A multi-day severe-weather outbreak occurred this week in the Southern Plains and Mid/Lower-Missippi Valley. Climatologically, this severe weather is right on schedule.Let’s look at ProbSevere v4 for three consecutive days.April 26, 2026The model did a nice job leading convection in Kansas and Missouri, and even in southeast Missouri where there... Read More

Scientists at CIMSS and NOAA/NSSL have been working on what we are calling ProbSevere v4. The goals are the same as previous version of ProbSevere: short-term prediction of severe convective hazards (large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes). The approach is very different. ProbSevere v4 does not use storm-object identification... Read More