Using GOES-R Level 2 stability products to help nowcast the cessation of convective initiation

July 4th, 2020 |

GOES-16 Visible Imagery (0.64 µm), left, and Derived Stability estimates of Lifted Index (right), from 1001 to 1656 UTC on 4 July 2020 (click to animate)

The animation above shows GOES-16 visible imagery (Band 2, 0.64 µm) and stability indices. Initially an obvious gradient in stability is present where isolated convection is developing over southwestern Wisconsin. As the gradient relaxes, the convection dissipates even though instability is, in general increasing. A radar animation (clipped from RealEarth) is shown below.  The showers have largely dissipated over southwestern Wisconsin by 1700 UTC.

The absence of gradients in the derived stability product can often mean that convection will not initiate.  In this case, the relaxation of the gradient went hand-in-hand with the dissipation of convection.

MRMS Base Reflectivity, 1000 – 1700 UTC on 4 July 2020 (Click to enlarge)

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