The Samoan Islands are again within a moisture-rich airmass, as shown by the MIMIC estimates of Total Precipitable Water shown below. The MIMIC fields do not show obvious gradient that might be used to estimate when rains might be especially widespead. The airport at Pago Pago American Samoa has had a little under 2″ of rain the 24 hours ending at around 9 AM Samoa Standard Time on 9 April. Flood Warnings were posted... Read More
The National Weather Service forecast office on Guam (where the National Weather Service day begins!) has a very large Area Of Responsibility (AOR), as shown in this image; it stretches from the Equator northward to 25oN, and from the dateline west to 130oE. At ca. 1800 UTC on 1 April 2024 (no foolin’!) the... Read More
LightningCast is a product within the ProbSevere portfolio that uses 4 ABI (or AHI) channels to estimate the likelihood of a GLM observation within the next 60 minutes. For the past couple years, this product has been used experimentally over Guam (using Himawari-9 data), even though the product was trained using... Read More
It’s spring time on the Great Plains, which means strong dynamical systems that often bring blizzards as well as severe thunderstorms. A long-wave trough with an embedded 850-500mb jet streak created cyclogenesis in western Oklahoma and southwest Kansas on March 13, with associated low-level moisture return into eastern Kansas.The strong... Read More
