Gridded NUCAPS over the ocean and IFR Probability

March 1st, 2022 |
Gridded NUCAPS estimates of low-level (1000 mb) dewpoint, and (CONUS) GOES-16 IFR Probability, 2100 UC on 28 February 2022 (Click to enlarge)

The image above (from 2100 UTC on 28 February 2022) and below (from 0930 UTC on 1 March 2022) toggle between low-level estimates of 1000-mb dewpoint and GOES-16 IFR Probability fields. Is there a general relationship between the two? At first blush, it does seem like the IFR Probability fields are affected by the strong gradient in low-level temperature, where the dewpoint drops from the teens (oC, grey/blue to cyan in the enhancement) to the single digits (purple and white in the enhancement). Note that SSTs in the region where the 1000-mb dewpoints are in the single digits are between 10 and 14 C at both ~2100 UTC 28 February and ~0930 UTC 1 March (ACSPO SSTs at the link are derived from Direct Broadcast data from CIMSS and are available via an LDM feed).

Gridded NUCAPS estimates of low-level (1000 mb) dewpoint, and (CONUS) GOES-16 IFR Probability, 0930 UC on 1 March 2022 (Click to enlarge)

The toggle below compares gridded NUCAPS estimates of 1000-mb relative humidity with Low IFR Probability fields. There again seems to be a relationship. How robust that relationship is is to be determined. This is the first in a series of blog posts that compares these two fields, as part of a way of better forecasting fog over the oceans.

Gridded NUCAPS estimates of low-level (1000 mb) relative humidity, and (CONUS) GOES-16 Low-IFR Probability, 0930 UC on 1 March 2022 (Click to enlarge)

AWIPS imagery in this blog post was created using the NOAA/NESDIS TOWR-S AWIPS Cloud Instance.

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