Potential Developer?? TCS025
We’re looking at some clusters of convection, roughly centered on TCS025 right now.
You can see the system in the animation below:
IR image, upper-level AMVs and analyzed divergence. Valid 19z 26 August, 2008.
This system is on the southside of an upper level low with underneath a fairly good region of upper level divergence. In the GFS, this system develops over the next 24 hours or so (12z on the 27th) as seen in this vorticity loop. The system moves up towards Japan and weakens over the next few days according to the model. It will be worth looking at this structure as it develops over the next 24 hours.
Deep-layer wind shear and MTSAT Water Vapor Image. TCS026, located at about 18N 155E is just south of a region of fairly low shear.
If the GFS is correct in it’s motion, the shear analysis shown above has it moving into a region of relatively low shear.
This system is worth keeping an eye on for the next few days.
Tags: TCS025