The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere LightningCast model uses GOES-R ABI reflectances and brightness temperatures along with artificial intelligence methods to predict next-hour lightning anywhere in the GOES-R field of view. It is particularly adept at nowcasting lightning initiation. A long, potent cold front spawned a number of storms from Iowa to Texas today... Read More

1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector GOES-18 (GOES-West) “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) and “Clean” Infrared Window (10.3 µm) images (above) included an overlay of GLM Flash Extent Density — which showed thunderstorms that produced flash flooding, hail and an EF-1 tornado (SPC Storm Reports) in the Central Valley of California on 11 March 2023. At 2236 UTC (1 minute prior to... Read More

A mid-level atmospheric wave with subtle warm-air advection forced some strong thunderstorms in central Texas this morning. The operational high-resolution convection-allowing NWP models did not handle these storms well at all. ProbSevere LightningCast, an image-based AI model, picked up on the rapidly growing convection about 15-20 minutes before lightning initiation. LightningCast... Read More

1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector GOES-18 (GOES-West) “Red” Visible (0.64 µm) and “Clean” Infrared Window (10.3 µm) images (above), with and without an overlay of GLM Flash Extent Density, showed convection moving onshore in Southern California during the late morning hours on 24 February 2023 — which prompted NWS Los Angeles to issue a Tornado Warning at 1807... Read More