A shortwave impulse spawned numerous supercell thunderstorms in a highly unstable and well-sheared environment in the Southeast U.S. ProbSevere v3 readily tracked numerous severe and tornadic storms across the region.One storm in particular produced tornadoes in Madison, Alabama, and prompted a tornado emergency warning. In this example, the ProbTor v3 was much higher... Read More

A negatively tilted shortwave trough and associated dynamical response created a rapidly deepening surface low in the Dakotas on May 15. These features worked together to bring high theta-E air from the southern U.S. up into Minnesota and Wisconsin, creating ample instability in the region. A strong mid-level jet streak... Read More

The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere portfolio contains AI models for nowcasting convective weather. I’ll use Monday’s severe weather over the Southern Plains to highlight several of them.A strong cold front spawned numerous severe-hail, wind, and tornado producing storms over Texas and Oklahoma, aided by very large values of convective available potential energy... Read More

A cold front with ample moisture and instability ahead of it spawned numerous strong storms in the Southeast U.S. yesterday; particularly one long-lived supercell in South Carolina. A convolutional neural network model (CNN) was deployed in realtime on the 1-min GOES-16 mesoscale sector imagery. The model produces an “Intense Convection... Read More