A mid-level atmospheric wave with subtle warm-air advection forced some strong thunderstorms in central Texas this morning. The operational high-resolution convection-allowing NWP models did not handle these storms well at all. ProbSevere LightningCast, an image-based AI model, picked up on the rapidly growing convection about 15-20 minutes before lightning initiation. LightningCast... Read More
1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector GOES-18 (GOES-West) “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) and “Clean” Infrared Window (10.3 µm) images (above), with and without an overlay of GLM Flash Extent Density, showed convection moving onshore in Southern California during the late morning hours on 24 February 2023 — which prompted NWS Los Angeles to issue a Tornado Warning at 1807... Read More
The animation above shows ProbSevere LightningCast probabilities over the Island of Guam for 80 minutes near noon local time on 6 October 2022 (imagery taken from this RealEarth website). The animation above shows LightningCast probabilities increasing from 0110 UTC (when a 10% contour appears) through 0140 UTC and 0150 UTC (when a... Read More
GOES-16 Visible Imagery, in the mp4 animation above (click here for an animated gif), shows convection initially over central Wisconsin at sunrise moving eastward over Lake Michigan into lower Michigan. In its wake, cloud lines extending east-west move southward into southward Wisconsin. Parallel lines such as these are typically associated with atmospheric bores, previously... Read More
