ProbSevere results over tidewater Virginia

May 6th, 2014 |
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NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere superimposed on MRMS radar display over southeastern Virginia. Times as indicated. (Click to enlarge)

 

The Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) exercise (Click here for the HWT blog) is ongoing at the Storm Prediction Center.  One of the new products being tested by forecasters is the NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere product. ProbSevere in the animation above highlighted a cell that produced hail. The AWIPS-2 readout suggests strong vertical growth, and strong glaciation, at 0215 UTC. (The HWT Blog entry on this storm is here) What did the satellite view?

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GOES-13 Visible Imagery (0.63 µm), times as indicated. (Click to enlarge)

Visible imagery, above, from just before sunset, shows nascent convective development east of Lynchburg over southeastern Virginia, and also older convection over the Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva Peninsula. The infrared imagery (10.7 µm), below, shows rapid development of convection over southeastern Virginia after 0000 UTC. The first convective cell, which cell is east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina at 0315 UTC, had cloud-tops that cooled about 12 C in 17 minutes (between 0115 and 0132 UTC); the storm that produced hail, and was warned, had cloud-tops that cooled 20 C in 13 minutes, between 0202 UTC and 0215 UTC. This strong vertical growth contributes to a big increase in the ProbSevere value.

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GOES-13 Infrared Imagery (10.7 µm), times as indicated. (Click to enlarge)

When interpreting the radar and satellite imagery, be aware of the effects of parallax on the satellite imagery. GOES-13 imagery displayed here is not corrected for parallax. GOES-13 data are parallax-corrected when used in ProbSevere computations, of course.

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere Performance during Tornadic Outbreak

April 27th, 2014 |

Severe weather occurred over the southern Plains/lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday 27 April 2014 (SPC storm reports | GOES-13 IR image animation). How did the NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere product perform with these storms? Three examples are presented below.

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere estimates the likelihood that a growing convective storm will first produce severe weather within the next sixty minutes. The Product uses Rapid Refresh model environmental parameters (Most Unstable CAPE, and Environmental Shear), satellite (GOES-13 only, at present) observations of cloud growth and glaciation, and MRMS radar estimates of Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH). A convective tower that grows rapidly (as observed by satellite), for example, will be more likely to spawn severe weather in the next 60 minutes than one that grows more slowly. Similarly, as radar intensities increase, so too do the probabilities. The goal of this product is to increase the lead time for a warning by up to several radar scans.

MRMS Radar and ProbSevere readouts, 21:10, 21:22 and 22:08 UTC on 27 April 2014 [Click to enlarge]

MRMS Radar and ProbSevere readouts, 21:10, 21:22 and 22:08 UTC on 27 April 2014 [Click to enlarge]

The image above shows the radar at 21:10, 21:22 and 22:08 UTC, and also values used in the computation of the ProbSevere product, for a hail-producing storm just south of Dallas. The readout shows the most unstable CAPE and Environment Shear (averaged within the radar object that is outlined), the maximum satellite growth and the maximum glaciation rate that the radar object experienced, and also the MESH. In this case, MUCAPE is 4300-4400 J/kg and Environmental Shear is around 50 kts. The maximum satellite growth for the object being tracked is 1%/minute (% meaning percent of the depth of the troposphere) measured at 20:15 UTC (a time when the radar may or may not have been detecting the developing storm). This moderate growth rate stays attached to this growing convective feature at later times. The ProbSevere exceeded 50% at 21:10 UTC, the first warning was issued at 21:22 UTC and the first report of 1″ hail was at 21:45 UTC. (This storm later produced baseball-sized hail). The storm had moderate growth rates, but very large values of MUCAPE and Shear enhanced the probabilities. Glaciation Rate is reported as N/A, which typically means development under a pre-existing cirrus shield.  That was the case over Dallas, as shown in this animation of visible imagery from GOES-13.

As above, but at 21:20, 21:30 and 22:14 UTC 27 April 2014 [Click to enlarge]

As above, but at 21:20, 21:30 and 22:14 UTC 27 April 2014 [Click to enlarge]

The storm above, over northwestern Mississippi, showed strong satellite growth rates (2.4% per minute) and strong glaciation rates. Probabilities exceeded 50% at 21:14 UTC (just before the 21:20 UTC image shown above) and the first warning was issued at 21:30 UTC, with the first report at 22:31 UTC. This storm produced hail, wind and a tornado.

As above, but at 23:00, 23:08, 23:20 and 23:26 UTC 27 April 2014 [Click to enlarge]

As above, but at 23:00, 23:08, 23:20 and 23:26 UTC 27 April 2014 [Click to enlarge]

A third storm that affected the Kansas City metropolitan area is shown above. ProbSevere exceeded 50% at 23:00 UTC, the first warning was issued at 23:26 UTC and the first hail report occurred 23:31 UTC. Satellite growth for this storm is initially strong (1.5% per minute at 21:25 UTC), but the tracked object linked to that strong growth eventually were lost (Satellite Growth values were lost at 23:20 UTC) and probabilities decrease slightly; they remain relatively high because of the favorable environment and radar observations.

For all three examples above, the probabilities were highest with the convective system that produced the severe weather. The combination of the three components (Rapid Refresh, Radar, and Satellite) is key to the probability. Each individual component has strengths but the combination of predictors is what yields a skillful model with meaningful lead-time.



Severe weather continued on April 28th, including fatal storms in Mississippi.  The image below, however, is for a thunderstorm that formed in Missouri outside the region of SPC’s Slight Risk issued at 1300 UTC, and near the edge of the Slight Risk issued at 1630 UTC.

As above, but at 17:20, 17:22, 17:26 and 17:38 UTC 28 April 2014 [Click to enlarge]

As above, but at 17:20, 17:22, 17:26 and 17:38 UTC 28 April 2014 [Click to enlarge]

The ProbSevere for the developing cell is 24% at 17:20 UTC, with Strong Normalized Vertical Growth Rate (2.3%/min) and weak glaciation (0.01/min) observed at 1655 UTC. At 17:22 UTC, new satellite observations have been incorporated (from the 17:15 UTC scan): the Normalized Vertical Growth Rate is now 3.4%/min; in addition, Glaciation (0.17/Min) is also now strong. As a result, ProbSevere increases to 73%. The Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued 15 minutes later, at 17:37 UTC, 2 minutes after the first report of severe hail with this storm (in Holts Summit MO, in Callaway County).

 

The ProbSevere product will be evaluated at the Hazardous Weather Testbed to be held in Norman OK in May.

 

Strong Thunderstorms move through Washington DC.

May 14th, 2018 |

GOES-16 ABI Channel 13 “Clean Window” (10.3 µm) at 1-minute time-steps from 1607-2359 UTC on 14 May 2018 (Click to animate)

A GOES-16 Mesoscale Sector produced 1-minute imagery as a strong thunderstorm complex approached Washington DC late in the afternoon/early evening of 14 May 2018.  The (150-megabyte (!!)) animated gif above shows overshooting tops quickly developing and decaying as the complex moved over the Potomac Basin.  Winds in excess of 60 knots were reported around the Washington DC metropolitan area, with widespread tree damage. (Smaller MP4 animations with plots of SPC storm reports are also available: Infrared | Visible)

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere All Hazards (Source), below, showed very high ProbHail and ProbWind with this cell as it approached Washington DC.

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere All Hazards, 2200 UTC on 14 May 2018 (Click to enlarge)

GOES-16 Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data from Real Earth (Link for animation), below, shows an increase in electrical activity to the storms as they moved through Washington DC.

CONUS Hybrid Radar Reflectivity overlain with GLM observations, 2200-2330 UTC 14 May 2018 with 15-minute timestep.

Hail-producing storm on the High Plains of Colorado and Kansas

May 14th, 2018 |

GOES-16 Red Visible (0.64 µm) from 1212 on 14 May 2018 through 0037 UTC on 15 May 2018 (Click to animate)

A Thunderstorm complex moved through eastern CO into western Kansas on 14 May 2018, producing 2 to 3 inch hail in Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties in east-central Colorado and in Wallace County in northwest Kansas (SPC Storm Reports). Visible animation (0.64 µm) from GOES-16, above, shows the storms initiating near metropolitan Denver before moving eastward across the Plains.

GOES-16 ABI Clean Window imagery (10.3 µm), below, shows very cold overshooting  tops associated with these storms, with brightness temperatures colder than -60º C.  The area of coldest cloud tops shows a pronounced southeastward motion.

GOES-16 ABI “Clean Window” Infrared Imagery (10.3 µm), 1212 UTC 14 May 2018 to 0037 UTC on 15 May 2018 (Click to animate)

The GOES-16 ABI “Snow/Ice” Channel (at 1.61 µm) is important in diagnosing cloud-top properties in convection, in particular because glaciated clouds absorb solar energy at 1.61 µm (rather than reflecting it).  Thus, glaciated cloud tops will look dark.  That is the case with this system, shown below.  Note that above-anvil cirrus banners are apparent in this animation as well towards the end, stretching west-southwest to east-northeast.  These above-anvil banners are very well correlated with severe weather. This link shows a toggle between the Visible (0.64 µm) and Snow/Ice (1.61 µm) bands at 2302 UTC on 14 May, during the time when hail was occurring in eastern Colorado.

GOES-16 ABI “Snow/Ice” Near-Infrared Imagery (1.61 µm), 1212 UTC 14 May 2018 to 0037 UTC on 15 May 2018 (Click to animate)

One of the Derived Products available from GOES-16 is Lifted Index. This animation, from 1212 UTC on 14 May through 0037 UTC on 15 May shows widespread Lifted Indices of -3º to -5º in the inflow into this thunderstorm. (The clear-sky only Lifted Index is plotted on top of the Snow/Ice 1.61 µm Imagery). Note also that dewpoints over the High Plains of Colorado and Kansas were fairly high for that region: 40s and 50s Fahrenheit. (Click to view 2007 UTC “Veggie” Band 0.86 µm imagery with surface metars plotted).

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere All Hazards showed very high probabilities for this cell at 2330 UTC, when it was over eastern Colorado, as shown below (Source).

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere All Hazards, 2330 UTC on 14 May 2018 (Click to enlarge)

As noted elsewhere (link, link), hail deposited by this storm in central Colorado (in Douglas and Elbert counties) was widespread enough to be visible from satellite, below.  The hail appears white in the visible (0.64 µm) imagery and dark in the 1.61 µm Snow/Ice imagery because ice strongly absorbs energy with wavelengths of 1.61 µm.

GOES-16 Band 2 (“Red Visible”, 0.64 µm) and Band 5 (“Snow/Ice”, 1.61 µm) imagery at 2217 UTC on 15 May 2018 showing hail on the ground in Douglas and Elbert counties, Colorado (Click to enlarge)

GOES-16 Band 2 (“Red Visible”, 0.64 µm) and Band 5 (“Snow/Ice”, 1.61 µm) imagery at 2217 UTC on 15 May 2018 showing hail on the ground in Douglas and Elbert counties, Colorado (Click to enlarge)

Once the severe convection moved closer to the Colorado/Kansas border, a second hail swath was later seen to the east-northeast, below.

GOES-16 “Red” Visible (0.64 µm, top) and Near-Infrared

GOES-16 “Red” Visible (0.64 µm, top) and Near-Infrared “Snow/Ice” (1.61 µm, bottom) images, with SPC storm reports (red) and hourly plots of surface reports [click to play MP4 animation]