Sinlaku is a Typhoon once again…and then back to a Tropical Storm
As of 00Z on the 19th, Sinlaku was upgraded once again to a Typhoon by JTWC. Then, by 12Z on the 19th it was downgraded to a tropical storm
This Mimic animation shows Sinlaku’s eyewall development with convection building to it’s south, and then subsequent weakening:
MIMIC animation of Sinlaku from 12Z on the 18th to 12Z on the 19th. Notice how convection develops on its southwest side as it intensifies.
Sinlaku is still under the duel effects of shear and strong upper-level outflow from the midlatitude westerlies. Both the divergence and shear plots are attached below:
- IR MTSAT Image, upper-level AMVs and analyzed divergence. Valid 13Z on September 19th, 2008
MTSAT IR Image and upper-level shear. Valid 13Z September 19th, 2008.
Again, Sinlaku’s motion is aligned fairly well along the shear axis, perhaps limiting it’s negative impact on its intensity somewhat. The enhanced outflow from the upper-levels and relatively high SSTs are competing with the shear. The shear will likely win out and Sinlaku will weaken.
Satcon shows the weakening as well, with the ADT producing much lower intensities than previous satcon analyses:
Satcon for Sinlaku. The ADT is currently producing weaker estimates than previous satcon estimates.
Yesterday and today the P-3 and C-130 will focus on Sinlaku and try and capture it’s ET. This is first time that extra-tropical transition has been captured by recon in the west pacific.
What about the forecast?
They will be the focus of subsequent blogs.
Tags: Extra Tropical Transiton, intensity, Sinlaku, TCS033