GOES-14 SRSO-R Imagery over North Carolina

By Scott Lindstrom • 21 May 2015

GOES-14 0.62 µm visible imagery, above, (here as an mp4, and here as a very large (220+ megabytes) animated gif) shows the development of convection over eastern North Carolina in a region of slight risk according to SPC (below).

Day 1 Outlook for Convection from SPC, issued at 1300 UTC 21 May 2015 [click to enlarge]

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Mesoscale Discussion #713 from SPC, below, referenced the Super-Rapid scan imagery:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AREAS AFFECTED…E-CNTRL AND ERN NC / SC GRAND STRAND

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211611Z – 211745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…60 PERCENT

SUMMARY…SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND A WATCH
WILL STRONGLY BE CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION…SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW 30 MI W
SOP WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE SC PIEDMONT. A PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE/SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE GRAND STRAND VICINITY.
OBSERVATIONS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOCATED WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR SHOW TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 80 DEG F WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
SUPER RAPIDSCAN VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING TCU FIELD
IMMEDIATELY E OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH/CONFLUENCE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING IMPLIES A WEAK LEAD
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL NC AHEAD OF THE MID MS VALLEY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATER
TODAY. IT SEEMS THE WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE
LEAD IMPULSE COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC HEATING WILL ERODE THE
CAP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE IS PROBABLE
BY THE 18-19Z TIMEFRAME.

VEERING AND A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL
SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION ONCE A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS BECOME
ESTABLISHED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT MODERATE BUOYANCY AS OF 16Z
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND THIS SHOULD FAVOR STORM INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ONCE INITIATION COMMENCES. ISOLD LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. DESPITE TEMPERED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR…A TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF A
SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP AND FAVORABLY TRACK ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 05/21/2015

ATTN…WFO…AKQ…MHX…RAH…ILM…CAE…

LAT…LON 35267979 36097844 36297643 35847549 34977597 33737851
33897960 34497991 35267979

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The GOES-13 Sounder captured some of the destabilization that occurred ahead of the developing line of convection. Values less than -5 are widespread over southeastern North Carolina at 1600 UTC, after which time cirrus blowoff obscured the satellite view.

GOES-13 Sounder DPI values of Lifted Index, 1600 UTC 21 May 2015 [click to enlarge]

Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm infrared imagery and NUCAPS Sounding Points (in green), ~1730 and ~1900 UTC 21 May 2015 [click to enlarge]

Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.64 µm visible imagery and 1.61 µm near-infrared imagery 1903 UTC 21 May 2015 [click to enlarge]

Categories: GOES sounder, GOES-14, Suomi NPP, VIIRS, YouTube