Using NUCAPS soundings in and around fire locations
GOES-16 Visible (0.64 µm) hourly imagery, 1811-2311 UTC on 6 September 2020 (click to enlarge)
GOES-16 Visible imagery, above, during the late afternoon on 6 September, shows an invigoration of the Cameron Peak fire in Larimer County, Colorado, with visible evidence of a pyrocumulus development. Are there tools a forecaster can use to anticipate such extraordinary afternoon fire growth?
NOAA-20 overflew Colorado shortly after (NOAA-20 orbits can be viewed at this website) 2000 UTC on 6 September (see NUCAPS Sounding availability points below; note that the date of these plots — 1951 UTC — corresponds to the time of the first NUCAPS swath is available in AWIPS from this NOAA-20 pass; for this ascending pass, that swath is near 40 S latitude!)
NUCAPS Sounding Points from the 2000 UTC overpass on 6 September 2020 (Click too enlage)
What do the NUCAPS Sounding surrounding Larimer County Colorado look like? The animation below steps through the profiles surrounding the fire. Consider using the LCL and EL information (and other information) in these profiles when diagnosing the likelihood of convection developing in response to an intense fire. On this day, NUCAPS showed steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates that help support pyrocumulonimbus.
Select NUCAPS Soundings and thermodynamic variables (from AWIPS, locations as indicated) on 6 September 2020 (Click to enlarge)