Sinlaku: Forecast and future
By T+48 (00Z on the 19th) most of the models are fairly similar. All of the models except the EC seem to have maintained symmetry by that time. Almost all of the models have Sinlaku near about 150E, although the Met Office model is a bit slower with its eastward progression. The NOGAPS and the GFS are a bit farther north than the other models as well. After ET sets in, the models move the former Sinlaku at slightly different paces. NOGAPS seems a bit faster by +108, bringing Sinlaku just near the international date line.
The other three models have Sinlaku at about 170 E…moving it along a little bit slower. The EC model is the only one to keep Sinlaku south of 40 N.
Links: NOGAPS GFS ECMWF Met Office
What about the phase diagrams?
The GFS diagram already diagnoses an assymetric vortex. It transitions Sinlaku to a cold core vortex just before the 21st, and then makes it symmetric again by 18Z on the 23rd.
The NOGAPS diagram also transitions to a cold core by the 21st, starting from an assymetric vortex. It maintains this fully extra-tropical storm throughout the forecast period.
The 12Z Met Office model diagram has Sinlaku just on the edge of being a cold core system. Towards the end of it’s forecast period, it also makes it more symmetric.
The plan is to continue to fly Sinlaku from 00Z (C-130) and 02Z (P-3) on the 20th. Hopefully this will capture and measure the continued transition.
Tags: Extra Tropical Transiton, Sinlaku, TCS033, Track