ProbTor predictors


A priori = 0.01. Low MLCAPE and high MLCIN can reduce the a priori to as low as 0.001.


Max LLAzShear

Capped at a value of 18.


98th percentile LLAzShear / SRH 0-1km AGL

Capped at a ratio of 10.


Max flash density (in 30-min window) / 98th percentile MLAzShear

Capped at a ratio of 5.


EBShear / MeanWind 1-3km AGL

Capped at a ratio of 5.

Floor at a ratio 0f 0.4


ProbSevere uses data from NOAA-sourced or NOAA-contracted satellites, radars, lightning networks, and numerical weather prediction models. This webpage is hosted at the Space Science and Engineering Center at the University of Wisconsin. Any user of this webpage and its associated pages implicitly agrees to use the services and data available as is with no warranty issued or implied and should be used for informational purposes only. Any use of this data for decision making processes is done at the sole risk of the end user. Do not reproduce or disseminate without consent of University of Wisconsin-Madison CIMSS/SSEC. For more information about this product, please contact us.