIRS True Color RGB, False Color RGB, Infrared Window (11.45 µm) and Shortwave Infrared (3.74 µm) images [click to enlarge]

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Polar Hyperspectral Modeling for a narrow line of convection

A narrow ribbon of Slight RIsk was forecast for parts of the midwest on 13 Friday 2022, as shown below, and a few severe weather events occurred (SPC Storm Reports); they were well forecast. How did the Polar Hyperspectral Sounding forecast system perform on this day? The toggle above shows a 7-h forecast... Read More

PHSnABI 7-h and 1-h forecasts of CAPE valid at 2300 UTC on 13 May 2022 along with GOES-16 Derived CAPE overlaid with GOES-16 Band 13 Infrared (Band 13, 10.3 µm) imagery, GOES-16 Visible Imagery (Band 2, 0.64 µm) overlain with Radar imagery, and GOES-16 Visible Imagery alone (Click to enlarge)

A narrow ribbon of Slight RIsk was forecast for parts of the midwest on 13 Friday 2022, as shown below, and a few severe weather events occurred (SPC Storm Reports); they were well forecast. How did the Polar Hyperspectral Sounding forecast system perform on this day? The toggle above shows a 7-h forecast of CAPE (initialized at 1600 UTC and valid at 2300 UTC). It’s noteworthy that the forecast also shows a narrow corridor of instability. A similar toggle, but starting with the 0-h initial field of PHSnABI derived CAPE from the model at 2200 UTC, is here.

SPC Day 1 Outlook, 13 May 2022, issued at 2000 UTC (Click to enlarge)

The toggle below shows the 7-h forecast compared to the GOES-16 ABI Derived CAPE. A similar toggle, here, compares the 1-h forecast (initialized at 2200 UTC, valid at 2300 UTC) with the 2300 UTC Derived CAPE observed from GOES. The 7-h forecast below might be too far to the east; however, the developing convection associated with ribbon of instability is removed from the leading edge of the CAPE.

7-h forecast of CAPE from PHSnABI Modeling system and GOES-16 Derived Stability CAPE (overlain with GOES-16 ABI Band 13 Infrared imagery (10.3 µm) at 2300 UTC on 2300 UTC 13 May 2022 (click to enlarge)

Precipitation forecasts from this event (available at this website) are shown below, starting with two forecasts valid at 2300 UTC: a 3-h forecast from 2000 UTC and a 1-h forecast from 2200 UTC. They both show strongest convection over western IL, as observed. The 2000 UTC forecast also shows the break in convection over southern WI, also as observed.

PHSnABI forecasts of 1-h precipitation at 2300 UTC valid from initial times of 2000 and 2200 UTC on 13 May 2022 (Click to enlarge)
Accumulated 1-h precipitation from the PHSnABI model initialized at 2200 UTC on 13 May 2022; forecasts valid at 2300 UTC on 13 May, 0000 and 0100 UTC 14 May 2022 (Click to enlarge)

The PHSnABI modeling system accurately showed the corridor of instability over the Great Lakes, and convection did develop with this instability as observed. (Note: forecasts initialized before 1700 UTC did not produce precipitation; observations from the afternoon overpasses of NOAA-20 and Suomi-NPP perhaps supplied the necessary information leading to a better prediction of precipitation). Radar imagery over WI at 0054 UTC on 14 May 2022 is shown below. The initial (very narrow) line of convection did produce precipitation over Madison, but precipitation moved over Madison from the south after 0100 UTC.

Base Reflectivity at 0054 UTC on 14 May 2022 (click to enlarge)

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GOES-18 ABI Imagery Comparisons

NOAA and NASA recently released the first ABI (Advanced Baseline Imager) imagery from GOES-18. GOES-T was launched on March 1, 2022. (see the GOES-T launch as GOES-16 and GOES-17 monitored the rocket signature). GOES-18 is the third (of four) in the GOES-R series and is currently located above the equator at approximately 90W. GOES-18 is slated... Read More

NOAA and NASA recently released the first ABI (Advanced Baseline Imager) imagery from GOES-18. GOES-T was launched on March 1, 2022. (see the GOES-T launch as GOES-16 and GOES-17 monitored the rocket signature). GOES-18 is the third (of four) in the GOES-R series and is currently located above the equator at approximately 90W. GOES-18 is slated to become NOAA’s operational GOES-West in early 2023 after going through extensive post-launch testing. Also, see this CIMSS Satellite Blog post or this Satellite Liaison Blog post.

GOES-18 Compared to other GOES

Remapped GOES-16, -17 and -18 ABI data from 18 UTC on May 6, 2022.

While it is still very early in the post-launch test period, good qualitative agreement has been shown to other GOES imagers, except when comparing to GOES-17 during times it is affected by the Loop Heat Pipe issue. Of course, due to parallax and other reasons, there are expected to be differences, especially at larger view angles. The above loop as a mp4 and animated gif. Or versions that toggle between GOES-18 and GOES-16 only (mp4 and animated gif).

GOES-18 and GOES-16 Band 10 images at 14 UTC on May 6, 2022.

GOES-18 images of the western United States collected by the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on May 6, 2022. The GOES-18 ABI band 10 (7.3 micrometers) image is on the left, while the GOES-16 image is on the right. Note that the data are in the same projection. Warmer brightness temperatures are mapped to warmer colors. Time animations (from 12 to 22 UTC) of these 2 panels are available for each band: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16 (mp4).

Remapped GOES-17 and GOES-18 Band 10 images at 18 UTC on May 6, 2022.

GOES-18 image of the United States collected by the ABI on May 6, 2022. The GOES-18 ABI band 10 (7.3 micrometers) image is on the right, while the GOES-17 image is on the left. This 2-panel “water vapor” image shows overall agreement, with less noise shown on GOES-18 compared with GOES-17. These GOES-18 ABI are early images, calibration improvements are possible. Time animations (from 12 to 22 UTC) of these 2 panels are available for each band: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16 (mp4).

3-panel Comparisons (GOES-17, -18, -16)

These 3.9 mircometer band comparisons are thanks to Scott Bachmeier. Direct links for the CA and NM cases of a CIMSS Satellite Blog.

ABI Instrument Response Functions

“Flight Model 3” or GOES-18 ABI Spectral Response Functions for the 10 infrared bands.

The ABI has 16 spectral bands, 2 in the visible, 4 in the near-infrared (or “near-visible”) and 10 in the infrared part of the electromagnetic spectrum. The instrument response functions can be found both on CIMSS and Calibration Working Group sites.

H/T

Thanks to the many (thousands) who made the GOES-18 ABI possible. These are GOES-18 ABI are early images (preliminary and non-operational, future calibration improvements are possible. geo2grid and McIDAS-X software was used in generating these images. More about GOES-16 and GOES-17.

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