A shortwave trough with moderate low-level flow spawned storms across the northern U.S. Below is the convective outlook discussion from the SPC at 16:30 UTC. ...Northern High Plains into the northern Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving eastward across southern Saskatchewan and western MT/eastern ID. A... Read More

In this post we see how ProbSevere v4 performs with Southeast microbursts, which are notoriously difficult. In parts of the Carolina, effective shear was a bit higher (20-30 kt), producing cell clusters. PSv4 probabilities and motion progressed well with these. Elsewhere, especially from Louisiana to Georgia, the shear and mean... Read More