GOES-14 SRSOR: Flash flooding in the Las Vegas, Nevada region

August 14th, 2014
GOES-14 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

GOES-14 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

The GOES-14 satellite was placed into Super Rapid Scan Operations for GOES-R (SRSOR) mode on 14 August 2014, providing imagery at 1-minute intervals with the goal of monitoring the western US for convection and/or wildfire activity. McIDAS images of 0.63 µm visible channel data (above; click image to play animation; also available as an MP4 movie file) showed the development of clusters of slow-moving thunderstorms in the Las Vegas, Nevada region. These storms produced strong winds (gusts estimated at 60 mph) and heavy rainfall which caused flash flooding: Boulder City in far southern Nevada (located just east of Henderson, station identifier KHND) received 0.75 inch of rain in only 30 minutes. In addition to the state boundaries and yellow station identifiers, Interstate highways are drawn in red and State highways are cyan.

Another item of interest to note on the GOES-14 visible images: Lake Mead located to the east of Las Vegas was at an all-time record low level (1080.19 feet on 12 August) since it was filled back in the 1930s. The dark blue map outline represents the boundary of the lake as recently as the mid-1990s; the current area occupied by the darker water in Lake Mead’s Overton Arm (which extends northward) is drastically smaller in size, a result of the long-term severe to extreme drought.

AWIPS-2 images of the GOES-15 sounder Total Precipitable Water (TPW) derived product (below; click image to play animation) showed that these thunderstorms developed along a very sharp moisture boundary that was oriented roughly southwest to northeast across the area — TPW values of 30-40 mm (1.2-1.6 inches, yellow to red color enhancement) were seen east of the boundary, with TPW values of 10-20 mm (0.4-0.8 inch, shades of blue) west of the boundary.

GOES-15 sounder Total Precipitable Water derived product images (click to play animation)

GOES-15 sounder Total Precipitable Water derived product images (click to play animation)

Severe thunderstorm strikes Virginia campground

July 24th, 2014
GOES-13 10.7 µm IR channel images (click to play animation)

GOES-13 10.7 µm IR channel images (click to play animation)

A supercell thunderstorm intensified as it moved eastward across the Chesapeake Bay (just ahead of an approaching surface cold front) on the morning of 24 July 2014 — as it reached the Virginia shore of the Delmarva Peninsula, it produced an EF-1 tornado and damaging straight line winds that were responsible for 2 fatalities and 36 injuries at the Cherrystone Family Camping Resort (located at the * symbol on the images). The storm also produced golf ball to baseball size hail (NWS damage survey | SPC storm reports). McIDAS images of GOES-13 10.7 µm IR channel data (above; click image to play animation; also available as an MP4 movie file) showed that the cloud-top IR brightness temperatures associated with the storm cooled quickly, from -45º C at 11:15 UTC to -64º C at 12:30 UTC. The temperature value was close to that of the tropopause (at a height of 15.4 km) on the 12 UTC rawinsonde data from Wallops Island, Virginia.

The corresponding GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (below; click image to play animation; also available as an MP4 movie file) revealed the presence of an overshooting top at 12:30 UTC  (the time that the IR cloud-top brightness temperature values reached their minimum), which was also flagged by the automated Overshooting Tops detection algorithm.

GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

AWIPS-II images of the NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere product (below) followed the radar feature associated with the supercell thunderstorm. Around 11:30 UTC, the ProbSevere value was low, around 5-10%, a result of weak satellite-detected growth (and moderate glaciation) early in the storm’s life, along with low values of MRMS Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH). Environmental parameters from the Rapid Refresh model that were supportive of convection: MUCAPE exceeded 2200 J Kg and Shear values were greater than 30 m/s. As the cell tracked to the east and began to move over Chesapeake Bay, both MUCAPE and Shear gradually increased, to values near 2400 J/kg and 35 m/s, respectively. MRMS MESH was oscillating as the cell approached Chesapeake Bay, from 0.44 inches at 11:42 UTC (ProbSevere value of 10%) to 0.37 inches at 11:46 UTC (ProbSevere of 7%) to 0.65 inches at 11:48 UTC (ProbSevere of 29%) to 0.56 inches at 12:00 UTC (ProbSevere of 18%). As the storm moved over the Bay, MESH sizes jumped, to 0.86″ at 12:04 UTC (ProbSevere of 58%, the first crossing of the 50% threshold), to 1.02″ at 12:06 UTC (ProbSevere of 71%), to 1.86″ at 12:12 UTC (ProbSevere of 92% , the first crossing of the 90% threshold), and to 3.09″ (!) at 12:16 UTC (ProbSevere of 91%). At 12:20 UTC, when the Tornado Warning was issued, MRMS MESH was 3.51″ and ProbSevere remained at 91%. Thus, the warning was issued 16 minutes after ProbSevere exceeded 50%, and 8 minutes after ProbSevere was greater than 90%. The NWS storm survey indicated that the campsite fatalities occurred around 12:33 UTC, or 13 minutes after the issuance of the tornado warning.

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere product

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere product

The rapid intensification of the system as it moved over the Chesapeake begs the question: was instability diagnosed? In the animation below, GOES-13 sounder Derived Product Images (DPI) of Lifted Index (top panel) and CAPE (bottom panel) showed a rich source of instability just south of the cloud-obscuring convection (and ahead of the southward-moving cold front). Lifted Index values derived at 1147 UTC were around -6 at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay (bright yellow enhancement); CAPE values were around 2500 J/kg (yellow and red enhancements).

GOES-13 Sounder DPI estimates of Lifted Index (top) and CAPE (bottom) [click to play animation]

GOES-13 Sounder DPI estimates of Lifted Index (top) and CAPE (bottom) [click to play animation]

Strong convective winds over Arkansas

July 23rd, 2014
GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

Arkansas and surrounding states experiences strong convectively-forced winds on July 23 2014 (SPC Storm Reports for the day are shown below). The visible imagery, above, shows the merging of two convective systems: one is moving south-southeastward through eastern Kansas and one is building southwestward from the lower Ohio River Valley into northern Arkansas. (Mesoscale Discussions for this event were issued from SPC at 1656 UTC, 1827 UTC and 2001 UTC on the 23rd).

Storm Reports from 23 July 2014

Storm Reports from 23 July 2014

GOES-13 Sounder DPI Lifted Index (click to play animation)

GOES-13 Sounder DPI Lifted Index (click to play animation)

Analyses from the GOES-13 Sounder (above) showed the atmosphere into which the convective features were building to be very unstable. A large area with Lifted Indices around -10 (light red) is present; values exceed -12 (purple) at 1800 UTC. GOES Sounder DPI Analyses of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy, below) (from this site) likewise show strong instability at the start of the day. Convection is initially at both ends of the area of most unstable air; by 1900 UTC, the end of the animation, it has overspread the entire region of instability.

GOES Sounder CAPE (click to play animation)

GOES Sounder CAPE (click to play animation)

GOES-13 10.7 µm infrared channel images (click to play animation)

GOES-13 10.7 µm infrared channel images (click to play animation)

The GOES-13 Infrared Imagery, above, likewise shows the convective systems from Kansas and from the lower Ohio Valley merging over Arkansas.

Suomi-NPP VIIRS data were available over Arkansas on two successive passes on 23 July, at 1829 UTC and 2010 UTC, and these high-resolution infrared images show the quick development and vigor of the convection. The high resolution allowed for the detection of very cold cloud tops at 2010 UTC; minimum values were near -88ºC! Coldest GOES-13 10.7 Brightness Temperatures at 2015 UTC (not shown) were -78ºC.

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.35 µm infrared channel images (click to enlarge)

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.35 µm infrared channel images (click to enlarge)

The storms produced considerable lightning as well, as shown in the animation below that overlays hourly lightning strikes on top of the Suomi NPP 11.35 µm imagery: there were 5800 strikes (400 positive) in the hour ending at 1800 UTC, and 12000 strikes (800 positive) in the hour ending at 2000 UTC!

Suomi NPP 11.35 µm infrared channel imagery and Detected Lightning (click to play animation)

Suomi NPP 11.35 µm infrared channel imagery and Detected Lightning (click to play animation)

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere showed values from 80-95% at the leading edge of the convection as it moved southward through Arkansas. In this event, satellite data were not available as one of the ProbSevere predictors because of the widespread cirrus shield. MRMS Mesh was generally in the 3/4″ to 1-1/2″ range; that combines with model CAPE values exceeding 4000 and generous shear lead to the high ProbSevere values.

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere display including MRMS Base Reflectivity, 1922-2128 UTC 23 July 2013 (click to play animation)

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere display including MRMS Base Reflectivity, 1922-2128 UTC 23 July 2013 (click to play animation)

Overshooting Tops, such as those apparent in the 11.35 µm imagery from Suomi NPP, above, can be detected automatically in GOES-13 10.7 µm imagery. The animation of auto-detected overshooting tops, below, from this site, shows a peak in convective intensity (as measured by the number of overshoots) between 2000 and 2100 UTC on the 23rd. This image shows the daily sum of detected overshoots. There is good spatial correlation between that image and the storm reports.

Overshooting Tops Detected from GOES-13, 1545-2300 UTC 23 July 2013 (click to play animation)

Overshooting Tops Detected from GOES-13, 1545-2300 UTC 23 July 2013 (click to play animation)

Finally, CRiS/ATMS data can be used to generate soundings (NUCAPS Soundings) that are available in AWIPS II. The image below shows the spatial coverage of soundings at 2000 UTC on 23 July. The NUCAPS sounding from the easternmost column, third point south of the Oklahoma/Texas border, bottom, is shown at the bottom of the post. The boundary layer of this sounding is too cool and dry — the surface temperature is around 80º F and the surface dewpoint is in the mid-60s. Consequently, the MUCAPE is far too small (about 120 J per kilogram). If the sounding is edited so that surface values are closer to observations (it was 90º F with a 75º F dewpoint in Texarkana at this time) then MUCAPE values jump to near 5000. The sounding is also too dry; the precipitable water is 1.45″ vs. an actual value closer to 2″ at this time.

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.35 µm Imagery at 2010 UTC, with NUCAPS Sounding Locations in Green (Click to enlarge)

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.35 µm Imagery at 2010 UTC, with NUCAPS Sounding Locations in Green (Click to enlarge)

Suomi NPP NUCAPS Sounding at 32.7º N, 94.9º W (Click to enlarge)

Suomi NPP NUCAPS Sounding at 32.7º N, 94.9º W (Click to enlarge)

Tropical Storm Arthur forms east of Florida

July 1st, 2014
GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

The first tropical depression (update: Arthur was named as a tropical storm at 1500 UTC 1 July) of the season in the tropical Atlantic has formed just to the east of Florida. The visible imagery animation, above, shows persistent strong thunderstorms with overshooting tops in the area of disturbed weather over the Gulf Stream and the Bahamas. Refer to the National Hurricane Center and the CIMSS Tropical Cyclones sites for particulars on the future track of this system. Note that current forecasts have the system strengthening to a hurricane in the next few days, and close to the North Carolina coast on July 4th.

Metop ASCAT surface scatterometer winds at 1541 UTC, below, indicated that the strongest winds (green barbs, 30-39 knots) were found within the northeastern quadrant of the tropical storm.

GOES-13 visible images with Metop ASCAT surface scatterometer winds (click to play animation)

GOES-13 visible images with Metop ASCAT surface scatterometer winds (click to play animation)

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GOES-13 10.7 µm infrared channel images (click to play animation)

GOES-13 10.7 µm infrared channel images (click to play animation)

The tropical Atlantic has lately been besieged by Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust (see, for example, this post from last week, or this image from today); that dry air suppresses tropical cyclone formation. The animation of GOES-13 10.7 µm imagery, above, shows that this Tropical Depression formed out of an impulse that sank southward from the Carolinas over the past 6 days, so its gradual development has not been impeded by the SAL.

The VIIRS instrument on board the Suomi NPP satellite provided high-resolution imagery over this tropical system shortly after midnight on the 1st (see below). A large cirrus shield with brightness temperatures cooler than -70º C (Green in the enhancement) with a few overshooting tops that are colder than -85º C are present. An analysis of some NUCAPS Soundings from this overpass is here.

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.35 µm infrared imagery, Day/Night Band imagery (0.70 µm) and lightning data at ~0715 UTC on 1 July 2014 (click to toggle through images)

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.35 µm infrared imagery, Day/Night Band imagery (0.70 µm) and lightning data at ~0715 UTC on 1 July 2014 (click to toggle through images)

Arthur’s projected track moves the storm up the East Coast over very warm waters associated with the Gulf Stream. Both MODIS and VIIRS analyses of SSTs show widespread temperatures in excess of 80º F.

A comparison of Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel images at 0717 UTC and 1840 UTC, below, showed that the areal coverage of cold cloud tops was increasing during the day on 01 July, but the deep convection remained well to the southeast of Arthur’s low-level center of circulation.

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel images

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel images

At 1840 UTC, a comparison of the Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel image with the corresponding 0.64 µm visible channel image with an overlay lightning data, below, revealed a large number of cloud-to-ground strikes within the 1-hour period ending at 1900 UTC.

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel image and 0.64 µm visible channel image (with lightning data)

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel image and 0.64 µm visible channel image (with lightning data)

===== 02 July Update =====

GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (click to play animation)

Arthur continued to slowly intensify on 02 July, and began to show hints of an organized eye structure on GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel images (above; also available as an MP4 movie file).

A comparison of AWIPS-2 images of Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.64 µm visible channel and 11.45 µm IR channel images (below) showed that the coldest cloud tops were north of the center of Arthur at 1822 UTC. A buoy just southwest of the center reported winds gusting to 52 knots (60 mph).

Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.64 µm visible channel and 11.45 µm IR channel images

Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.64 µm visible channel and 11.45 µm IR channel images

Even though an eye was not evident on GOES-13 10.7 µm IR channel imagery around 2045 UTC, a DMSP SSMIS 85 GHz microwave image at 2049 UTC did display a well-organized eye signature (below).

GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel image and DMSP SSMIS 85 GHz microwave image

GOES-13 0.63 µm visible channel image and DMSP SSMIS 85 GHz microwave image