In this post we see how ProbSevere v4 performs with Southeast microbursts, which are notoriously difficult. In parts of the Carolina, effective shear was a bit higher (20-30 kt), producing cell clusters. PSv4 probabilities and motion progressed well with these. Elsewhere, especially from Louisiana to Georgia, the shear and mean wind were very low (< 15 kt).

Despite the low shear, PSv4 does a decent job with low-to-moderate probabilities on most of these regions before wind gusts or damage was reported. Albeit, the average lead time was probably a bit less than usual, but that is typical for this regime.